> no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan There could also be support in the US for keeping China from expanding its power to the point where it can rival the US. That is, fighting against China rather than for Taiwan. I'm not saying that would necessarily be enough either, but people are more willing to die to protect their own country's interests than to help someone else. EDIT: Not sur…
There are powerful voices working behind the scenes within the US military industrial complex who believe that an eventual conflict with China is inevitable. So they would prefer to provoke that conflict sooner rather than wait for China to grow stronger. (I don't agree with this approach, I'm just pointing out that it is one school of thought.)
Source? Where can I read more about these "powerful voices"?
I'm not sure what history books you are reading, but Britain did, in fact, have slavery, and traded in slaves during the American Revolution. Trade of slaves was not outlawed in Britain until 1807 and ownership of slaves was not outlawed in Britain until 1833.
History books about things that happened rather than, say, squinting hard to rationalise unhappy truths? Britain didn't have slavery†. The 1833 act abolishes slavery in the Colonies, not in Britain itself. The existence of slavery in the colonies is why there were slaves in America to seek freedom by fighting for the British there. So like I said, the British freed those on their side, while the colonists unsurprisin…
So Britain didn't exist until 1833? It wouldn't have been in the US if Britain didn't bring it.
> will just ban all Chinese trade This can’t be done without triggering a depression and causing massive shortages. The economies are too connected. We could add more sanctions, increase tariffs look at better trade deals to encourage buying non China. But the idea of just banning Chinese trade is fantasy.
> The economies are too connected US export to China represents only 6% of total (100B out of 1.5T) and import is 18% (439B out of 2.38T). Most of import is likely not critical and can easily be substituted by domestic manufacturers, or manufacturers from other countries. Source of data: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa
Gonna need a citation on that easily substituted. Ending trade with China would kill Apple for instance.
Due to the one child policy, China is going to experience a demographic collapse this decade as more people retire than are available to replace them in the workforce. So the 2020s is the pivotal decade as China nears the height of its power. The CCP is aware of this and knows that if they are ever going to take Taiwan, it would ideally be this decade. Politically, it will also need a victory as the Chinese economy i…
They probably will have demographic problems, but a collapse this decade seems a bit of an aggressive schedule. Pulling up some numbers here (don't know much about the subject): "In 2050, the proportion of Chinese over retirement age will become 39 percent of the total population. At that time, its dependency ratio will rise to 69.7%" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_China Assuming this is referring to the tota…
Relative to where it was in the 80s, Japan has collapsed. It has gone from over half of the United States' GDP to under a quarter. It's still doing well because when you start out in that strong of a position there's a lot of room to fall and still be healthy. If China follows the same arc as Japan did, China of 2050 will have significantly less influence on the world than China has today.
What I meant is declare themselves independent from mainland China (dropping the claims on the mainland). This would provoke China by violating the Anti-Secession Law [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Secession_Law
Article 8 is a doozy. I was ignorant of it. From the sounds of it, Taiwan doesn't want to declare its independence nor signal there is no hope of peaceful reunification with mainland China because either of these would trigger an attack mandated by PRC law. It really does seem as though Taiwan is between a rock and a hard place here. To gain formal status as a country and enter formal mutual defence treaties, they'd…
PRC/ROC dynamic is formally an unfinished civil war, it's diplomatically a domestic issue between two governments representing one China, where recognition is mutually exclusive. The current peace / détente is held together by a bunch of incongruous agreements, i.e. article 8 & 92 consensus between PRC/ROC, three communiqués between PRC/US, TW relations act between ROC/US to make the current arrangement somewhat workable. I don't think even "peaceful" legal options exist at UN anymore, article 18 can add new members with 2/3 vote, but resolution 2758 that changed UN recognition from ROC to PRC precludes Taiwanese politicians from joining as they are technically representatives of a Chinese province. There would need to be overhaul of UN, modern IR and Westphalian sovereignty system for TW to exist as a separate country from PRC which isn't likely to happen with PRC influence. Formal TW recognition (and derecognition of PRC) by outside parties still does not change civil war dynamic which can't be ended unilaterally by one party or outside parties. There's no way out but to fight and win for TW, and win sufficiently to be able to dictate terms to PRC and have PRC surrender agreed formally so as to enable the creation two separate sovereign states. Even then it doesn't change underlying PRC desire to regain Taiwan, whether that's resumption of civil war, via illegal war, or declaration of legal war. TW independence is a military problem, I think people are deluding themselves if they belief there's a political two country solution, especially by third parties.
> The economies are too connected US export to China represents only 6% of total (100B out of 1.5T) and import is 18% (439B out of 2.38T). Most of import is likely not critical and can easily be substituted by domestic manufacturers, or manufacturers from other countries. Source of data: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa
Gonna need a citation on that easily substituted. Ending trade with China would kill Apple for instance.
Not recognizing Taiwan doesn't make any sense unless you fear retaliation from China, which is exactly the point. People say US will save Taiwan from China? I call bullshit. If that was true US should have no trouble recognizing Taiwan which would be hopefully be start of the process of getting legitimacy Taiwan needs. I fully expect US to do nothing if China invades Taiwan. Mark my words.
If the US "fears" retaliation from red china, why are they selling weapons to the republic? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipme...
Do you really think those outdated weapons can do them any harm? They are just used to show an attitude.
Someone mentioned in an earlier discussion here without sources that the TSMC is rigged to blow in case of such an event.
Well, some public here tend to think about TSMC as something solid and uniform, one can possess and/or takeover. Heck, no! TSMC is a complex organism consisting of thousands of talented engineers and scientists, top-notch equipment that require servicing, thousands of suppliers, software and IP modules bound by licensing and servicing agreements with hundreds of western companies. A faint hint of military action arou…
This rumor could have been propagated by Taiwan itself, The economic fallout from the loss of TSMC for the aggressor is high enough that this could indeed be a credible deterrent.