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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

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Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#491

Post by justicezyx »

edderly wrote: post #424
justicezyx wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What security risk? This Mr. Wu did something bad inside China, without any evidence that he was colluding with the national and local government of China. How is that translate to security risk at US domestic? And all these Chinese stem students already contributed critical work to the boom of high tech industry. You are not appreciting their hard work, and link a speculation to national security risk?! How heartles…

I have no strong opinions on this, but for background, there are a bunch of Silicon Valley types like Eric Weinstein (Thiel Capital) who maintain that there are sinister undertones to the growing influence of Chinese immigrants in Tech and Higher Education. https://djonesvi.medium.com/eric-weinstein-on-the-secretly-c... Obviously that can veer into uncomfortable conclusions i.e. is it true, or is this kind of racist?

Looking at what Peter thiel and Weinstein presented, my impression has been that they are seeing the threat as a general trend as an influence on the US way of society. Or to be precise, the type of society that enjoyed by the rich. The powerful in US are not as better off as their counterparts in China.

As a Chinese American myself, any derivation from Peter and Weinstein's argument as the basis for special treatment to Chinese immigrants, or default being suspicious stereotype, is plain racism (looking at how Chinese Americans are treated, racism seem not applicable to our group).

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#492

Post by spoonjim »

nl wrote: post #478
spoonjim wrote: post #435

The continual failure of American political leadership is to be asleep at the wheel while China eats our lunch. It’s been happening for 40 years and the only President with any inclination to stop it was too idiotic to succeed.

The British ARM company got sold to the Japanese Softbank investment company which then did a bad deal in China but somehow Americans think it is all about them.

This 40 year process has very little to do with Arm or Softbank. Arm and SoftBank are the end stages of the disease, the window for treatment is long passed.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#493

Post by justicezyx »

barrkel wrote: post #5

This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.

Nonsense

Arm China was set up because they want to be listed on the Shanghai Star board, the Chinese Nasdaq. If Arm just want to do business in China, it's totally OK to have fully owned subsidiary.

And this whole setup was in turn from Softbank's acute sense that Arm China will be given a lofty valuation because of the tech wars happening right now...

And for all are happening right now, it's because Mr. Wu learned how to manuvurer based on his own interests. The Chinese investors are actually not directly benefiting from this mess.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#494

Post by makeitdouble »

lobocinza wrote: post #455
makeitdouble wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A point on addressing China as market: for a non US company, I think there just isn’t any market that will be much easier to compete in either way. If we imagine a Swedish chip maker that wants to become a global powerhouse, the US will dip a finger or two in it to make sure it mostly goes along their interests, otherwise the maker will just get banned from US use (Huawey…). China will do the same if the chips ever t…

And Canada, Mexico, Europe, South America, Oceania and many other countries on Asia.

Yes, I completely forgot South America, Brazil in particular.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#495

Post by star-trek-fleet »

dylan522p wrote: post #27
klelatti wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting that it's not the 51% (and I think some of the 51% may be held by non Chinese investors) that has been key but rather Allen Wu having the seal - so even without control of the board he's still been able to get control of the company.

Author here, there is a Singaporean investor as well, but they have deep Chinese ties. I agree with your assessment. Allen Wu is an American citizen too, but loyal to China with deep CCP contacts.

> but loyal to China with deep CCP contacts

What are the evidence of this? Other than him being self interested and commit misconduct.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#496

Post by javajosh »

thepasswordis wrote: post #396

It really feels like the rest of the world refuses to even try and prevent China from taking over everything.

Maybe Americans should start trying to start more on-shore factories.

(Just thinking about that makes me laugh. The environmentalists, the labor folks, the real-estate folks, the local and state tax authorities -- all will either slow things and/or get their cut. From what I understand the sad truth is that the CCP's real economic advantage lies in ignoring the environment, workers rights, and real-estate rights. So we are stuck with on-shore "too much" and Chinese "not enough" in each of these categories. Plus, our justice system is entirely dysfunctional and slows everything down 100x and increases cost of everything 1000x).

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#497

Post by ruytlm »

nabla9 wrote: post #71
zoomablemind wrote: post #29

Are there examples of mainland-grown IP/technology breakthroughs that resulted from such "transfers"? It seems so far that this does enable China to further catch up and massively expand the use of the captured technology, but are there instances of them qualitatively surpassing it? I'm sure China has enough resources for advancements beyond replication, as much as it's capable of showcasing something to the rest of…

China repeats Japan 1950-1980. Focus on incremental innovation, instead of big leaps. They started at the bottom rung of the quality chain. They are constantly climbing it up but the speed seems slow. Then suddenly they are in par or little ahead. Chinese are already within a spitting distance in most technologies. Semiconductors have some technology bottlenecks like EUV machines that are hard to replicate. Chinese f…

Interestingly, Japan also had very lax IP laws as it was catching up to the rest of the world, which basically enabled it to do what China has been doing, and only really shifted to strong IP protections as it started to develop its own tech and IP that it wanted to export.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#498

Post by joshuaissac »

FullyFunctional wrote: post #115
xmly wrote: post #102

I wish the author can learn some Chinese before writing this article. And the related Chinese news was already there last year. The thing is the pure ARM internal political conflicts. ARM China CEO WU, a US citizen, claimed that he reported few high-level managers' corruptions and then he got fired by the ARM Softbank. ARM Softbank united with all board directors, including all Chinese investors, to fire Wu. But when…

That represents an interesting twist in the story, but I don't seeing it affecting the conclusion - ARM has lost all control over their subsidiary (at least until the China judicial powers intervene). This couldn't have happened in a western country.

> This couldn't have happened in a western country.

Because control of the company is not determined by control of the company seal in Western countries, but it is in China. A legal technicality that the shareholders need to get the courts to address.

But there are also technicalities in Western company laws that need judicial intervention, like dealing with directors acting against shareholders' interests in English company law.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#499

Post by kreelman »

HPsquared wrote: post #300
fxtentacle wrote: post #85

While I agree with most of the article, I find the conclusion makes it seem like propaganda: "it is clear that SoftBank’s short sighted profit driven behavior has caused a massive conundrum" If I understand things correctly, Arm China going rouge is a big problem for all western governments, who in the past have heavily relied on the leverage that they had thanks to western IP being needed for chip design. So shiftin…

"Going rouge" as in red? Seems appropriate...

I'm guessing "rouge" should be "rogue"?

Somewhere in this conversation I think someone made a typo and it's gained its own life in the comments, thinking it's the correct term?

However, in this case Softbank must be "rouge" (embarrassed) for their mistake... So perhaps it's kind of okay :)

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#500

Post by AzzieElbab »

cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

Waking up is not a problem. Incentives are fkd up all over
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