Presumably this is going to get interesting when they try to export hardware containing Arm-China items to the West. Arm will claim that it contains pirate IP, leading to seizures at the border.
Arm China Has Gone Rogue
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Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue
#22If the current course continues this seems likely to lead to a bifurcation of the Arm ecosystem - presumably with Arm customers outside of China competing with incompatible products exported from China based on Arm China designs. I don't have any insight into the quality of the Arm China team but isn't one possible outcome that there is strong competition between the two ecosystems. So we could be in an Arms race (so…
IANAL but I would assume they would infringe many Arm patents if sold outside of China.
Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue
#23So, I cannot see this sort of thing stopping, until we see a point where non-Chinese investors revolt when they hear about the company they've invested going into China, rather than cheering. If investors have had such a change of heart at this point, I have not seen it.
This sort of thing definitely has deterred investment in China. I was aware of it (in a very different industry) twenty years ago and it definitely affected decision making. It's impossible to track investments not made though.
To be honest it has now become politically toxic for a western company to announce a large investment in China.
Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue
#24If the current course continues this seems likely to lead to a bifurcation of the Arm ecosystem - presumably with Arm customers outside of China competing with incompatible products exported from China based on Arm China designs. I don't have any insight into the quality of the Arm China team but isn't one possible outcome that there is strong competition between the two ecosystems. So we could be in an Arms race (so…
IANAL but I would assume they would infringe many Arm patents if sold outside of China.
Presumably Arm China would claim all legal and licensed to Arm China under Chinese law?
Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
IANAL but I would assume they would infringe many Arm patents if sold outside of China.
Presumably Arm China would claim all legal and licensed to Arm China under Chinese law?
That's fine within China, but you specifically mentioned exports. They aren't exporting this stuff to any country outside of a small handful.
Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue
#26Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue
#27This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.
Interesting that it's not the 51% (and I think some of the 51% may be held by non Chinese investors) that has been key but rather Allen Wu having the seal - so even without control of the board he's still been able to get control of the company.
Author here, there is a Singaporean investor as well, but they have deep Chinese ties. I agree with your assessment. Allen Wu is an American citizen too, but loyal to China with deep CCP contacts.
Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue
#28If the current course continues this seems likely to lead to a bifurcation of the Arm ecosystem - presumably with Arm customers outside of China competing with incompatible products exported from China based on Arm China designs. I don't have any insight into the quality of the Arm China team but isn't one possible outcome that there is strong competition between the two ecosystems. So we could be in an Arms race (so…
IANAL but I would assume they would infringe many Arm patents if sold outside of China.
Author here. They specifically said they are not working with foreign companies. While they have exclusive rights to arm architecture in china, they cannot do anything outside china.
Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue
#29Are there examples of mainland-grown IP/technology breakthroughs that resulted from such "transfers"?
It seems so far that this does enable China to further catch up and massively expand the use of the captured technology, but are there instances of them qualitatively surpassing it?
I'm sure China has enough resources for advancements beyond replication, as much as it's capable of showcasing something to the rest of the world equally valuable of "transfer".
Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue
#30> but it is clear that SoftBank’s short sighted profit driven behavior has caused a massive conundrum.
I think the entire West has had short sighted profit driven behavior with respect to China for the past 40 years.