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Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

japantoday.com

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Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#81

Post by DocTomoe »

reedf1 wrote: post #69
HeavenFox wrote: post #18

This seems like the worst outcome for Japan and best outcome for the IOC. Japan incurs all the cost of hosting the Olympics while reaping none of the tourist yen, while the IOC gets paid the broadcasting fee. At this point the optimal outcome for Japan is probably to cancel the game altogether. Is it an example of the political pull of the IOC? The Asian culture of face-saving? Or plain old sunk cost fallacy? I hones…

I visited Japan a few months before the pandemic hit and it is really sad thinking back now. There was a real effort from the airport in Tokyo to as far away as Osaka and Kyoto accommodating for foreign languages and really showing off Japanese culture. At the time it felt like I was being practised on - so sad to see all that effort go to waste.

That also was related to the general idea that the Tokyo Olympics were meant as a Japan Rebirth after Fukushima, much like the 1964 Olympics were considered a Rebirth of a modern Japan after WW2.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#82

Post by DevX101 »

zpeti wrote: post #66
book-sandworm wrote: post #46

This is such a painful situation for Japan. When I visited a couple a years ago the preparations were still going full force. They were so proud and looking forward to hosting it. Really think they are between a rock and a hard place with any decision. This together with all the sub-human conditions the workers in Qatar for the football world championship make it seem like organising events like this not something I…

Are their any actual legit studies that have shown if hosting an olympics is worth it for the overall economy or not? For example I think the olympics put Barcelona on the map for a lot of tourists and they’ve been reaping the rewards since, but it seems to me that’s more of an exception than the rule.

Hosting the Olympics costs somewhere between US$15-20 billion.

If the goal is really to put a city 'on the map' you could spend less than 5% of that money on an extensive cultural/tourism marketing campaign and have more of an effect. I've yet to meet anyone who's chosen Sochi as a vacation destination.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#83

Post by DocTomoe »

hrktb wrote: post #58
jelling wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps it gives the population something to look forward to.

People have been memeing "Stop it! Stop it" [0] for a while now. To take with a shovel of salt of course, but that feeling of just getting shafted by the corrupt politicians and the IOC, and just not wanting more money to go into the pit is echoed by the people in my small sphere. [0] https://www.cnnphilippines.com/sports/2020/3/4/tokyo-2020-ol...

I doubt you will find any Olympic Games in the last 40 sears that did not attract people being opposed to them. In the end, it binds resources some thing may be used more efficiently elsewhere, as if the money is gone after spending it.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#84

Post by greggman3 »

timr wrote: post #15
steelframe wrote: post #12

> it peaked at more than 2,500 cases per day in Tokyo That's 0.027% of the population of Tokyo per day in a city that has over 6,000 people packed in per square kilometer. By comparison, Idaho has a population density of 7.64 people per square kilometer, and right now the infection rate there is 0.021% of its population per day. That's only a 30% difference in percentage of population infected per day, but there are…

> Whatever Tokyo is doing to keep COVID under control with such a crazy high population density, it looks like we've got an entire state over here in the U.S. that could still learn some of the basics. I lived in Japan, have many friends there whom I keep in touch with, and watch the local news regularly. The restrictions in the major cities have been substantially fewer than we've had here in the US. There have been…

> Nearly all have remained open

Most places have followed the suggestions. For the last 2 months nearly every bar and restaurant has closed by 8pm. While being open at all might seem like a problem subtracting 2 to 8 hrs off opening time, especially 2hrs of the busiest times in Japan at least, reduces the number of people exposed reducing the R number.

I live in Shibuya (one of the more busy places in Tokyo). I can walk out there right now (8:06pm) and show you that 95% or more of restaurants are closed. Even the ramen places (usually open til 5-6am) and places like Yoshinoya, Matsuya, etc (usually 24hrs) are closed.

OTOH if I go walk down at 7:30pm (before they close) lots of places will be fairly full (60-100%) and of course most people have their masks off to eat and drink. Lots of places do have extra dividers between tables and/or between the kitchen area and everything else.

As for fewer people using transit, that is not clear to me. You can look at the ridership numbers for the various train lines and compare them to before COVID. The numbers are at 80-90% ridership, at least during commute. Of course even 10% less ridership would lower R but rush hour is insane in Tokyo so I'm surprised the crowded rush out trains have not been a huge vector for spreading.

All of this suggests something about Japan is different. It could be mask compliance. It's probably 98-99%. (where as for white foreigners I'd say it's around 75%). It could be that the changes are just enough to keep R low. I could be genetics (Japan is fairly homogenous)? It could relative health level? It could be cleanliness?

update: took that walk. My guess is at least 80% of restaurants and bars were closed. I feel like if I'd counted places on the 2nd/3rd/4th/5th floors it would be higher. When the video zoom in on some sign it's to show the "20" for 20 o clock (ie, closes at 8pm). The video is 8:30 to 9pm, tonight, March 10th, 2021

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d-gYk1unHU

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#85

Post by raindropm »

h0nd wrote: post #60
CaptainZapp wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the alternative, really? Essentially letting billions of $ of infrastructure go to complete waste? That said, I agree with you. Then again the host city always pulls the shit end of the stick when organizing such an event.

Maybe it would be an option to NOT treat every foreigner as a possible threat, but as a welcomed guest to visit Japan and the Olympic games. edit: I am surprised to see YC attracting people supporting discrimination.

Um, can't we give those narrative a break even in the time of peril like this? It's just so out of context. It's global Pandemic dude! Controlling the risk from outsiders is the protocol in EVERY COUNTRY right now.

They host the Olympic, they seriously WANT everyone from every country to be in their country! and it's just can't happened right now.

If the situation is normal, and they refuse to let foreigner in, then we'll talk.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#86

Post by Ceezy »

DevX101 wrote: post #82
zpeti wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are their any actual legit studies that have shown if hosting an olympics is worth it for the overall economy or not? For example I think the olympics put Barcelona on the map for a lot of tourists and they’ve been reaping the rewards since, but it seems to me that’s more of an exception than the rule.

Hosting the Olympics costs somewhere between US$15-20 billion. If the goal is really to put a city 'on the map' you could spend less than 5% of that money on an extensive cultural/tourism marketing campaign and have more of an effect. I've yet to meet anyone who's chosen Sochi as a vacation destination.

They just need an other Olympic Game to remind people...

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#87

Post by h0nd »

SonicTheSith wrote: post #76
h0nd wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe it would be an option to NOT treat every foreigner as a possible threat, but as a welcomed guest to visit Japan and the Olympic games. edit: I am surprised to see YC attracting people supporting discrimination.

You are aware that we have a global pandemic right? So if even you won't treat everyone as a possible threat, the chance that 'guests' bring in the virus is high. Since Japan is an island, most people will fly there by plane and most people will be inside the plane for at least 6 hours+. Even if at half capacity the chance that there is 1 infectious person/ person becoming infectious is high. All Tests are snapshots…

Thank you, I feel this needs some explanation.

>You are aware that we have a global pandemic right?

It would be a very difficult task to avoid noticing.

>So if even you won't treat everyone as a possible threat, the chance that 'guests' bring in the virus is high. Since Japan is an island, most people will fly there by plane and most people will be inside the plane for at least 6 hours+. Even if at half capacity the chance that there is 1 infectious person/ person becoming infectious is high.

The virus is there already, since quite a while.

>All Tests are snapshots of whether or not your infectious at time X.

What kind of tests are available that can show if you're infectuous? That would be really helpful to tackle the situation. So far, I just know about tests that can detect the presence of the virus or antibodies.

>Quick tests are only valid for 6 hours since they only check whether you are infectious.

What quick tests are you referring to that are able to detect if you are infectious? Again, that would be extremely helpful information and I would be really surprised if this existed but not be used. The quick tests we (my country) have and use, 'just' gives you the information if the virus is present.

>PCR Tests are more accurate but take some time to get the results. Thus there is a chance to get infected afterwards and before the flight.

They are accurate in terms of detecting smallest leftovers of the virus, but not in detecting if someone is infectious.

>Furthermore, to protect your own country from a new outbreak is it really a wise decision to add another thousands of people into an already overcrowded city?

I fail to understand how a 'foreigner' is a bigger threat (in terms of 'protection from a new outbreak') than the locals already carrying the virus and being responsible for all the recent cases (there is a staggering 22% positivity rate in Tokyo today - without these 'dangerous' foreigners).

But more importantly, and referring to my statement:

Is discrimination okay, if there are 'reasons' for it? Is discrimination okay, if a majority agrees with it?

Or more generally, when is discrimination okay?

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#88

Post by dagw »

zpeti wrote: post #66
book-sandworm wrote: post #46

This is such a painful situation for Japan. When I visited a couple a years ago the preparations were still going full force. They were so proud and looking forward to hosting it. Really think they are between a rock and a hard place with any decision. This together with all the sub-human conditions the workers in Qatar for the football world championship make it seem like organising events like this not something I…

Are their any actual legit studies that have shown if hosting an olympics is worth it for the overall economy or not? For example I think the olympics put Barcelona on the map for a lot of tourists and they’ve been reaping the rewards since, but it seems to me that’s more of an exception than the rule.

Are their any actual legit studies that have shown if hosting an olympics is worth it for the overall economy or not?

Lots, probably hundreds. Most of them conclude 'it depends, but basically not worth it'. But the gist is that if you are already a functioning city and popular tourist spot (like London) you'll get close to zero benefit (at massive costs). London actually significantly had less total tourists the year of the Olympics compared with the preceding and following years.

Some cities, like Barcelona, Seoul and possibly Rio de Janeiro saw some benefit in terms of raising awareness of the city as tourist destination and better infrastructure for handling tourism. Both led to increased tourism the years following the Olympics. Barcelona and Seoul where also however cheaper events than current Olympics so it is hard to compare.

Also only the Summer Olympics has shown any sign of positive benefits on tourism. Winter Olympics has basically no effect.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#89

Post by rpadovani »

zpeti wrote: post #66
book-sandworm wrote: post #46

This is such a painful situation for Japan. When I visited a couple a years ago the preparations were still going full force. They were so proud and looking forward to hosting it. Really think they are between a rock and a hard place with any decision. This together with all the sub-human conditions the workers in Qatar for the football world championship make it seem like organising events like this not something I…

Are their any actual legit studies that have shown if hosting an olympics is worth it for the overall economy or not? For example I think the olympics put Barcelona on the map for a lot of tourists and they’ve been reaping the rewards since, but it seems to me that’s more of an exception than the rule.

I know only about this study about the costs, without any consideration about if they are worth it or not: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2804554

Living in Munich I have to say that the amazing park and infrastructures (widely used nowadays and close to the city center) left after the tragic 1972 Olympics are definitely worthy of the $1B spent over infrastructure

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#90

Post by strogonoff »

kijin wrote: post #79
strogonoff wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I see an...well, let's just call it interesting...number of Japanese people socializing in small restaurants, bars, etc. without wearing masks. Same in Seoul. When discussing this matter with friends located elsewhere, they seem to have difficulty believing this, but every cafe and restaurant will have 90%+ of visitors talking without masks after they finish eating until the time they leave. (Those sitting alone qu…

Stranger danger. If you're having lunch with someone, you probably know them well and trust them to have a sense of hygiene. Some random person who sneezes on Line 9 during the morning rush, not so much. Or at least that's how people's minds appear to work. This behavior seems to be sustainable only because the background rate of infection is so low. It really is vanishingly unlikely for anyone you come across in a c…

Good point and new case distribution rings true based on what I heard.

My exasperation mostly comes down to nonsensical norms/regulations where a person safely not wearing a mask outdoors to get fresh air has to fear being judged (or having police called on, I suppose) by the very people who semi-daily engage in active airborne fluid exchange with random strangers sharing the same cafe as their group of friends or coworkers. If I had a say in this, either the former has to be recognized as socially acceptable (2m distance and so on, of course), or the latter has to stop being tolerated. It almost physically pains me to see people getting outside to enjoy a clear day with great AQI, and everyone must be either wearing a mask or smoking.

Oh, and the measure with the parks seems absolutely ridiculous. Never been one to hang out in a park, but seeing groups of friends virtually being ushered by signs from outdoors into a cafe to talk is bizarre.

Good for the country on the testing effort and having things more or less under control, though.

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