Some of the numbers in the tables seem strange to me. Looking at the participants, it is hard to understand how the mean and sd of the ages and age distributions can be exactly the same. Moreover, apparently the odds of being hospitalized are 160-times greater for vaccinated vs unvaccinated second infection individuals. Perhaps the dramatic differences are due to very low numbers - I did not see the raw numbers for symptomatic infection and hospitalization. But if I were reviewing this paper, I would wonder how they got their age distributions to match so closely.
Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
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Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#102Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death, possibly much higher (see update) by COVID itself . (The risk from the vaccine, without a Covid infection, is effectively nil based on hundreds of millions of doses administered.) Natural immunity comes with a ~9x greater risk of hospitalisation, again from Covid itself. There's effectively no risk from the vaccine, again with hundreds of millions of doses…
The AP pegs the average mortality rate at 1.8% for COVID-19, or 1 out of 55 cases.[1] The CDC says the mortality rate for vaccination is 0.0019%, which my imperfect math says is about 1 out of 53,000 vaccinations.[2] These statistics indicate natural immunity on average exposes the person to roughly 1,000x data-derived historical risk of death on average, when compared to vaccination, so I'm not sure what is the sour…
This is not a valid comparison because you're using the case fatality rate (1.8%), and case means symptomatic illness (a majority of infections are not symptomatic). A fair comparison would use the infection fatality rate (IFR), which is the risk of death after being infected.
Recent meta analyses estimate a global average IFR of ~0.15% [1], which is extremely biased by age. All age stratified IFRs show risk that decreases by orders of magnitude with age. We're talking IFRs below 0.003% for healthy young adults and children [2][3].
I'm not advocating against vaccination, just illustrating that the risk-reward profile is different for everyone based on their age and health. If you want to derive useful probabilistic risk estimates, there are many complex factors to consider.
[1] Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1
[2] Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7947934/
[3] COVID-19 antibody seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/50/2/410/6146069
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#103Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death, possibly much higher (see update) by COVID itself . (The risk from the vaccine, without a Covid infection, is effectively nil based on hundreds of millions of doses administered.) Natural immunity comes with a ~9x greater risk of hospitalisation, again from Covid itself. There's effectively no risk from the vaccine, again with hundreds of millions of doses…
The AP pegs the average mortality rate at 1.8% for COVID-19, or 1 out of 55 cases.[1] The CDC says the mortality rate for vaccination is 0.0019%, which my imperfect math says is about 1 out of 53,000 vaccinations.[2] These statistics indicate natural immunity on average exposes the person to roughly 1,000x data-derived historical risk of death on average, when compared to vaccination, so I'm not sure what is the sour…
The CFR (case fatality rate) is based on the number of reported cases, which falls short of the total number of incident cases.
The countries with the lowest CFR consistently report about 0.1% CFR. These countries also have the best surveillance, and this is likely near the actual IFR (incidence fatality rate).
The adjusted difference is closer to a 100x benefit for vaccination than a 1,000x. Both are of course immense improvements over no vaccination, at minimal risk.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#104Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death, possibly much higher (see update) by COVID itself . (The risk from the vaccine, without a Covid infection, is effectively nil based on hundreds of millions of doses administered.) Natural immunity comes with a ~9x greater risk of hospitalisation, again from Covid itself. There's effectively no risk from the vaccine, again with hundreds of millions of doses…
> Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death.
No it doesn't. There are O(100) deaths from O(1 billion) vaccinations. That's about 100000x lower risk than from Covid itself, not just 10-25x.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#105Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death, possibly much higher (see update) by COVID itself . (The risk from the vaccine, without a Covid infection, is effectively nil based on hundreds of millions of doses administered.) Natural immunity comes with a ~9x greater risk of hospitalisation, again from Covid itself. There's effectively no risk from the vaccine, again with hundreds of millions of doses…
The AP pegs the average mortality rate at 1.8% for COVID-19, or 1 out of 55 cases.[1] The CDC says the mortality rate for vaccination is 0.0019%, which my imperfect math says is about 1 out of 53,000 vaccinations.[2] These statistics indicate natural immunity on average exposes the person to roughly 1,000x data-derived historical risk of death on average, when compared to vaccination, so I'm not sure what is the sour…
> The AP pegs the average mortality rate at 1.8% for COVID-19, or 1 out of 55 cases.
This is nowhere near correct. The global median IFR for Covid-19 is somewhere around 0.3%. It varies substantially by region, but 1.8% is far higher than even the highest legitimate estimate.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
Those aren't the only options. It would be unethical to force testing on everyone.
We don't need to. People could be given the option of testing, or of going into isolation for the incubation period. Several countries had great effect from ordering a lockdown and testing the entire population over a day or two, releasing those who are negative from lockdown, and repeating this process multiple times in badly affected areas. Slovakia did this and it seems to have been extremely effective, though obv…
Irrelevant. What appeared to work temporarily in Slovakia last year has no bearing on management of the more contagious Delta variant. Community transmission in most countries is so widespread now that there's simply no practical way to isolate so many people. It's just too late for that to work.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#107Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death, possibly much higher (see update) by COVID itself . (The risk from the vaccine, without a Covid infection, is effectively nil based on hundreds of millions of doses administered.) Natural immunity comes with a ~9x greater risk of hospitalisation, again from Covid itself. There's effectively no risk from the vaccine, again with hundreds of millions of doses…
> Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death. No it doesn't. There are O(100) deaths from O(1 billion) vaccinations. That's about 100000x lower risk than from Covid itself, not just 10-25x.
I'm looking for a source, though the 25x factor was part of the 29 July 2021 CDC leaked report.
I'm happy to correct / update my comment with a reputable source.
From US CDC:
Reports of death after COVID-19 vaccination are rare. More than 363 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through August 23, 2021. During this time, VAERS received 6,968 reports of death (0.0019%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. FDA requires healthcare providers to report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS, even if it’s unclear whether the vaccine was the cause.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad...
As of 23 August 2021.
Note that 6,968 deaths is from all causes, not necessarily COVID-19. It's about 100x below the IFR of COVID-19.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
It sounds like that might be our endgame now. If covid becomes endemic, which may be inevitable, then the only question is whether you want your body to be prepared for its first infection or not. I wonder if this could end up like the 'common cold' coronaviruses, where future generations build up immunity through exposure very early in life, resulting in mild infections in adulthood. That would beg an interesting qu…
> 'common cold' coronaviruses I think you mean rhinoviruses?
The common cold is caused by a bunch of viruses, including both rhinoviruses and coronaviruses. There's four different human coronaviruses that we know about, one of which (HKU1) was only discovered surprisingly recently.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
At this point the Delta variant is so contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect to protect unvaccinated individuals. They're going to get exposed and infected eventually no matter what we do. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
Maybe. I quibble with "no significant herd immunity." I'm in an area with a very high vaccination rate (>87% of those over age 12 having had at least one dose, >80% fully vaccinated). Our case counts are a fraction of the rest of the country. The country's rates would be expected to be 3x lower if we could simply extrapolate my locale's rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated people to those fractions of the populati…
Case counts are meaningless as they largely reflect the level of testing. In most places there's not enough random population testing going on to get accurate infection counts. In the US the CDC estimates that infections are about 4× officially counted "cases".
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#110That's good news for people who have already recovered from Covid. We should definitely take that into account for policies around opening up again, i.e. by treating recovered people like vaccinated people. Beside that it is of little use, is it? "Get Covid to be better protected from Covid" doesn't make a lot of sense to me, at least.
Wait, which country isn't treating the recovered like the vaccinated? I thought it's standard, at least in Europe.
That’s not the case in the US.