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Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

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Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#181

Post by lumost »

wishigotitfree wrote: post #25

Starting conditions (where one was born, levels of wealth and opportunity there, one's parents' education and jobs) are shockingly predictive about an individual's future. Hard work leading to social mobility has always been the exception, not the rule. Most will not beat the odds since if they did, those wouldn't BE the odds. A lot of us are just so deluded by survivorship bias borne of listening only to success sto…

There was an odd period of time between roughly 1820 and 1970 where economic and industrial growth outpaced loans and other passive financial products in both stability of returns and rate of returns. This period minted many wealthy individuals as well as a large middle class as starting position matters less if GDP is growing at 5-10% consistently.

This isn't to say that starting position doesn't matter, I'm sure most of the vanderbuilts are still doing reasonably well.

When interest rates and returns on labor are low it becomes difficult to get ahead by either working smart or hard for the majority of individuals.

Even in the tech sector, the most lucrative approach is to simply work with a dominant firm. Founders/Employees give up too much equity and have too little cash flow to compete.

Taken to the extreme this economy looks more like a feudal economy of court jesters, peasants, and lords then the proto-industrial economies Adam Smith wrote about.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#182

Post by TuringNYC »

paulluuk wrote: post #98
throwaway0a5e wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much social mobility we talking? Statistically nobody goes from trailer park to billionare by working hard. You have very, very, good odds of doing better than your parents if you manage to get to age 25 without incurring a felony record, addiction to something that will likely kill you or too many child support payments. edit: I'm only talking about the US

I don't really know the stats, but I'm curious if this is true. Yes, GDP has been going up for a long time in many countries, and so the "average wealth" of each generation is going up. However, is the same true for purchasing power? Sometimes you hear about these mythical stories of janitors who could afford to actually buy a house, despite having two children and their partners being stay-at-home moms. And yet toda…

>> And yet today, I hear so many stories about 30 year olds with masters degrees who are still living with their parents because they can't afford to rent a studio.

Part of the problem here is a different problem -- the concentration of jobs in super high cost metro areas, and often also, the NIMBYism that prevents such high cost metro areas from building more housing to address demand.

There are so many affordable studios to rent. And so many jobs, and sadly they aren't co-located...

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#183

Post by steveBK123 »

myth_drannon wrote: post #120
steveBK123 wrote: post #31

You had the post-WW2 boom, which then wound down in the 80s/90s but there was a small resurgence of "everyone is getting rich" in the late-90s Dotcom bubble and then finally the run up into the housing bubble. Since we have fallen back to a more historically traditional model - hard work can advance your life, but you are capped within certain bands by where you start, by and large. Where you start is regional, famil…

More like it was the collapse of USSR in the 80's and diminished threat of Communism in west that caused oligarchs to be bolder and grab more share of national wealth. Specially in the last year or two when only select few got extremely rich by loading debt on the rest of society. I wonder if Amazon's working conditions would be possible in the 60-70s with strong labour unions back then.

Sure that's a factor, but people discount how much 1940-1980 was a historical anomaly for the US. Virtually every advanced industrial economy with which we competed had their industrial base leveled and colonial empires in full retreat. They then spent 1950s-1970s rebuilding. Then China came online as an industrial power in the 1980s-2000s. By 2000 the scale of competition on cost and/or quality with our industrial might was at a scale we had not seen in generations.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#184

Post by simiones »

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #100
9wzYQbTYsAIc wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that social mobility implies being able to climb the ladder from destitute to poor, poor to modestly wealthy, etc. and not referring to jumping to the 1% from destitution.

Exactly. And everyone seems to think that the fact that all the billionaires came from a situation of decent familial wealth enabling them to make big bets refutes the fact that most people who don't screw up too bad end their career much better than they started and that most people's kids manage to start a rung up or so. Plumber sends his kids to community college and all that.

> Plumber sends his kids to community college and all that.

This is precisely the wrong model, one which accepts that there is no guarantee of equal opportunity. You're describing a promise almost as unworkable as the promise of heaven: if you're born poor, and you do everything well in life, your grandchildren's grandchildren will have a chance to enjoy the good life!

That is not what a democratic free society should mean.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#185

Post by est »

altacc wrote: post #52
cousin_it wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The fact is whenever quick upward mobility has been possible anywhere for a large number of people, it has been built upon slavery, colonialism and/or cheap imported labour. Which of these was responsible for China's rise from poverty?

All of them. It's certainly true that there are other important factors and I don't think the parent poster's list is exhaustive, but these are crucial factors in China's current rise. Slavery: we know there are factories inside their "reeducation camps" Colonialism: Internally, Han Chinese are encouraged to migrate & take over areas of the country where other ethnics groups have traditionally been the majority. Abro…

except China "annexed" those regions in the 50s which had a shockingly slow economical growth and had a famine at that time.

And China setup those "camps" and had a local GDP stagnation. Before the camps there was double digit growth every year and then terror attack came and everything went downhill.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#186

Post by lapetitejort »

colanderman wrote: post #140
ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #56

Every morning, I get up at 5, and go for a two-mile walk. Often, my walk coincides with the route of the garbage collection truck. Man, those dudes work hard . It makes my shoulders ache, just watching them. They are fast, energetic, efficient, and precise. Around here, they are generally Latinos, and they have quite high-paying jobs, compared to a lot of their peers. It's a dirty, dangerous job, and the benefits are…

This is the first I've heard of tipping trash collectors. Apparently it's a thing? How, logistically, does one even accomplish that?

Most likely by tying a bag with an envelope inside to the handle of the trash can. Or you can just run up to them if they come by at a reasonable time. People also tip postal workers, paper boys, milkmen (which still existed in my youth at least), generally anyone who takes or leaves anything at the house.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#187

Post by freddieoduks »

esens wrote: post #37

Working hard but doing so for someone else can often not lead to significant gains. Many services like Uber or InstaCart or even McDonalds or Amazon Warehouse or Walmart or Retail Sales or call center, you can work hard but there is no where to progress to. Your rewards are capped. You need to find a way to work hard such that your rewards are not capped artificially. Startups were you get equity. Large companies whe…

> You need to find a way to work hard such that your rewards are not capped artificially.

Well said!

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#188

Post by sethammons »

thenaturalist wrote: post #54
optimiz3 wrote: post #21

For those that don't read, this is a global population survey, not an American one. If you're American, surprise - you're much more likely to believe work pays off. Won't stop the parade of people with unsubstantiated statements about how much society sucks despite the frankly marvelous QoL advances over the past several hundred years. Also, total sample size is 500. Globally.

Unsubstantiated.... Hm, your comment implies that this parade of people is deliberately ignoring QoL improvements. I think this is not the case. What's important is to remember that everything is relative. For sure QoL has improved significantly. But so has the relative share of wealth of those who already are wealthy. Look at wealth, not income measures and distribution, let alone how much wealth the richest people…

All the survey said is people have a dim 5-yr outlook. You are reading deeper than that.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#189

Post by IQunder130 »

simiones wrote: post #152
throwaway0a5e wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much social mobility we talking? Statistically nobody goes from trailer park to billionare by working hard. You have very, very, good odds of doing better than your parents if you manage to get to age 25 without incurring a felony record, addiction to something that will likely kill you or too many child support payments. edit: I'm only talking about the US

> You have very, very, good odds of doing better than your parents if you manage to get to age 25 without incurring a felony record, addiction to something that will likely kill you or too many child support payments. That is a laughably low bar, and it is unlikely for the trend you are describing to continue past the move from poor to lower middle class. In a fair society, with equality of opportunity, it should be…

>That is the normal social mobility we should expect in a democratic society

That might be what we expect from a perfectly egalitarian society, but expecting any free, democratic society to come even close to perfect egalitarianism is completely delusional.

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