141–150 of 236 posts
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I guess you haven't been paying attention to recent announcements in the US... they are pursuing just that policy since Biden came into office.
Since Trump, but it is great that Biden kept it.
If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…
I don't think they had or needed substantial local support in Crimea. A bunch of zealots will do.
If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…
> Also it's not like Crimea annexation where the aggressor had local support. As a crimean, I find the way you write “Crimea wanted to become part of Russia” extremely funny.
I think this article essentially misses the mark. China isn't flirting with taking Taiwan because the leader is willing to take risks; China is flirting with taking Taiwan because it now has overwhelming military superiority over Taiwan. The United States has bases thousands of miles away while Chinese bases are literally right there. China's capital spending on military capabilities (new + direct research & developm…
I think you are forgetting that there are nuclear missile submarines within striking distance of every major Chinese city. This is a game of chicken, not a game of "who has better logistics."
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Currently the US is not choosing either of these because they both have downsides. In (1), this may embolden Taiwan to take risky and provocative actions such as declaring themselves an independent country. (2) is obviously not in US interests. Instead, the current US position is strategic ambiguity. It is clear there is probably a line somewhere after which the US will intervene, but it is not clear to either side w…
Taiwan already officially considers itself an independent country, and maintains a large, sophisticated military for the purpose of defending this status.
Fun fact: satellite photos of China's largest military base show that it contains a detailed, lifesize replica of a part of downtown Taipei including the presidential palace. I wonder what the soldiers on that base might be training for?
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>Crimea and Ukraine are geopolitically not very useful. Taiwan is extremely useful, especially if it allows defense access to e.g. American warships. A large reason for the annexation of Ukraine was the question of control of Russia's only warm-water seaport at Sevastopol. I doubt Russia would have bothered (given the international consequences, i.e. sanctions and potential military intervention) if their access to t…
But Russia was already leasing it from Ukraine. Ultimately Crimea is of limited strategic value for anyone other than Russia. The same cannot be said for Taiwan.
This is the same reason why Russia got involved in Syria, it has only a handful of warm water ports and essentially all of them are at a precarious position where they ship need to traverse potentially hostile choke points.
I would imagine that one of the biggest concerns associated with China taking over Taiwan is that China would gain control over some of the most significant semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the world.
Someone mentioned in an earlier discussion here without sources that the TSMC is rigged to blow in case of such an event.
The same measure is taken for other valuable targets. For example, many major bridges in the US are rigged to self-destruct in the event of capture during land invasion. You won't find much information about this online. All I can say is, there's a reason why many jobs at the US DOT require a security clearance. If you want to read up on another real world example of this, here's an article about how Switzerland implemented this: https://99percentinvisible.org/article/designed-for-demoliti...
There is an interesting theory by Dimitry Khalezov concerning 9/11. He states that this was also done for the NYC World Trade Center and the Chicago Sears Tower. He claims the event occured because a bad actor gained control of this demolition system for the WTC, and that the planes were part of a cover story. It's an interesting explanation. Check it out if you're interested: https://youtu.be/IU7KRHOdnuo
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There's recognizing and "recognizing". Everyone knows Taiwan is a separate country. But for political reasons (helping China save face, keep making money from China) they don't openly acknowledge it. It's totally different from Crimea situation.
Not recognizing Taiwan doesn't make any sense unless you fear retaliation from China, which is exactly the point. People say US will save Taiwan from China? I call bullshit. If that was true US should have no trouble recognizing Taiwan which would be hopefully be start of the process of getting legitimacy Taiwan needs. I fully expect US to do nothing if China invades Taiwan. Mark my words.
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There are many pro-China people living in Taiwan. So there is local support...
Anecdotal, but I lived in Taiwan for several years and never met anyone who was even remotely pro-CCP.