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Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

thinkcivics.com

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Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#91

Post by CharlesW »

muttantt wrote: post #38

I know this is a controversial take, but it should be in our national interest to get young children exposed and gain natural immunity, and avoid giving them the vaccine we have so little long-term data on. According to the CDC, 450 kids (0-18yo) died from Covid-19 since Jan 2020. A total of 4.6M kids tested positive since then. In the much shorter 2017-2018 Flu season, ~650 kids (0-17) died. We really have to keep t…

> I know this a controversial take, but it should be in our national interest to get young children exposed and gain natural immunity…

It's not so much "controversial" as it is an archaic idea. We've been there, done that, for chicken pox, measles, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pox_party

In short, "infection parties" are an unnecessary risk when vaccines exist. Even if you do nothing else to protect your child and they experience a breakthrough case, they're a lot less likely to be hospitalized and potentially suffer lifelong effects if they've been vaccinated.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#92

Post by unyttigfjelltol »

dredmorbius wrote: post #18

Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death, possibly much higher (see update) by COVID itself . (The risk from the vaccine, without a Covid infection, is effectively nil based on hundreds of millions of doses administered.) Natural immunity comes with a ~9x greater risk of hospitalisation, again from Covid itself. There's effectively no risk from the vaccine, again with hundreds of millions of doses…

The AP pegs the average mortality rate at 1.8% for COVID-19, or 1 out of 55 cases.[1] The CDC says the mortality rate for vaccination is 0.0019%, which my imperfect math says is about 1 out of 53,000 vaccinations.[2] These statistics indicate natural immunity on average exposes the person to roughly 1,000x data-derived historical risk of death on average, when compared to vaccination, so I'm not sure what is the source of the lower figures in the earlier post. In any event, as a risk-weighted matter vaccination and weak immunity still seems better than infection and subsequent strong immunity. Just sayin'.

[1] https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-970830023526

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad...

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#93

Post by fileeditview »

yehosef wrote: post #79
throwaway5752 wrote: post #53

I want to ask about source material for a minute. What is ThinkCivics? Why is it reasonable second-hand source for analysis of a non-peer reviewed article? Does it have editorial biases? I am asking sincerely. It is a new site to me, and I don't know if it is a trustworthy source of information. The site is also unresponsive at the time I'm writing this.

Anything that questions the value of vaccines should be suspected as misinformation, regardless of the source.

Is that sarcasm?

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#94

Post by [deleted] »

unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #92
dredmorbius wrote: post #18

Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death, possibly much higher (see update) by COVID itself . (The risk from the vaccine, without a Covid infection, is effectively nil based on hundreds of millions of doses administered.) Natural immunity comes with a ~9x greater risk of hospitalisation, again from Covid itself. There's effectively no risk from the vaccine, again with hundreds of millions of doses…

The AP pegs the average mortality rate at 1.8% for COVID-19, or 1 out of 55 cases.[1] The CDC says the mortality rate for vaccination is 0.0019%, which my imperfect math says is about 1 out of 53,000 vaccinations.[2] These statistics indicate natural immunity on average exposes the person to roughly 1,000x data-derived historical risk of death on average, when compared to vaccination, so I'm not sure what is the sour…

[deleted]

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#95

Post by haroldship »

phenkdo wrote: post #5

Isn't this literally survivorship bias?

1) possibly, but in Israel nearly all deaths are over 60 but most infections are not so maybe not so much 2) depends on the question: if you ask if you should get vaccinated or get covid, then yes. If you ask whether it’s as safe to be around a recovered as a vaccinated, then not really

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#96

Post by 1e-9 »

phenkdo wrote: post #5

Isn't this literally survivorship bias?

No, there is no survivorship bias apparent here. The samples appear to be representative of the populations they were investigating. They were looking at the risk of infection. Dead people don’t get infected, so they were not part of the populations studied.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#97

Post by throwawaycities »

nradov wrote: post #32
throwawaycities wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The “problem” is that vaccinated people with the virus but experiencing no symptoms is that they still spread it to both unvaccinated and vaccinated alike. While many might not feel sympathy for the unvaccinated, a small % can’t get the vaccination, and there will still be that % of vaccinated people that do have a bad health outcome.

At this point the Delta variant is so contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect to protect unvaccinated individuals. They're going to get exposed and infected eventually no matter what we do. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

My point is limited to problems with vaccinated people willfully exposing themselves to the virus on the basis their negative health outcome is low, and it might minimize bad health outcomes in the future. Even assuming that is true in most cases, they still carry and spread the virus. Point is vaccinated persons probably should not be willfully exposing themselves to the virus on the basis they are protected and will gain additional protections.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#98

Post by nradov »

barake wrote: post #49
muttantt wrote: post #38

I know this is a controversial take, but it should be in our national interest to get young children exposed and gain natural immunity, and avoid giving them the vaccine we have so little long-term data on. According to the CDC, 450 kids (0-18yo) died from Covid-19 since Jan 2020. A total of 4.6M kids tested positive since then. In the much shorter 2017-2018 Flu season, ~650 kids (0-17) died. We really have to keep t…

We don't know the long term effects of COVID either. How many decades are between chicken pox and shingles?

Chickenpox (varicella) is a herpesvirus which remains dormant in the patient after the acute infection phase. That's why it can reactivate later in life as shingles. It has almost nothing in common with coronaviruses.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#99

Post by jsnell »

rgbrenner wrote: post #58

can we change the URL to the paper?[0] The "article" is just blog spam consisting of a few quotes from the abstract of the paper. And I had to go find a cached version because the site was down. 0. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v...

The paper was also discussed on HN three days ago (245 comments):

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28307224

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#100

Post by lupire »

throwawaycities wrote: post #97
nradov wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point the Delta variant is so contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect to protect unvaccinated individuals. They're going to get exposed and infected eventually no matter what we do. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

My point is limited to problems with vaccinated people willfully exposing themselves to the virus on the basis their negative health outcome is low, and it might minimize bad health outcomes in the future. Even assuming that is true in most cases, they still carry and spread the virus. Point is vaccinated persons probably should not be willfully exposing themselves to the virus on the basis they are protected and wil…

Any intentional infection should be accompanied by thorough testing and isolation.
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