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Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

state.gov

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Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#11

Post by dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp »

bigpumpkin wrote: post #4

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

>>Pompeo on Twitter said he met with Blinken “to facilitate an orderly transition, and to ensure American interests are protected abroad.” It was unclear if the meeting, which comes less than two weeks before Biden’s inauguration, was in person or virtual.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-pompeo/pompeo-m...

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#12

Post by jonathannat »

This is a great reset of the US and Taiwan relationship that will allow new rules to get added by the State Department. Best case scenario is that the two democracies grow even closer together and Taiwan finally gets a US embassy or even a military base. Worst case scenario is Biden goes back to the old behavior of placating China.

In any case, this is great timing, as China suffers from internal turmoils in Hong Kong, Beijing (leadership conflicts), Xinjiang and Tibet. And currently is engaging in a conflict with India, Australia, US, UK, Canada. Quad alliance (Japan, India, US, Australia) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/25/what-is-the-quad-c... has been pretty active, and Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (senior lawmakers in democracies) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/lawmakers... have recently formed this year.

Taiwan would be a great formal addition to these alliances, as it could act as a land carrier sitting off the coast of China. With its recent effort underway to build homegrown submarines by 2025, it could repel most of the sea threats from China for a long time https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/12/02/taiwan-is-b....

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#14

Post by __sy__ »

I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that the U.S. chooses to placate Beijing, at the risk of losing a reliable partner (Taiwan) in a strategic industry.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#15

Post by dirtyid »

bigpumpkin wrote: post #4

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

Just Pompeo spiking options for next admin. Taiwan has about 5-10 years of strategic space left due to semiconductor dominance. Think Pompeo hopes to setup enough friction points for hotwar in the 10-15 years, when enough semi divests from Taiwan and before Chinese military fully modernizes. 15-30 years and China will be in a position to take over Taiwan with relatively little US containment options.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#17

Post by nosmokewhereiam »

bigpumpkin wrote: post #4

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#18

Post by 737min »

jonathannat wrote: post #12

This is a great reset of the US and Taiwan relationship that will allow new rules to get added by the State Department. Best case scenario is that the two democracies grow even closer together and Taiwan finally gets a US embassy or even a military base. Worst case scenario is Biden goes back to the old behavior of placating China. In any case, this is great timing, as China suffers from internal turmoils in Hong Kon…

Good analysis

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#19

Post by rangibaby »

ilaksh wrote: post #10

My concern is that Taiwan is extraordinarily strategic and could be a linchpin. In the past, extreme economic situations have been "improved" by wars. Is there another, better plan? Does anyone on the Biden team or on planet earth have a plan for resolving the severe cultural and political divide between the US and China? Or is the divide not as great as it seems? What happens if they actually take Taiwan? Or try?

> What happens if they actually take Taiwan? Or try?

A serious military alliance of countries in that don’t want to be dominated by China (again) but have been happy to take Chinese money until now.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#20

Post by dirtyid »

ilaksh wrote: post #10

My concern is that Taiwan is extraordinarily strategic and could be a linchpin. In the past, extreme economic situations have been "improved" by wars. Is there another, better plan? Does anyone on the Biden team or on planet earth have a plan for resolving the severe cultural and political divide between the US and China? Or is the divide not as great as it seems? What happens if they actually take Taiwan? Or try?

There isn't, fact is US can contain China without Taiwan / first island chain for the foreseeable future. China can trivially take Taiwan anytime but not break through US containment until military modernization is complete. Taiwan semi advancements will only serve as security guarantor for so long. Realistically, China will take Taiwan as soon as she is able to mitigate US containment. And US needs war to contain China long term and Pompeo is setting up the conditions for one. Wait until his presidential run.
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