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U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

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Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#21

Post by djohnston »

Abishek_Muthian wrote: post #6
inetsee wrote: post #2

I would imagine that one of the biggest concerns associated with China taking over Taiwan is that China would gain control over some of the most significant semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the world.

Someone mentioned in an earlier discussion here without sources that the TSMC is rigged to blow in case of such an event.

I definitely believe Taiwan would rather burn it than see it in the hands of their greatest adversary. Rigged to blow seems silly but I expect they would bomb it to dust.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#22

Post by nomdep »

randomsearch wrote: post #15
leke wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be good for the rest of the world to start having an alternative source of chip development. It's really not a good idea to have such dependence on one producer you can trust.

I guess you haven't been paying attention to recent announcements in the US... they are pursuing just that policy since Biden came into office.

Since Trump, but it is great that Biden kept it.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#23

Post by hawk_ »

pulse7 wrote: post #20
hawk_ wrote: post #7

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…

There are many pro-China people living in Taiwan. So there is local support...

Didn't get that feeling on my travels there pre 2015. Not sure why that could have changed drastically since.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#24

Post by tlibert »

pulse7 wrote: post #20
hawk_ wrote: post #7

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…

There are many pro-China people living in Taiwan. So there is local support...

Electoral results speak conclusively to their relatively small numbers.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#25

Post by tlibert »

ceilingcorner wrote: post #17

This would be an exceptionally impatient move. If China’s economic machine continues to grow + mainland culture becomes more appealing, I could see Taiwan wanting to reunite in a few decades. It’s the same situation with Hong Kong. Had they initiated the changeover more slowly, there would be far less resistance. Instead, they ignited a movement that will probably never go away. Xi’s downfall will be his inability to…

They’ve had nukes for a while, unfortunately this could be viewed as the patient approach.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#26

Post by javert »

aphextron wrote: post #19
hawk_ wrote: post #7

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…

>Also it's not like Crimea annexation where the aggressor had local support. Although very much like Crimea, there will be practically zero popular appetite for igniting an open war between two nuclear armed nation states. We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution, but I would strongly doubt that military action will be responded to in kind by the west. A much more likely scenario is what we've seen play out in Ho…

> We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution

That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested.

I hope for either no conflict at all, or for Taiwan's allies to help defend it.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#27

Post by scpedicini »

pulse7 wrote: post #20
hawk_ wrote: post #7

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…

There are many pro-China people living in Taiwan. So there is local support...

Anecdotal, but I lived in Taiwan for several years and never met anyone who was even remotely pro-CCP.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#28

Post by [deleted] »

aphextron wrote: post #19
hawk_ wrote: post #7

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…

>Also it's not like Crimea annexation where the aggressor had local support. Although very much like Crimea, there will be practically zero popular appetite for igniting an open war between two nuclear armed nation states. We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution, but I would strongly doubt that military action will be responded to in kind by the west. A much more likely scenario is what we've seen play out in Ho…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#29

Post by rolph »

leke wrote: post #13
whereis wrote: post #4

If China takes Taiwan, that would shift the balance of power due to Taiwan's role as the leading global chip fabricator. The most recent episode of the podcast ChinaTalk, "China's Chip Dreams", dated March 26, 2021, is relevant.

It would be good for the rest of the world to start having an alternative source of chip development. It's really not a good idea to have such dependence on one producer you can trust.

i wish i could share the link, but i havnt bookmarked it, there was a considerable discussion[s] regarding small scale chip fabrication in a garage just for the "shizenschpiel"

[ADNDM] turns out i can share the link after a brief search here is one of them :

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24604093

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23fTB3hG5cA

and credit where credit is due:

http://sam.zeloof.xyz/category/semiconductor/

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#30

Post by yumraj »

whereis wrote: post #4

If China takes Taiwan, that would shift the balance of power due to Taiwan's role as the leading global chip fabricator. The most recent episode of the podcast ChinaTalk, "China's Chip Dreams", dated March 26, 2021, is relevant.

Well rather than let China get control of the fabs, US and allies might just decide to blow them up.

No one really knows how this is all going to play out..

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