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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

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Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#81

Post by leephillips »

dylan522p wrote: post #27
klelatti wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting that it's not the 51% (and I think some of the 51% may be held by non Chinese investors) that has been key but rather Allen Wu having the seal - so even without control of the board he's still been able to get control of the company.

Author here, there is a Singaporean investor as well, but they have deep Chinese ties. I agree with your assessment. Allen Wu is an American citizen too, but loyal to China with deep CCP contacts.

Did he register with the US gov. as a foreign agent? If not, he should be apprehended next time he enters the US.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#82

Post by MichaelGroves »

echelon wrote: post #75
denverkarma wrote: post #64

So when is the western world going to wake up and realize that China is a cutthroat competitor that does not respect western law or traditions, cannot be trusted, and intends to dominate the world? This seems especially troubling for the tech world as IP is easily copied and the only thing that really protects it is the legal system, which China has shown over and over they don't care about.

As soon as we stop banning people from saying that.

You joke, but I was earnestly pleasantly surprised to see that dang isn't chilling this conversation with his complaints about "nationalist flamebait" yet.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#84

Post by landryraccoon »

nickff wrote: post #77
denverkarma wrote: post #64

So when is the western world going to wake up and realize that China is a cutthroat competitor that does not respect western law or traditions, cannot be trusted, and intends to dominate the world? This seems especially troubling for the tech world as IP is easily copied and the only thing that really protects it is the legal system, which China has shown over and over they don't care about.

You make the implicit assumption that it is possible to maintain an advantage in the market after destroying ongoing business relationships/expectations (as ARM China appears to have done). I think you may be overestimating the importance of 'apparent market power', and underestimating the value of consistency and adaptability. Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the sho…

> Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the short term, but struggle and founder in the long term.

That sounds like a prayer to me.

What evidence is there that China can't win? How are you certain that authoritarian regimes can't both gain and keep dominance over timescale of decades or centuries?

Consider that the dominance of democracy is a relatively short term thing on the historical timescale. For the vast majority of human history, civilizations have been ruled by authoritarian dictators. The rise of China could just be reversion to the mean.

I don't want totalitarianism to win. But if we just complacently assume that it won't, doesn't that make the worst case scenario much more likely?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#85

Post by fxtentacle »

While I agree with most of the article, I find the conclusion makes it seem like propaganda:

"it is clear that SoftBank’s short sighted profit driven behavior has caused a massive conundrum"

If I understand things correctly, Arm China going rouge is a big problem for all western governments, who in the past have heavily relied on the leverage that they had thanks to western IP being needed for chip design. So shifting the blame onto SoftBank appears wrong. Did anyone expect a Japanese money-driven investment bank to do what's politically the right thing for the U.S.? I don't think it would be reasonable to expect that. So in my opinion, a better conclusion would be:

"Western governments allowing SoftBank to take Arm's IP into China has caused a massive conundrum"

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#87

Post by knodi »

Is anything shocked by this? Chinese has been stealing IP for over 40 years now with government backing. In-fact government of China has encouraged such behavior and in some cases down right funded it.

Just like before they'll get away with it. Who's going to stop this behemoth thug China?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#88

Post by matheusmoreira »

barrkel wrote: post #5

This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.

Seems to be going on for decades if the book Poorly Made in China is to be believed. Western corporations deliver their intellectual property to chinese factories on a silver platter.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#89

Post by matheusmoreira »

monocasa wrote: post #33

I'm not sure what anyone expected when we cut China off of chip IP. We did the same thing in the US, we had a policy of just straight up encouraging people to memorize patents before they immigrated over, and paying for their family to immigrate with them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Slater

Are there more examples of this? I want to cite them every time people defend intellectual property.
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