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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#341

Post by random314 »

random314 wrote: post #334
rayiner wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can flip this argument for those leaving California as well. Out migration out of California should be discounted because the folks moving out are the ones who are no longer productive or competitive in states with higher productivity. That formulation still makes California sound shitty! > This comment also privileges the choices and constraints faced by 2nd generation immigrants over the choices and constrain…

> No, it avoids distorting the picture. This is simply running around in circles. Privileging 2nd generation immigrants over the first generation cannot be framed as avoiding distortion. I have never heard some one say that they moved into California because they were constrained by language barriers. Virtually everyone moves here for economic opportunity. The ones that move out are the ones who want a large single f…

If we want to identify a subset of the population who are privileged enough to make unconstrained choices we must look at billionaires and where they choose to live.

Favoring 2nd gen over 1st gen is not a viable position. It easily falls apart.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#342

Post by seanmcdirmid »

sbuttgereit wrote: post #320
travisjungroth wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are small parts of California where that is absolutely true. A block of the Tenderloin is more likely to have shit and needles than not. Crime in SF is out of control. There’s also about 160 million other square miles where things aren’t so bad.

This is true, but the bad places tend to also be the big population centers. This naturally means the same people that are content to allow these problems to fester are also politically dominant at the state level.

> This naturally means the same people that are content to allow these problems to fester are also politically dominant at the state level.

In the 1920s, Californians would complain about hobos hopping trains to LA and San Francisco (The Little Tramp stereotypes weren't completely baseless). This was when California was predominantly run by Republicans. During the Great Depression, California then attracted a bunch of jobless/destitute Okies and so on...

If the problem has existed for more than a hundred years, maybe it's not the politicians and residents enabling it. If California wants to get rid of its homeless problem, they need to change their weather (or get fixes on a national level, but with the current Republicans in place, probably changing the weather would be easier).

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#343

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

permo-w wrote: post #238
TillE wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's genuinely terrifying to realize just how much power mass media holds over shaping public opinion. Without even lying usually, simply choosing what to report and who to give a platform. American media isn't even particularly bad in this respect, it looks generally fair and reasonable compared to eg, the British media.

the British print media. Our TV News is pretty sane and sober, although there are current efforts to change that. See: GB News

Yeah, I honestly feel like the BBC might have been the only thing preventing the UK going full-on culture war in the past ten or so years.

(in general, the legal requirement for TV to be impartial and cover both sides is a much bigger contributory factor).

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#344

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

tonymet wrote: post #146
BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

I agree. We’re encouraged to trust stats over personal observations, but stats have noise , error and bad narratives . Generally stats are picked and chosen to tell a story . Among my friends and coworkers I’ve known dozens who left CA in the past 12 months . Even just this morning as friend surprised me that he will be gone in a week, and I know many more who are actively looking to leave , particularly before fire…

Just remember, your friends/coworkers are not a random sample.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#345

Post by croes »

Trias11 wrote: post #339
croes wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"A plane crashed in California" This nonsense is clearly peddled by local politicians trying to save their faces. I flew yesterday and the plane didn't crash, a lots people I know flew the past weeks and didn't crash either. Ever thought that you maybe in the peer group that moves out of California for whatever reason but your group is just a statistically irrelevant minority?

We're not talking about plane crashes. We're talking about the significant demographic trend that is clearly there and it signifies the utter failure of CA politicians to keep productive and creative people as well as businesses. The trend is there whether you like it or not.

>The trend is there whether you like it or not.

By your anecdotal experience or do you hard facts? If not your claim is as valid as mine about plane crashes

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#346

Post by [deleted] »

thebradbain wrote: post #95
almost_usual wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who are in between jobs and thinking of moving to where they grew up I hear the opposite, people cannot afford where they grew up. Most people from the Bay Area aren’t working high paying tech jobs. > I guess in real life I just hear more people talk about the general cost of living argument than a than the specific anti-tech one. Anti-tech sentiment peaked in the early 2010s. Tech buses stopped being vandalized an…

> Anti-tech sentiment peaked in the early 2010s. Tech buses stopped being vandalized and the “die techie scum” thing mostly went away after 2015. While we're comparing anecdotal evidence, I live in Los Angeles and count among my peers many who work in the Hollywood/Media industry. I can assure you the general sentiment among them toward Big Tech is overwhelmingly negative. I work in tech (albeit not a large company)…

[deleted]

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#347

Post by whoooooo123 »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #342
sbuttgereit wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true, but the bad places tend to also be the big population centers. This naturally means the same people that are content to allow these problems to fester are also politically dominant at the state level.

> This naturally means the same people that are content to allow these problems to fester are also politically dominant at the state level. In the 1920s, Californians would complain about hobos hopping trains to LA and San Francisco (The Little Tramp stereotypes weren't completely baseless). This was when California was predominantly run by Republicans. During the Great Depression, California then attracted a bunch o…

> get fixes on a national level, but with the current Republicans in place

Er, what? You realise the federal government is currently controlled by Democrats, right?

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#348

Post by skyzyx »

senormenor wrote: post #301
xyzzyz wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is in fact weird. The entire question is, why don’t these immigrants stay in California? What do the find so repellent, or what do they find so attractive elsewhere that is not available in California?

If you believe conservative media and "anti-woke" Twitter, California is an unliveable wasteland where you can't walk two paces without stepping over homeless people, discarded needles and human feces, where crime (violent and non-violent) is skyrocketing, where people don't feel safe in their own homes, and where the only response by "progressive" politicians is to double down on their same bad policies that created…

There are definitely some cities like that — San Francisco, Oakland, and Los Angeles metro all come to mind. And we did waste however many billions of dollars on a high-speed rail system that still doesn’t exist. And we keep catching on fire every summer.

But in the central valley where the majority of conservatives in California live, there are MUCH smaller cities, and therefore have fewer “people” problems by comparison. Sure, Fresno and Sacramento have some homeless problems, but those are usually crack and meth users in a particular part of town that everyone else knows should be avoided. The reality is, everywhere has some sort of problems that you’ll find if you look hard enough.

Having said that, I was one of the people who chose to leave California. I love California, and it will always be my home, but being a single father with two children making $140,000 a year in the Bay Area in 2016, I was barely making ends meet.

The rat race of the bay area, combined with high gas prices, combined with terrible traffic that extends 100 miles in any direction from San Francisco, it just stopped being worth it. So I left.

I know that I don’t represent everyone, but I’m one of the statistics that got “rounded off“.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#349

Post by tomc1985 »

gkop wrote: post #157
ardit33 wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it is a proxy for jobs and a large labour market and choice, even for poor people. Eureka doesn't have one, yet it commands prices of a mid sized metro. CA is overpriced by a long shot

I don’t have a horse in this race, but must point out that Eureka sits directly on the Pacific Coast of the mainland United States, which adds significant desirability to a town that is admittedly best known for having a lot of tweakers. (In fact Eureka is fairly centrally located on the coast, which is kind of cool, too. I’d want to live in Arcata instead because less tweakers. But Arcata isn’t directly on the coast…

This is really pedantic, but Eureka isn't really directly on the coast either, it sits on the far side of Humboldt Bay and is shielded by an isthmus that is mostly empty land. That said the coast is a 10 minute drive (and maybe 25-30 minute drive for Arcata)

As for the populace... they don't call it Eutweaka for nothin

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#350

Post by seanmcdirmid »

whoooooo123 wrote: post #347
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This naturally means the same people that are content to allow these problems to fester are also politically dominant at the state level. In the 1920s, Californians would complain about hobos hopping trains to LA and San Francisco (The Little Tramp stereotypes weren't completely baseless). This was when California was predominantly run by Republicans. During the Great Depression, California then attracted a bunch o…

> get fixes on a national level, but with the current Republicans in place Er, what? You realise the federal government is currently controlled by Democrats, right?

It doesn't matter. Divided government and electoral pressure means that we are fixed right of center for the foreseeable future; there is a reason we elected a conservative Democrat as president. The Democrats also can't just go off and propose nationwide solutions to homelessness, they can barely get an infrastructure bill going.
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