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U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

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Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#61

Post by Simulacra »

sneak wrote: post #52
hawk_ wrote: post #7

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…

The anti-China rhetoric and propaganda in the USA has been steadily ramping up over the last 3-5 years as well, for better or worse. I don't think this is an accident or happenstance. If China decided to take Taiwan in a small and local (and, let's be honest: extremely quick) action, there would be broad domestic support in the US for the US interfering.

This is why Taiwan should have nuclear weapons.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#62

Post by nayuki »

whoooooo123 wrote: post #44

Fun fact: satellite photos of China's largest military base show that it contains a detailed, lifesize replica of a part of downtown Taipei including the presidential palace. I wonder what the soldiers on that base might be training for?

Some sources: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33591/chinas-biggest-b... ; https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china... ; https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/07/24...

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#63

Post by Defenestresque »

ceilingcorner wrote: post #39
lmilcin wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia took Crimea even though it was recognized as territory of Ukraine. No large power recognizes Taiwan as sovereign country, not even US. The largest country that recognizes Taiwan is Guatemala. I don't see how it is out of the question that China just sails to Taiwan and takes it while everybody else stands and watches.

Very different situation. Just analyze them from a realpolitik perspective and not the “international law” one: - Crimeans are predominately Russian speakers and so the annexation was somewhat popular. Very little bloodshed or ongoing resistance. An invasion of Taiwan would not be popular among the Taiwanese. - Crimea and Ukraine are geopolitically not very useful. Taiwan is extremely useful, especially if it allows…

>Crimea and Ukraine are geopolitically not very useful. Taiwan is extremely useful, especially if it allows defense access to e.g. American warships.

A large reason for the annexation of Ukraine was the question of control of Russia's only warm-water seaport at Sevastopol. I doubt Russia would have bothered (given the international consequences, i.e. sanctions and potential military intervention) if their access to the Black Sea wasn't threatened by Ukraine's increasing ties with the West.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#64

Post by randmeerkat »

aphextron wrote: post #38
javert wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested. I hope for either no conflict at all, or for Taiwan's allies to help defend it.

>"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested." I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII. It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as…

I believe there would be strong domestic support in the US for committing the full strength of the US military to Taiwan’s defense. It’s not sending American soldiers to die for for Taiwan, its sending American soldiers to fight for western values and allies that America is legally obligated to defend.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#65

Post by a_f »

whoooooo123 wrote: post #44

Fun fact: satellite photos of China's largest military base show that it contains a detailed, lifesize replica of a part of downtown Taipei including the presidential palace. I wonder what the soldiers on that base might be training for?

Do you have aa source at all please? I would like to see more Edit: I see it posted above

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#66

Post by Simulacra »

ginko wrote: post #51
whereis wrote: post #4

If China takes Taiwan, that would shift the balance of power due to Taiwan's role as the leading global chip fabricator. The most recent episode of the podcast ChinaTalk, "China's Chip Dreams", dated March 26, 2021, is relevant.

I don't see a scenario where China gets anything more than a smoldering crater in terms of industry if they manage to take Taiwan by force.

Maybe a solution is to arm the Taiwanese citizens.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#67

Post by cpleppert »

I think this article essentially misses the mark. China isn't flirting with taking Taiwan because the leader is willing to take risks; China is flirting with taking Taiwan because it now has overwhelming military superiority over Taiwan.

The United States has bases thousands of miles away while Chinese bases are literally right there. China's capital spending on military capabilities (new + direct research & development) is almost certainly higher than the United States which is burdened by personnel spending and world spanning commitments. China can afford to focus its gigantic military preparations on a single objective; its preparations are literally mind-blowing.

As for when China will seek or threaten a military solution it depends on tradeoffs that only the leadership knows. Does China want a provocation to unify its society in a war? What margin of military superiority does it require to avoid long term economic damage to Taiwan's economic prospects? Will the world become more dependent on Taiwanese semiconductors or less? Most importantly, how does CCP view the benefits of ruling a unified China as opposed to the costs of a war?

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#68

Post by dragonwriter »

lmilcin wrote: post #32
hawk_ wrote: post #7

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…

Russia took Crimea even though it was recognized as territory of Ukraine. No large power recognizes Taiwan as sovereign country, not even US. The largest country that recognizes Taiwan is Guatemala. I don't see how it is out of the question that China just sails to Taiwan and takes it while everybody else stands and watches.

No one may formally recognize Taiwan, but lots of major countries have done a lot more to arm and prepare to protect Taiwan from China than anyone ever did Ukraine from Russia pre-Crimea.

Recognition isn't nothing, but concrete support without recognition is more valuable than the reverse.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#69

Post by stanislavb »

kstenerud wrote: post #37

Now is the most favorable time for China to strike. With everyone reeling from the pandemic, a centralized government can temporarily move faster than everyone else and consolidate faster than everyone else. A chance like this won't come again, so I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't make their move this year.

Unfortunately this makes sense :/
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