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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

291–300 of 686 posts

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Allen Wu having the seal For those of us not familiar with Chinese business practices, is this an actual seal? Like someone would use to frank documents, or squish into hot wax to seal documents? Or is it a symbolic seal, like a legal document, or something else?

These days it's a round plastic handle with a carved rubber bottom that pairs with a spongy red-ink filled bottom. There's a picture and an explanation at [1]. It basically functions the same way as the signature of an authorized representative of the company does in the West. Presumably it comes out of personal seals which are a fun item to get if you're in China. I never interacted with someone who used them, but i…

In Japan seals/stamps (hanko) are still widely used as signatures.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#292

It's almost like China wants to make sure nobody ever lets them near useful IP again. This just seems counterproductive for them in the long run, though if you understand geopolitics better than I do, please help my understand how this is a good long-term strategy for China

As long as there's a chance to eek out some more money, companies will continue to do it. This isn't remotely a new thing.

There's a pretty reasonable chance part of the downfall of Nortel was a lot of their data being extracted by the government and provided to Huawei.

After Nortel shut down, the Canadian Department of National Defense picked up their headquarters to move into, but the move was delayed for years because the building was chock full of listening devices.

This started almost 20 years ago. But here we are still willing to gamble that they'll respect our IP because maybe we can make a few bucks.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#293
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The anarcho-capitalist’s nightmare: realization that you need a strong government to enforce fair, intervention-free market.

one of the best arguments against anarcho-capitalism is that without a goverment, there would be no market to speak of. why exchange in trade if no one can guarantee it will be beneficial for you? Why would the other party trade instead of just stealing your stuff? You could ofcourse defend against by carrying a bigger stick then the next guy or cooperating with others. Which starts to look an awful lot like the orga…

> one of the best arguments against anarcho-capitalism is that without a goverment, there would be no market to speak of.

> why exchange in trade if no one can guarantee it will be beneficial for you? Why would the other party trade instead of just stealing your stuff? You could ofcourse defend against by carrying a bigger stick then the next guy or cooperating with others.

> Which starts to look an awful lot like the organised structure of a state..

Anarcho-capitalism is like one of those high atomic number elements with a half-life of microsecond. The society it describes is so unbelievably unstable, due to its own internal contradictions, that it practically cannot exist. A stable version of it is a literal fantasy.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Here's where I think this will first come to a head: I believe the US government will at some point soon decide that any person born in mainland China is a security risk as far as working on anything national security related. This will probably extend to key industries of national importance too (eg SpaceX). Even naturalization or birth in America can't erase ties to Chinese entities, through family links for inst…

One of the problems is that Chinese Americans may still have family ties in China, and the CCP's United Front [1] or other orgs will use those ties to extort, blackmail, or otherwise pressure them. It's absolutely imperative that the US Govt, and the govts of all democracies, recognize and combat this, and take active measures to protect their Chinese citizens. One thing that needs to happen if it's not the case alre…

> It's absolutely imperative that the US Govt, and the govts of all democracies, recognize and combat this, and take active measures to protect their Chinese citizens.

Agree.

> Democratic governments should probably also look into providing an expedited immigration path for their Chinese citizens' relatives still in China.

Just want to point out that, Chinese spies tried to exploit expedited immigration paths in UK intended for Hong Kongers [1]. I don’t have an easy solution.

[1]: https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-spies-try-uk-visa-pe...

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Here's where I think this will first come to a head: I believe the US government will at some point soon decide that any person born in mainland China is a security risk as far as working on anything national security related. This will probably extend to key industries of national importance too (eg SpaceX). Even naturalization or birth in America can't erase ties to Chinese entities, through family links for inst…

One of the problems is that Chinese Americans may still have family ties in China, and the CCP's United Front [1] or other orgs will use those ties to extort, blackmail, or otherwise pressure them. It's absolutely imperative that the US Govt, and the govts of all democracies, recognize and combat this, and take active measures to protect their Chinese citizens. One thing that needs to happen if it's not the case alre…

The general mistreatment and neglect of whistleblowers makes me think such a policy is unlikely to work.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#296
post #5

This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.

And Airbus. An incredible number of people working at Airbus Tianjin factory went to work at Comac.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#297
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure about that? It's the norm in Europe. E.g. you can't work for UK security services (MI5, MI6) unless one of your parents was also British, you lived in the UK for a while and you might be required to give up dual citizenship.

> Are you sure about that? It's the norm in Europe. E.g. you can't work for UK security services (MI5, MI6) unless one of your parents was also British, you lived in the UK for a while and you might be required to give up dual citizenship. I think it's actually similar for US security clearances, though not explicitly codified like that. IIRC, if you're a dual citizen, you have to renounce the non-American one. Appar…

I know dual citizen US folk with secret clearances. DoD is pickier with Top Secret.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#298
post #186
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just a lack of domestic skilled workers. I'm not really sure there is much of a lack. It's just that US labor is so much more expensive compared to earning power. US workers can't pay other US workers. Getting parts CNCed in China may be 10x less than the cost in the US, and materials are a tenth the cost as well (in small qty) as they haven't been transported yet. You can get roughly the same throughput in…

> US workers can't pay other US workers. That is just logically false. It's not even a question of measurement, it is false by definition. The income paid to produce is by definition always sufficient to purchase the output that has been produced. But remember that income paid to the factors of production includes both labor and capital income, because both the owners of capital and the suppliers of labor purchase th…

The buyer of US labor is the government and capital. Taxes on all US economic activity and coffers filled with worldwide profits are what purchases comparatively expensive US labor. This is why, e.g., most people can not afford new housing construction -- excess money has been dumped into it from the stimulus, driving costs up. Similar things have happened on a longer timescale for IT and engineering.

Take what I said with some restrictions, like "US workers can't afford skilled or semiskilled US labor" which is afaict true. I work in production automation, life sciences, and software; my hobby projects in these area are unfortunately quite expensive due to US labor costs. As much as possible I must avoid using US labor if I want to get anything done.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#299
post #147

This article repeats “安谋科技” so many times but as far as I can tell, doesn’t mention even once how I might attempt to pronounce it or recognize when anyone else mentions it in the future. Can anyone at least provide a transliteration?

Google Translate comes up with Ammou Technology

deepl translates it as "AnMou Technology."

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#300

While I agree with most of the article, I find the conclusion makes it seem like propaganda: "it is clear that SoftBank’s short sighted profit driven behavior has caused a massive conundrum" If I understand things correctly, Arm China going rouge is a big problem for all western governments, who in the past have heavily relied on the leverage that they had thanks to western IP being needed for chip design. So shiftin…

"Going rouge" as in red? Seems appropriate...
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