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Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

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Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the correction, however > The United States does not support Taiwan independence. That speaks volumes on US' instance. I lived long enough to see that Taiwan is mere a pawn to attack China. If dropping a nuclear bomb on Taiwan could set back China, US will do it in a heartbeat. This is how the world politics works. Always have been.

Well the US also doesn't support Chinese intervention in Taiwanese affairs and treats Taiwan as a country in all but name which also speaks volumes. The US clearly considers Taiwan as independent and has been okay pretending otherwise as long as it's been politically convenient and China doesn't take any action to end that independence.

Well if US doesn't want China to intervene US could just let Taiwan have their nuclear weapon in the 80s, which will completely remove Military option from China, but US didn't.[1]

--

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang_Hsien-yi

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#162
post #14

I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that t…

It's awesome because you are a westerner.

> It's awesome because you are a westerner.

Are you really sure only westerners are having an awesome time in Taiwan? Have a look at the data for who travels most to Taiwan (and presumably enjoys it):

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Taiwan

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern weapons make a successful amphibious invasion much easier. If the invading party can assert total air superiority, then the only bottleneck left is actually crossing the sea, which is not that big of an issue as long as the distance is low. The waters of the strait are also shallow enough that submarines are not that effective. Basically, it is certainly possible to pull of such an amphibious assault, and the…

> If the invading party can assert total air superiority That is the hard part. Not only would you have to deal with US carrier based air assets, but also air assets from bases in Japan and South Korea. In addition, Aegis based cruisers also have a heavy anti-aircraft armament.

Establishing air superiority and creating a beachhead would be a matter of one day or two, at most. It would be impossible for a US carrier strike group to intervene by then. Same for Aegis.

As for Japan, it is much too far from Taiwan to contribute. South Korea will not get involved for obvious reasons.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#164
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A heavy piece of the rational for free trade is the notion that sovereignty does not matter, and the risk of a sudden trade restriction via nationalization, or interdiction is low. If the US has "lost" Asia as a partner, can it maintain its supply chain dependence?

> If the US has "lost" Asia as a partner, can it maintain its supply chain dependence? The US hasn't lost Asia as a partner and it's not going to in an absolute manner. The US is losing its hegemony over Asia, which it has had since WW2. Those are two very different things. Can the US keep Asia as a partner? Yes, mostly, through accepting that it will have to be less of a dominant hegemony in Asia and more of an at-t…

>The US can also simply increasingly accept its real context

This could also mean US food production capabilities.

There's an insane amount of agricultural (and other) land being purchased by China controlled interests, both in the US and worldwide. Reliance on domestic food production is obviously something they're very concerned about, especially with the history of agricultural disease outbreaks. I suspect the seizure of Chinese owned/controlled property under US jurisdiction (or areas of influence) would be a significant blow, with respect to that. (As archaic as starving the enemy might be- we're talking about war.)

As much as I hesitate to suggest a new govt database:

We need a system tracking all foreign ownership of US land. Including owned by companies with Chinese stakeholders.

An incredibly difficult task, given the majority of US land records are kept at the county level.

It might actually be easier to track it based on crop production, commodity trading, exports, or financial transactions, all of which all at least have some extant system for national data collection, but this is way over my head.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The US can't stop China from taking Taiwan. Can’t or won’t? Certainly the US do a lot of damage to the mainland if they chose to engage in a hot total war. A nuclear barrage of Chinese military facilities and supply lines would shut down an amphibious assault. I imagine that the US can still do tremendous damage with conventional bombing and ballistics as well, though not without cost. Both of these are basically MA…

> A nuclear barrage of Chinese military facilities Do you really want to entertain this ridiculous idea? A nuclear assault on Chinese soil, would invite a nuclear retaliation on American soil. Do you really want to lose Los Angeles or New York City, to a nuclear ICBM? And if it comes that, then both sides should just launch all their nukes, and see who is left afterwards to pick up the pieces. America is now a nuclea…

> America is now a nuclear wasteland. And all because some people couldn’t swallow their pride, and realize that Taiwan is not their core interest.

In you opinion, was fighting Nazi Germany irrational too?

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#166

The purpose here is to set a fire that the Biden administration has to deal with. That’s why it’s getting done on the way out the door and not when the President took office 4 years ago, or Pompeo was confirmed 2.5 years ago. It’s not likely to work; line staff will ignore this and wait to see what Blinken says. But now Republicans can try to portray a policy consistency as kowtowing to China.

Or perhaps it’s a response to the purge of pro-democracy politicians in Hong Kong this week?

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#167
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A heavy piece of the rational for free trade is the notion that sovereignty does not matter, and the risk of a sudden trade restriction via nationalization, or interdiction is low. If the US has "lost" Asia as a partner, can it maintain its supply chain dependence?

> If the US has "lost" Asia as a partner, can it maintain its supply chain dependence? The US hasn't lost Asia as a partner and it's not going to in an absolute manner. The US is losing its hegemony over Asia, which it has had since WW2. Those are two very different things. Can the US keep Asia as a partner? Yes, mostly, through accepting that it will have to be less of a dominant hegemony in Asia and more of an at-t…

>South Korea and Japan should acquire nuclear weapons

Ideally yes. Would love that. But almost never-never-never gonna happen.

Culturally, Japan does a much better job than most in teaching (and learning from) war history. Hiroshimaa and Nagasaki are still quite fresh in their minds. They're not Germany; Japan still identifies as, acknowledges being, and is deeply ashamed that they are the same nation/people that bombed Pearl Harbor and fought in WW2.

The power plant meltdowns also don't help, but is probably less culturally entrenched.

Only chance of changing that is maybe one-day for parity with N Korean capabilities, or an imminent major war with China.

It'd be... historically & culturally interesting, if Japan accepted US nukes or technology as assistance in a wartime emergency. Could potentially create one hell of a bond between allies, if played right. Or a whole lot of hate, if Japan's public opinion isn't won over first.

As for South Korea, and in the context of North Korea:

As long as N Korea is N Korea, I don't know if we want to just drop nukes into the equation, as is, unless we're talking about US-controlled weapons-sharing. With the downside of being a less effective threat due to direct US involvement, and culpability.

What would be ideal is:

Somehow make Korean reunification happen, under a democratic government that inherits NK's nuke program. And then advances it with US blessings and/or assistance (either openly or modeled on something like the Israeli program).

Japan won't like it, but it also might be enough to encourge them to overcome their aversion, Hiroshima/Nagasaki be damned.

It would require overcoming a constitutional ban, so not easy. But they make an increasing number of exceptions for weapons constitutionally limited to "defensive capabilities," which somehow now includes two aircraft carriers with F-35Bs.

And which China already hates.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#168
post #91
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. I think if China wanted to go all out, it could take Taiwan via massive force but it would be extremely costly for them and I don’t think the calculus of risk vs benefit adds up for them politically or practically. They certainly can maybe sink an American carrier, maybe, if their missiles are as good as they say, but that’s a big If.

In WW2 the attack on Pearl Harbor was a surprise ending to the dominance of the battleship, marking the first time that a power attempted to attack Battleship's by air. While this had been theorized for a few decades, all of the great powers continued to invest in battleships. No power has attempted to sink a carrier since 1945, there is ultimately limited data on how effective any anti-carrier weapon developed in th…

The Battle of Taranto preceded Pearl Harbor and was a direct inspiration for it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Taranto

Italian battleships were targeted & 3 were disabled.

Also the British tried to sink the Argentinian aircraft carrier during the Falkland War and it escaped preatty much just due to luck.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the US also doesn't support Chinese intervention in Taiwanese affairs and treats Taiwan as a country in all but name which also speaks volumes. The US clearly considers Taiwan as independent and has been okay pretending otherwise as long as it's been politically convenient and China doesn't take any action to end that independence.

Well if US doesn't want China to intervene US could just let Taiwan have their nuclear weapon in the 80s, which will completely remove Military option from China, but US didn't.[1] -- [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang_Hsien-yi

I’m a staunch Taiwan advocate. But sticking nukes all over the place removes our ability to slow proliferation. And sticking nukes in others’ backyards is, well, impolite.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#170
post #14

I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that t…

It is never about Taiwan. This move itself is to attack China. Everything to do with Taiwan is not about Taiwan, 1972 and 2021.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan

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