California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds • Hacker News Board

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#221

Post by solveit » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 4:21 AM UTC

AmericanChopper wrote: post #122

solveit wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate to call something gaslighting, but this is gaslighting of the highest order. I am not familiar with Australian politics, but the other three cases were textbook cases of the data saying one thing (Trump might win, BoJo will probably win, and Brexit might happen) and people refusing to believe it. How these get turned to make precisely the opposite point (Not just by you. It happens all the time) never ceases t…

What exactly is “the data” that we’re talking about? Is it the measurements that were made, and the methodology used to make them? Or is it the conclusion that something in this case is a “myth”? Because I’d suggest that only one of those things is “the data”, and the other one is a subjective interpretation of it. I’d also suggest that people who have an agenda to promote will often attempt to blur the line as much…

In this case, the data I am talking about are the polls. Of course, there's a lot of methodology that goes into designing the polls and the data collection process, but those were basically solid and importantly, not subjective.

> I’d also suggest that people who have an agenda to promote will often attempt to blur the line as much as possible between empirical measurements, and their own opinions about what they’re supposed to mean.

This ran rampant in all those cases (Trump, BoJo, Brexit), I agree.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#222

Post by kelnos » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 4:22 AM UTC

Trias11 wrote: post #217

kelnos wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your anecdotes are not data. This research paper is, and I expect it's a lot more representative than your anecdotes are.

These are my real life experiences and real life observations. You can swallow whatever illusion you being fed by your local politician, close your eyes and assume it's a reality. You're intended audience. Tens of thousands of former californians ain't buying more of their taxes and neither more of their BS any more. Where voting with hands doesn't help - people are voting with their feet.

I'm not arguing that your real-life experiences aren't real, just that they may not be representative.

My lived experience is somewhere in the middle: I've seen some high earners leave, but more high earners stay. Based on this study, it seems my experience might be more representative of the whole.

Also not sure why you're taking this combative, condescending tone. Seems like you have an axe to grind and are emotionally attached to your position for some reason. But it does seem like you weren't happy in CA, so I'm glad you've found a place to live where you're happier.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#223

Post by dragonwriter » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 4:23 AM UTC

xadhominemx wrote: post #3

handmodel wrote: post #2

- The article says that "millionaire flight" out of California is a myth. This is mostly true and a good point. - However, the article/research looks at outflow and doesn't find a trend but this is bad methodology. It looks like they are not factoring in the fact that less people are moving into California then had been previously even if the rate moving out isn't too different. It almost feels intentional given how…

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

> The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

Also, high housing prices are allowing home-owning retirees to cash out and live the part of their life where they don't need to worry about a job quite well elsewhere.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#224

Post by kelnos » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 4:25 AM UTC

toast0 wrote: post #149

doitLP wrote: post #144

Well as someone moving out of California I’m having a hard time finding a moving truck, even 3 months out. uHaul and Ryder are having a hard time fulfilling demand because so many trucks are leaving California and so few are coming back.

There's also a lot of demand for moving trucks being used locally as delivery vehicles, since there's a surge in deliveries. Usually not the big trucks, but when a delivery service rents a small truck or van, someone who was going to rent that to move has to rent something bigger. It's riskier, but you might see if you can buy a used moving truck and plan to sell it at the destination. I've seen a few reports of peop…

I've also heard of people renting the smaller (and even some of the larger) moving vans/trucks because they want to rent a car, but car rental services have crazy low inventory due to a lot of shedding they had to do during the pandemic.

It seems crazy to rent a box truck just to be able to drive around town (parking has to be a nightmare), but people are doing it, or so I've heard, at least.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#225

Post by kelnos » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 4:27 AM UTC

kbrackbill wrote: post #167

One thing I'm interested in is, regardless of whether more californians are leaving or not, are californians driving up housing prices in the various obvious targets (oregon, idaho, montana, colorado, nevada)? I'm part of the "exodus" in that earlier this year I finally bailed on the bay area after living there my whole life for vegas, and the cost to buy a house here seems insane compared to renting and to similarly…

Just one data point, but a friend of mine who lives in Boulder, CO tells me that home prices have gone up a lot in the last year or so, and his belief is it's largely driven by people leaving CA. Might not be the full cause though.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#226

Post by rpearl » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 4:37 AM UTC

malshe wrote: post #173

handmodel wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess this is probably the story that gets repeated in places like HN which I agree is common. However, if you ever talk to uber drivers or your waiters they will complain about how expensive California is. Or even people at parties who are in between jobs and thinking of moving to where they grew up. I guess in real life I just hear more people talk about the general cost of living argument than a than the specifi…

I live in Texas and I whenever I go to California, I find it super expensive too! I am a unifier site professor and my salary is not very different from the professors in CA (State university salaries are public). I don’t know what is keeping those professors there.

This very much disagrees with you: https://www.aaup.org/sites/default/files/AAUP-2021-SurveyApp...

A sampling of average overall salaries for professors:

- UC Berkeley (ie bay area): $214,300

- UCLA: $234,200

- UT San Antonio: $130,900

- UT Dallas: $169,500

So an average Berkeley professor makes more than half again as much as an average UT San Antonio professor. And 25% more than UT Dallas.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#227

Post by crazyjncsu » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 4:43 AM UTC

mbesto wrote: post #71

BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

> It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans. Currently residing in Texas for 2.5 years now, moved from California. Yes, I anecdotally meet "a lot" of fellow NY/CA residents moving here. I also anecdotally have noticed that Whole Foods sells lots of local texan brewery beers. Are Texan local breweries on the rise in popularity or is it just that my p…

> But this is exactly how market dynamics work in a union of states

Which would be great if any other state had the weather and beauty of California. And California is fucking huge to boot. Not initially splitting it up into multiple states was one of the biggest mistakes in this nation’s history.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#228

Post by kelnos » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 4:44 AM UTC

partiallypro wrote: post #106

fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article you linked here says California’s population increased between the 2010 and 2020 census. The state lost a congressional district because other states grew faster.

Doesn't that prove the point though? Immigration into the state has clearly decreased.

Not really. An "exodus" implies a -- large -- net decrease in population. Decreased growth is not an exodus, even if it's driven more by people leaving than fewer people arriving.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#229

Post by wolverine876 » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 4:45 AM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #181

wolverine876 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently not. For example, of people leaving San Francisco: 72% moved elsewhere in the Bay area ~20% moved elsewhere in California The next most popular destination was Washington state, the majority going to Seattle. Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/article/Only-one-U-S-city-...

Lateral moves to another part of town or metro area are hardly worth noting, except that given the time period you're talking about, many people moved from the city to the suburbs during the height of Covid. It's a nice narrative to paint, but barring some turnaround for SF the writing is on the wall. The emigration was already hiking before the pandemic. "between 2019 and 2020, the number of households leaving skyro…

Snappy narratives aren't data, but they are a good cover for not having a better argument.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#230

Post by wolverine876 » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 4:47 AM UTC

beckingz wrote: post #178

wolverine876 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think those small samples need to be larger than that, and they have to be representative samples. > I am not trying to push a political narrative, and that the people who are should kindly jump off a cliff. I am not at all saying that you are. I'm saying that the narrative affects the situation. I agree about the cliff!

9 people gets you a significant portion of the confidence that a larger survey provides.

? It depends on the size of the population. I don't believe surveying 9 people will tell you anything about public opinion among the ~325 million Americans.

And again, it must be representative. Should I ask 9 friends of mine?