Earlier quoted context omitted.
Anything that questions the value of vaccines should be suspected as misinformation, regardless of the source.
Is that sarcasm?
No, unfortunately.
Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
111–120 of 159 posts
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#112Some of the numbers in the tables seem strange to me. Looking at the participants, it is hard to understand how the mean and sd of the ages and age distributions can be exactly the same. Moreover, apparently the odds of being hospitalized are 160-times greater for vaccinated vs unvaccinated second infection individuals. Perhaps the dramatic differences are due to very low numbers - I did not see the raw numbers for s…
It's a matched cohort study. They're starting with a large population in both of their target groups, and then picking pairs of demographically identical people (e.g. age, sex, location), one from each group, for the study. So you'd certainly expect the age distributions to match up exactly.
It'd be more worrying if criteria they weren't doing the matching by also were exactly identical. That's not the case, all kinds of secondary characteristics such as comorbidities are roughly but not exactly the same.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#113Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death, possibly much higher (see update) by COVID itself . (The risk from the vaccine, without a Covid infection, is effectively nil based on hundreds of millions of doses administered.) Natural immunity comes with a ~9x greater risk of hospitalisation, again from Covid itself. There's effectively no risk from the vaccine, again with hundreds of millions of doses…
The AP pegs the average mortality rate at 1.8% for COVID-19, or 1 out of 55 cases.[1] The CDC says the mortality rate for vaccination is 0.0019%, which my imperfect math says is about 1 out of 53,000 vaccinations.[2] These statistics indicate natural immunity on average exposes the person to roughly 1,000x data-derived historical risk of death on average, when compared to vaccination, so I'm not sure what is the sour…
I don't know where the AP is getting their numbers but the CDC estimated an average mortality rate of 0.6% for Americans.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
Most other countries have had lower mortality rates because the average American is older, and has more co-morbid conditions such as obesity.
For vaccinated patients the mortality rate is close to zero.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#114Yeah, whatever. How long does immunity last? I had Covid in February, kinda curious if I still have the antibodies. But I'm not paying 80 Euros to find out, unless you crowdfund me :D
There's more to immunity than antibodies. Even if you don't have detectible levels of antibodies your memory T cells may be providing some protection.
Many blood donation centers conduct free antibody tests for donors so you might want to check if that's an option.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
The AP pegs the average mortality rate at 1.8% for COVID-19, or 1 out of 55 cases.[1] The CDC says the mortality rate for vaccination is 0.0019%, which my imperfect math says is about 1 out of 53,000 vaccinations.[2] These statistics indicate natural immunity on average exposes the person to roughly 1,000x data-derived historical risk of death on average, when compared to vaccination, so I'm not sure what is the sour…
> The AP pegs the average mortality rate at 1.8% for COVID-19, or 1 out of 55 cases. This is nowhere near correct. The global median IFR for Covid-19 is somewhere around 0.3%. It varies substantially by region, but 1.8% is far higher than even the highest legitimate estimate. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/340124
Your source is a sole paper with one author, the guy who "estimated that the coronavirus could cause 10,000 U.S. deaths if it infected 1%"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ioannidis#cite_note-wp-28
Pardon the skepticism, but do you have any other sources?
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death. No it doesn't. There are O(100) deaths from O(1 billion) vaccinations. That's about 100000x lower risk than from Covid itself, not just 10-25x.
I'm looking for a source, though the 25x factor was part of the 29 July 2021 CDC leaked report. I'm happy to correct / update my comment with a reputable source. From US CDC: Reports of death after COVID-19 vaccination are rare. More than 363 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through August 23, 2021. During this time, VAERS received 6,968 reports of deat…
The claim was "Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death". That's a statement about the chance of dying from the vaccine to the chance of dying from Covid.
The numbers you're actually using are something quite different: they're comparing the chance of dying from Covid if vaccinated, vs. the chance of dying from Covid if unvaccinated.
The only credible reports of Covid vaccine fatalities that I'm aware of were from the AZ and J&J ones, and seemed to be on the order of 100 cases in all European countries before the use of those vaccines was stopped at least for the at-risk group (young women).
If the chance of dying from the vaccine was only 10x lower than that of dying from Covid, we'd have millions of dead from the vaccine. We don't.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe. I quibble with "no significant herd immunity." I'm in an area with a very high vaccination rate (>87% of those over age 12 having had at least one dose, >80% fully vaccinated). Our case counts are a fraction of the rest of the country. The country's rates would be expected to be 3x lower if we could simply extrapolate my locale's rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated people to those fractions of the populati…
Case counts are meaningless as they largely reflect the level of testing. In most places there's not enough random population testing going on to get accurate infection counts. In the US the CDC estimates that infections are about 4× officially counted "cases".
My locale also has the highest reported rates of testing that you'll find. Indeed, if you discount case counts and choose objective measures of increases in hospitalization (small to moderate) or increases in deaths (not detectable yet), the picture is even more tilted in the direction I describe.
That is, it seems we undercount less here, so the difference in true rates is even greater than I claim above.
Unfortunately, hospitalization and death rates are not broken out by vaccination status, and are low enough that they'd be mostly noise even if they were. This precludes doing the same kinds of analysis with death or hospitalization data.
And, of course, the fact that my locale takes things more seriously on the whole is its own confound. That is, vaccination rates are not an independent variable.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#118Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death, possibly much higher (see update) by COVID itself . (The risk from the vaccine, without a Covid infection, is effectively nil based on hundreds of millions of doses administered.) Natural immunity comes with a ~9x greater risk of hospitalisation, again from Covid itself. There's effectively no risk from the vaccine, again with hundreds of millions of doses…
>This information is interesting, but a poor basis on which to shift policy from vaccination to infecting the entire population and blessing the survivors. Only if we were starting from a point of nobody having been infected already. In LA, Chicago, NYC, Miami, ~50% of the population has been infected[0]. If the Israeli study is accurate, then all of those people should be considered as immune as vaccinated, therefor…
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Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#119I know this is a controversial take, but it should be in our national interest to get young children exposed and gain natural immunity, and avoid giving them the vaccine we have so little long-term data on. According to the CDC, 450 kids (0-18yo) died from Covid-19 since Jan 2020. A total of 4.6M kids tested positive since then. In the much shorter 2017-2018 Flu season, ~650 kids (0-17) died. We really have to keep t…
Right, but those deaths were in an environment when there were interventions to protect people. Take away those interventions and you have more deaths.
That's (probably) correct for the population as a whole, but the case is much less clear as far as kids are concerned.
For example, look at the 0-14 graph of excess deaths at https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps. It would be very hard to say that 2020 and 2021 are any different from any other year as far as kids are concerned. During that time we had all sorts of lockdown on, lockdown off, masks on, masks off, vaccines, school open, school close, but the graph stays within its normal pre-covid variance irrespective of all these interventions.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm looking for a source, though the 25x factor was part of the 29 July 2021 CDC leaked report. I'm happy to correct / update my comment with a reputable source. From US CDC: Reports of death after COVID-19 vaccination are rare. More than 363 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through August 23, 2021. During this time, VAERS received 6,968 reports of deat…
The claim was "Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death". That's a statement about the chance of dying from the vaccine to the chance of dying from Covid. The numbers you're actually using are something quite different: they're comparing the chance of dying from Covid if vaccinated, vs. the chance of dying from Covid if unvaccinated. The only credible reports of Covid vaccine fatalities that I'm aw…
That's a statement about the chance of dying from the vaccine to the chance of dying from Covid.
Fair point. The risk from the vaccine itself is de minimus.
I've updated my comment to clarify.