Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators • Hacker News Board

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#111

Post by pablovidal85 » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 12:39 PM UTC

h0nd wrote: post #87

SonicTheSith wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are aware that we have a global pandemic right? So if even you won't treat everyone as a possible threat, the chance that 'guests' bring in the virus is high. Since Japan is an island, most people will fly there by plane and most people will be inside the plane for at least 6 hours+. Even if at half capacity the chance that there is 1 infectious person/ person becoming infectious is high. All Tests are snapshots…

Thank you, I feel this needs some explanation. >You are aware that we have a global pandemic right? It would be a very difficult task to avoid noticing. >So if even you won't treat everyone as a possible threat, the chance that 'guests' bring in the virus is high. Since Japan is an island, most people will fly there by plane and most people will be inside the plane for at least 6 hours+. Even if at half capacity the…

> there is a staggering 22% positivity rate in Tokyo today

Do you mind citing your source? A quick search got me a 3.3% positivity rate [0] as of today.

[0]: https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/cards/positive-rate...

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#112

Post by rjsw » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 12:45 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #103

DevX101 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hosting the Olympics costs somewhere between US$15-20 billion. If the goal is really to put a city 'on the map' you could spend less than 5% of that money on an extensive cultural/tourism marketing campaign and have more of an effect. I've yet to meet anyone who's chosen Sochi as a vacation destination.

Winter Olympics locations rarely end up as tourist destinations because people take fewer international vacations to cold locations. Summer Olympics have a better shot, and the stadiums can more often be useful long term. But, it’s still low odds of success. The best bet seems to be a lesser known location which can use most of the infrastructure and has some non Olympics tourist destinations. Which isn’t a huge list…

> Winter Olympics locations rarely end up as tourist destinations because people take fewer international vacations to cold locations.

I would describe it differently, the facilities used for skiing events are usually already tourist locations, plenty of people take international skiing vacations.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#113

Post by toyg » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 12:55 PM UTC

bamboozled wrote: post #109

toyg wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe what is wrong is our media-fuelled expectation that we should have perfect day-to-day metrics, rather than 5- or 10-day averages.

Well, you can just combine the daily data and extrapolate the results across any time frame you have data points for? Are you suggesting that the media is to blame for something?

It was you who pointed at the day-to-day discrepancies and asked "what's the point then". The point is to have a metric that you can work with in realistic timeframes, e.g. every week or every other week. The day-to-day discrepancy is not a big deal, unless you work in the media and you have to push a daily bulletin to ensure "engagement".

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#114

Post by brigandish » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 1:02 PM UTC

cdavid wrote: post #106

brigandish wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest difference is in the waistlines. As reported just the other day[0]: > Of the 2.5 million COVID-19 deaths reported by the end of February 2021, 2.2 million were in countries where more than half the population is classified as overweight Japan is not one of those countries. As someone who lives in Japan I can tell you that the general population isn't wearing high quality, fitted masks in controlled condit…

Obesity does not really explain order of magnitude fewer cases, and obesity is much less of a factor than age for mortality. I can't find the numbers now, but it is better to be younger and quite fat than much older and fit. Japan does not lack people above 85 years where the fatality rate is double digit if you catch the disease. The only reasonable answer I have seen so far about Japan is that we don't really know.…

Well, problems with obesity might also correlate with older, wealthier populations but they also looked at that:

> The figures are affected by the age structure of national populations and a country’s relative wealth and reporting capacity, but our findings appear to be independent of these contributory factors

It's got links to a lot of other studies (admittedly, I'm yet to read those) but the summaries they give seem to really place the importance on the size of the waistline.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#115

Post by AnIdiotOnTheNet » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 1:02 PM UTC

Blikkentrekker wrote: post #73

toyg wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think "the world accepts it", but they are resigned to the fact that the moneyed interests powering these events are unstoppable. Which may or may not be true. Some of the opposition is even tactically waiting for the best time to make a stand - which might well be when the country is most exposed. See for example how the Yemeni Houti rebels tried to hit a Formula E event in Saudi Arabia with missiles. The wo…

The world could easily pressure Qatar into abolishing this, but it does not do so. We're speaking of countries that were willing to wage costly wars on flimsy evidence of w.m.d.'s, that are now not willing to pressure a nation over real evidence of slavery.

One of those countries refuses to enact a reasonable minimum wage to this day. That one in particular has no issue whatsoever with treating labor poorly.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#116

Post by leoedin » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 1:22 PM UTC

Aromasin wrote: post #104

HenryBemis wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The upside is that you modernise your city. In this case, they would have receive X thousand/million of tourists, which they won't come. If you travel to Japan (e.g. from Europe) you don't just go for the events. You also say an extra 5-10 days. That is a big loss for the tourist industry, the millions of mouths eating in restaurants, drinking in bars, and on top of the costs/profits, imagien that the state takes a 5…

This was a massive benefit that came from the UK Olympics. Almost every facility that was used throughout the games continues to be used to this day. "When the Park opens fully in spring 2014, it will provide a world-class hub for performance and community sport, offering a range of 25 indoor and outdoor activities every day, all year round. The iconic Aquatics Centre will offer two 50-metre pools and a diving pool,…

From a logical point of view, we could have spent that money on those venues without the Olympics. There was nothing stopping us spending £6.5bn on transport, or building flats in Stratford, or building a velodrome, without the Olympics. In fact, you could argue it would be more cost effective - many of the Olympic venues aren't wholly suited to other uses (eg the stadium isn't the stadium a football team would build).

The only real argument for the Olympics from a legacy point of view is that it provides a fixed deadline and a potential for very public failure if you don't deliver - which probably stopped a lot of the graft and politicising that would normally accompany infrastructure investments of this size.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#117

Post by neogodless » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 1:23 PM UTC

h0nd wrote: post #60

CaptainZapp wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the alternative, really? Essentially letting billions of $ of infrastructure go to complete waste? That said, I agree with you. Then again the host city always pulls the shit end of the stick when organizing such an event.

Maybe it would be an option to NOT treat every foreigner as a possible threat, but as a welcomed guest to visit Japan and the Olympic games. edit: I am surprised to see YC attracting people supporting discrimination.

https://www.cs.virginia.edu/~lat7h/blog/posts/213.html

> The connotation of discern is one of perceptive recognition of non-obvious underlying truth; the connotation of discriminate (since the 1860s) is quite the opposite, being more of an unjust imposition of difference where none is deserved.

(emphasis mine)

The key here is that discrimination is imposing different treatment of people "where none is deserved." When a pandemic is happening, you're not imposing "different" (and unjust) treatment upon foreign visitors - you're imposing necessary treatment as a precaution to help reduce the spread of the virus. This is a good thing that we want to do, not an unjust thing.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#118

Post by nradov » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 1:30 PM UTC

Pyramus wrote: post #51

nradov wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Case rates can't be usefully compared between countries because they all have different testing practices. Being obese actually does make you more likely to catch the virus. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7430889/

The study you linked shows that obesity is linked with more severe outcomes, not higher infection rates. I know at least one study that shows infection rates did not change with co-morbidities, see Fig 6b in https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19509-y However I would not be surprised to see slightly higher infection rates mediated by healthier immune systems in healthier folks.

Did you read the article?

"... indicating that SARS-CoV-2 is more likely to enter the human body in obese people as compared with non-obese people."

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#119

Post by speeder » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 1:33 PM UTC

toyg wrote: post #59

marakv2 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We arnt looking forward to it. We never really wanted it. Edit: sorry that's a bit generic, but I have never heard anyone say they are looking forward to the Olympics locally, pre covid, and post, I hear a lot of people wtf'ing it's going ahead. It's completely anecdotal, but as a private teacher at 4 different schools I have a wide pool.

I think this is now the standard reaction of first-worlders whenever something like this is planned for their city. Everybody knows the costs are massive (and often being siphoned off by corrupt people) and the upsides very few; most people are unlikely to attend the events (they are typically very expensive); and the pain of construction will add misery to their everyday life for years in advance. The press typicall…

I am Brazillian and we had that reaction too.

The World Cup was more popular, but still wasn't widely accepted as some people think it would be.

The Olympics was outright hated, so many stupid shenanigans happened there (like demolishing a NEW stadium, to build another identical one, just because the seatings positions were slightly bad).

So no, you don't need to be first world to recognize how stupid hosting the Olympics is.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#120

Post by account42 » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 1:34 PM UTC

Auracle wrote: post #33

someperson wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan (and Vietnam) both have high densities in their cities, but low COVID numbers.. So there's definitely countries that have handled it better than Japan.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all of the countries that are doing the best (that aren’t isolated islands) are in the same geographic region that the virus came from. Whether it’s some sort of evolved protection from a similar virus in the past or similar viruses being common in the present, there’s definitely a reason.

> Whether it’s some sort of evolved protection from a similar virus in the past or similar viruses being common in the present, there’s definitely a reason.

The virus you are looking fo is SARS - but I would guess it is more the government response rather than the individual immune response that has learned for it.