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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#91

Post by ardit33 »

tomc1985 wrote: post #62
xadhominemx wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suburban and housing costs in California are very high by national standards. Is your argument that the people who are moving out of California overwhelmingly non-native Californians?

Once you are out of the main coastal communities housing prices drop dramatically. I have friends in Eureka renting a gigantic house for like $1200/mo, and I saw studio apartments in the city center in the order of $750/mo. The SoCal equivalents would be $3500/mo-plus and $1500/mo-plus, respectively.

So Eureka Ca, which is in the middle of nowhere costs about the same as the suburbs of Raleigh NC. Raleigh has a mid level international airport with direct flights to Europe and other continents, has many other cities and great schools in it, and nearby (NC State, UNC Chapel Hill, Duke, etc), (the whole research triangle), etc... with plenty of job opportunities.

What does Eureka have (appart for nice nature)? How much does one has to drive to go to an airport that can fly directly to Europe or Asia? If your local business closed, how long and how much would you have to drive to find another job?

Commanding a mid-level metro prices, without the economy vibrancy of one, is sheer overpricing. And maybe that's why so many locals are leaving. (the influx is usually immigrants, which are more willing to put up with crappier conditions).

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#92

Post by not2b »

quesera wrote: post #75
tomc1985 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once you are out of the main coastal communities housing prices drop dramatically. I have friends in Eureka renting a gigantic house for like $1200/mo, and I saw studio apartments in the city center in the order of $750/mo. The SoCal equivalents would be $3500/mo-plus and $1500/mo-plus, respectively.

Right but this is just by virtue of CA being a big, long, state where the northern reaches are far away from the economically active parts. Eureka is charming enough, but it has no specific attractive force over any other (very) small coastal city where the next-larger city is many hours' drive away. Compare to Crescent City, or southern coastal Oregon. So yes, you're still in California up there, and housing is less…

Median income in Eureka is well below the national median income. It's a beautiful area, very mild weather, old growth redwoods nearby, and the Eureka/Arcata/Fortuna area has universities, some good restaurants, and top notch breweries. But there's almost no work. Illegal cannabis growing used to be really big in that area, and now legal cannabis is significant, but pay is really low.

Sure beats Crescent City though.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#93

Post by tomc1985 »

ardit33 wrote: post #91
tomc1985 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once you are out of the main coastal communities housing prices drop dramatically. I have friends in Eureka renting a gigantic house for like $1200/mo, and I saw studio apartments in the city center in the order of $750/mo. The SoCal equivalents would be $3500/mo-plus and $1500/mo-plus, respectively.

So Eureka Ca, which is in the middle of nowhere costs about the same as the suburbs of Raleigh NC. Raleigh has a mid level international airport with direct flights to Europe and other continents, has many other cities and great schools in it, and nearby (NC State, UNC Chapel Hill, Duke, etc), (the whole research triangle), etc... with plenty of job opportunities. What does Eureka have (appart for nice nature)? How m…

I chose Eureka because I know people there and have direct experience with the town, even if it is an extreme example. If I knew folks and the housing situation in Stockton, or Modesto, or Bakersfield, or even Temecula, or any of those other armpit Central-Valley cities, I would have used them as an example.

And you're right, maybe Raleigh is a better choice. Or maybe Minneapolis. Or perhaps Boise, or any number of other mid-size capitol cities. But they aren't California.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#94

Post by Proven »

> only 23% of California voters said they were seriously considering leaving the state

Is that supposed to be good news?

> Affluent Californians were actually more satisfied with the direction the state is going

Detached and delusional. After making 5 mil on stock options in recent weeks, the Pelosis must be very satisfied with California. I guess it's justified in some cases.

> and very likely to believe it will be better when their children grow up

Seriously? Homelessness, looting and disorder are 3rd world style.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#95

Post by thebradbain »

almost_usual wrote: post #41
handmodel wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess this is probably the story that gets repeated in places like HN which I agree is common. However, if you ever talk to uber drivers or your waiters they will complain about how expensive California is. Or even people at parties who are in between jobs and thinking of moving to where they grew up. I guess in real life I just hear more people talk about the general cost of living argument than a than the specifi…

> who are in between jobs and thinking of moving to where they grew up I hear the opposite, people cannot afford where they grew up. Most people from the Bay Area aren’t working high paying tech jobs. > I guess in real life I just hear more people talk about the general cost of living argument than a than the specific anti-tech one. Anti-tech sentiment peaked in the early 2010s. Tech buses stopped being vandalized an…

> Anti-tech sentiment peaked in the early 2010s. Tech buses stopped being vandalized and the “die techie scum” thing mostly went away after 2015.

While we're comparing anecdotal evidence, I live in Los Angeles and count among my peers many who work in the Hollywood/Media industry. I can assure you the general sentiment among them toward Big Tech is overwhelmingly negative. I work in tech (albeit not a large company) and even I tend to agree.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#98

Post by tomc1985 »

wolverine876 wrote: post #81
tomc1985 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that it is happening, if my anecdata is to be believed, and that sampling theory suggests it might be (or have been) a trend. As a CA native I love my state, but it is also important to understand other perspectives.

> sampling theory suggests it might be (or have been) a trend How does sampling theory support that your two experiences might be a trend? I got two flat tires in the last ten years. Does sampling theory say it's a trend? Statewide? Worldwide? > it is also important to understand other perspectives Absolutely, but let's remember that much of the narrative has been pushed by a political faction for years.

> How does sampling theory support that your two experiences might be a trend? I got two flat tires in the last ten years. Does sampling theory say it's a trend? Statewide? Worldwide?

I don't run with startup/entrepreneurial types, so for this to come up in the way it has with my limited exposure to these folks, I consider that at least somewhat significant. I am not saying it is definitely a trend. But I do remember from my social science labs that ballpark-accurate statistical inferences can be made from surprisingly small sample sizes if the population sampled is broad enough. Do I just happen to find myself around locationally-anxious ex-Californian business owners? Who knows.

> Absolutely, but let's remember that much of the narrative has been pushed by a political faction for years

Ah yes, politics' icy tendrils (tentacles?) seem to molest everything they come across, and even some things they don't. All I can say is that I am not trying to push a political narrative, and that the people who are should kindly jump off a cliff.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#100

Post by partiallypro »

xadhominemx wrote: post #3
handmodel wrote: post #2

- The article says that "millionaire flight" out of California is a myth. This is mostly true and a good point. - However, the article/research looks at outflow and doesn't find a trend but this is bad methodology. It looks like they are not factoring in the fact that less people are moving into California then had been previously even if the rate moving out isn't too different. It almost feels intentional given how…

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

True but I do wonder if there has been a shift in primary residency among the wealthy. You have to have a residence in California if you're rich, it's just part of it.
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