California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

Post by Acrobatic_Road » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 7:39 AM UTC

spoonjim wrote: post #88

cjsplat wrote: post #31

US census data says about 650k people left California between 2018 and 2019, out of a population of 39M, or 1.6% In dramatic contrast, in Texas, 450k left out of 28M, or 1.6% Nationwide, 7 million people changed states out of 324 M, or 2.1% https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geograph...

What about the inflows to each?

Post by tomjakubowski » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 7:40 AM UTC

xyzzyz wrote: post #252

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not really weird that immigrants start in California and then wind up elsewhere. That’s normal, and they are quickly replaced with new immigrants anyways. California (and originally New York) as waypoints in immigration before dispersal elsewhere is a very old concept. > That’s really what illustrates people voting with their feet. If you Google “California population”, you get a graph where Texas and California…

It is in fact weird. The entire question is, why don’t these immigrants stay in California? What do the find so repellent, or what do they find so attractive elsewhere that is not available in California?

Post by random314 » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 7:52 AM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #258

dragonwriter wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m skeptical about counting international immigrants here. International immigration is a function of a very specific thing, in California’s case a measure of H1-B sponsor companies. Most years, California has had more net inbound (not gross) international migration than the national H-1B cap. You are greatly exaggerating the role of the H-1B in California stats. > If Indians come to California so they can get an…

Immigrants face unique constraints in their choice of where to live. Places that have lots of immigrants will attract more because of family-based migration and people’s desire to be closer to support networks. But that still indirectly comes down to the availability of jobs that will sponsor immigrants. My dad sponsored other members of our family to immigrate. They settled in New York City, because it’s a great pla…

Post by cmckn » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 7:57 AM UTC

korethr wrote: post #255

cmckn wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That Bezos quote is pretty dodgy, but to address your point: Ask anyone in Denver and they'll tell you there's a mass exodus out of Chicago. Or ask anyone in Miami and they'll tell you there's a mass exodus out of Philly. People move around. I think this is a similar phenomenon to buying a car and "seeing that car everywhere all of a sudden." It's all about perspective. In this sense, data is always better than anecd…

No, we'll tell you there's a mass exodus out of Texas and California, because that's the majority of out-of-state plates on the road in the metro area. And also the majority of out-of-state plates on vehicles that have gone into the ditch or median when it snows. Denver sucks now. Kindly find somewhere else to go, y'all have been sending my rent through the damned roof, and companies insist on paying pre-boom salarie…

Post by Black101 » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 8:09 AM UTC

deep-root wrote: post #44

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…