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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#331

Post by random314 »

rayiner wrote: post #316
random314 wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This unfairly discounts the immigrants that California attracts , while counting folks who leave. To be consistent we must look at population growth as a whole, possibly split by age group. California will typically attract younger folks looking for work.

It discounts international immigration in from every state, so California isn’t especially penalized in that regard. It’s not unfair—all it does is separate the question of what makes a state a good destination for international immigrants (which involves very specific factors) and the question of what makes a state a desirable place to live for Americans who have unrestricted choices about where to live.

Discounting international immigration from every state is obviously unfair. United States is a country built by immigrants.

It is true that most American states are unable to attract immigrants. However, they do reap the benefits from the powerhouse states that keep America competitive in the global economic sphere.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#332

Post by tomc1985 »

wolverine876 wrote: post #230
beckingz wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

9 people gets you a significant portion of the confidence that a larger survey provides.

? It depends on the size of the population. I don't believe surveying 9 people will tell you anything about public opinion among the ~325 million Americans. And again, it must be representative. Should I ask 9 friends of mine?

No, unless you are trying to draw conclusions limited to your friends. Similarly, two flats in 10 years might be significant for you and your driving, but not tires as a whole.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#333

Post by musingsole »

robomartin wrote: post #248
deep-root wrote: post #44

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…

I don't know about these numbers. What I can tell you is that the business exodus from CA is very real. This means less jobs, or, what could be worse, lower paying jobs. I know of entire companies who picked-up and left for places like Arizona and Texas. I personally cannot wait to be able to do the same. I want nothing whatsoever to do with California in terms of business. After decades of living here I am just sick…

> They passed a tax added to your property taxes that is a function of any surface area on your property that does not allow rain to come into contact with dirt.

Tamped earth structures. BOOM. When you make your billions, just cite @musingsole in your about page.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#334

Post by random314 »

rayiner wrote: post #314
random314 wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Immigrants face unique constraints in their choice of where to live. What you are saying is that California and New York are where the jobs are - hence the immigration. An H1B is equally valid in California and Tennessee. You can flip this argument for those leaving California as well. Out migration out of California should be discounted because the folks moving out are the ones who are no longer productive or comp…

> You can flip this argument for those leaving California as well. Out migration out of California should be discounted because the folks moving out are the ones who are no longer productive or competitive in states with higher productivity. That formulation still makes California sound shitty! > This comment also privileges the choices and constraints faced by 2nd generation immigrants over the choices and constrain…

> No, it avoids distorting the picture.

This is simply running around in circles. Privileging 2nd generation immigrants over the first generation cannot be framed as avoiding distortion. I have never heard some one say that they moved into California because they were constrained by language barriers. Virtually everyone moves here for economic opportunity. The ones that move out are the ones who want a large single family home with a large backyard. This is what they find fulfilling and a sign of accomplishment in their life. 1st generation immigrants don't have that kind of baggage. This also explains the hatred that a lot of these smaller towns have when Californians move there. Because they bring the fuckton of money that they earned in California and amp up the price of real estate in the area and gentrify it.

Maybe, we should discount the outflow out of CA/NYC because other states don't appreciate the CA money that disturbs the economic balance there. There are several cuts that can be made if we want to "remove distortion" from hundreds of different POVs.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#335

Post by koheripbal »

unishark wrote: post #170
cmckn wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That Bezos quote is pretty dodgy, but to address your point: Ask anyone in Denver and they'll tell you there's a mass exodus out of Chicago. Or ask anyone in Miami and they'll tell you there's a mass exodus out of Philly. People move around. I think this is a similar phenomenon to buying a car and "seeing that car everywhere all of a sudden." It's all about perspective. In this sense, data is always better than anecd…

If locals are leaving a place and being replaced by international immigrants then it explains the anecdotes. Everyone is more likely to know more people that left a place than moved there. Also it will show in other stats. People in other states tell me there is an exodus there from California or New England, and their reasoning is based on differences in truck rental prices going either direction, which internationa…

...and I think that represents a serious problem. If skilled labor and companies are moving out, and unskilled labor/immigrants are moving in, that is a major problem for the tax base.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#336

Post by koheripbal »

cjsplat wrote: post #31

US census data says about 650k people left California between 2018 and 2019, out of a population of 39M, or 1.6% In dramatic contrast, in Texas, 450k left out of 28M, or 1.6% Nationwide, 7 million people changed states out of 324 M, or 2.1% https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geograph...

Part of the problem is that when it comes to the wellbeing of a state, financially, one person is != to one person.

If corporations and highly-skilled/high-earning labor are moving out, and low-skill/immigrant labor is moving in, then you develop a major fiscal tax revenue gap that has to support more low-income neighborhoods with the tax revenue from fewer and fewer corporations and high tax individuals.

It can also have a snowball effect where people try to sell their homes before home prices fall further, or try to establish residency elsewhere before taxes are raised more.

In a way, the more we talk about it, the worse it can get. I suppose that's why the denials are so vocal.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#337

Post by DevKoala »

strbean wrote: post #330
DevKoala wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should have finished reading before getting offended. Some of his examples were very valid.

Reviewing them all, it seems the only remotely valid points where "LA permit approval is slow" and "California agriculture uses a lot of water"...

What about the tax on owning business items in LA? Does that sound fair?

Also, don’t you think it is insane that at a time when we are in need of jobs for an increasing population, job creation is stopped due to bureaucracy?

I love California, I am staying to create businesses too. However, there is way too much complacency among residents regarding the situation at which we have arrived due to our policies.

These policies perhaps impact business creators first, but also have massive repercussions on the quality of life of other residents.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#338

Post by DevKoala »

jjeaff wrote: post #293
robomartin wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about these numbers. What I can tell you is that the business exodus from CA is very real. This means less jobs, or, what could be worse, lower paying jobs. I know of entire companies who picked-up and left for places like Arizona and Texas. I personally cannot wait to be able to do the same. I want nothing whatsoever to do with California in terms of business. After decades of living here I am just sick…

The business property tax is for property over $100k. I don't think many offices have that much furniture. Also, it does not appear to be true that this tax is assessed on businesses outside of la county. Just how exactly are the figuring out who is driving "through" the county? They have to send you the assessment forms.

It doesn’t make it less ridiculous. It disincentivizes business creation in LA. Also, due to inflation $100k will be much less in a decade when small business owners will start getting hit by it.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#339

Post by Trias11 »

croes wrote: post #269
Trias11 wrote: post #205

"Similarly, the research found no evidence of millionaire flight from California...". This nonsense is clearly peddled by local politicians trying to save their faces. I moved from CA to Vegas which automatically boosted my income by +10%. With covid times where major employers allowing people work from home - this is logical move for tens of thousands of people. No houses for sale in decent Vegas neighborhoods here,…

>"A plane crashed in California" This nonsense is clearly peddled by local politicians trying to save their faces. I flew yesterday and the plane didn't crash, a lots people I know flew the past weeks and didn't crash either. Ever thought that you maybe in the peer group that moves out of California for whatever reason but your group is just a statistically irrelevant minority?

We're not talking about plane crashes.

We're talking about the significant demographic trend that is clearly there and it signifies the utter failure of CA politicians to keep productive and creative people as well as businesses.

The trend is there whether you like it or not.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#340

Post by ryathal »

jjeaff wrote: post #293
robomartin wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about these numbers. What I can tell you is that the business exodus from CA is very real. This means less jobs, or, what could be worse, lower paying jobs. I know of entire companies who picked-up and left for places like Arizona and Texas. I personally cannot wait to be able to do the same. I want nothing whatsoever to do with California in terms of business. After decades of living here I am just sick…

The business property tax is for property over $100k. I don't think many offices have that much furniture. Also, it does not appear to be true that this tax is assessed on businesses outside of la county. Just how exactly are the figuring out who is driving "through" the county? They have to send you the assessment forms.

100k is pretty easy to hit with 75-100 employees. 100 desks, chairs, and computers is going to be at least that much. hopefully you don't have meeting rooms, printers/copiers, a waiting area, a break room with fridge/microwave/coffee/table/chairs...
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