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Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

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Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#141

Post by Jasonnor »

coryrc wrote: post #96
Rapzid wrote: post #39

It's been time for a long time to stop pretending Taiwan is not a critical ally of the USA and that we would ever allow the CCP to absorb them. They deserve our recognition and support on the international stage.

We're only pretending. Saving face is critical when negotiating in the East. If we can let the mainland save face and it costs us little of importance, why act otherwise? Also, Taiwan itself is not unified. Around a third want to unify with the CCP.

> Around a third want to unify with the CCP.

I am from Taiwan. Where does the data for your sentence come from? As far as I know, the proportion of people who want to be unified with CCP is only 2.4%.

Reference: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7804&id=6960

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#142

Post by blackrock »

trynumber9 wrote: post #138
blackrock wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way Would you say the same thing for the Hawaiians? A lot of them want independence from the colonial United States. They want their nation and its territory back. So, using your logic, would you grant them their wish? I think not.

If Hawaiians elect a state government with that goal, and then pass a referendum with high turn out I'd be open to considering it. But it's a false equivalency anyway given that: 1. No such efforts are underway. 2. Taiwan is not presently part of the PRC. 3. Taiwan merely seeks de jure recognition of its de facto independence.

Didn’t the Southern States do exactly this? And formed the Confederate States of America. Where did that end up?

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#143

Post by jonathannat »

mattnewton wrote: post #67
jonathannat wrote: post #12

This is a great reset of the US and Taiwan relationship that will allow new rules to get added by the State Department. Best case scenario is that the two democracies grow even closer together and Taiwan finally gets a US embassy or even a military base. Worst case scenario is Biden goes back to the old behavior of placating China. In any case, this is great timing, as China suffers from internal turmoils in Hong Kon…

I’m with you until the last paragraph, which strikes me as fighting yesterday’s wars. “Hot” war with China, a major nuclear power, would be disastrous for the earth if it looked anything like controlling naval waters. I think they are far more important economically as a major technological partner than a military base.

China is the one that keeps barking and talking about taking over Taiwan.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#144

Post by trynumber9 »

blackrock wrote: post #142
trynumber9 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Hawaiians elect a state government with that goal, and then pass a referendum with high turn out I'd be open to considering it. But it's a false equivalency anyway given that: 1. No such efforts are underway. 2. Taiwan is not presently part of the PRC. 3. Taiwan merely seeks de jure recognition of its de facto independence.

Didn’t the Southern States do exactly this? And formed the Confederate States of America. Where did that end up?

They had a civil rights issue (slavery) the remainder of the states could not ignore.

It is another false equivalency as the PRC has never ruled over Taiwan. And the CSA did not enfranchise their populace fairly. Any such referendum was not an expression of the will of the people but merely the slave holding classes.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#145

Post by guram11 »

verroq wrote: post #100
baby wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t 3) already done? I thought this link implied 1 & 2, if not this is disappointing :(

Taiwan (Republic of China) maintains a claim to territory currently occupied by the CCP (People’s republic of China). And vice versa for the CCP.

just for additional context the Taiwan people have no dreams of occupying China by force or any means, other than the dissolution of CCP on its own but even then most Taiwanese wanted to stay as economically independent as possible, since they can fare off better on their own as evident in this current pandemic, restraining ties with China is a good measure

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#146

Post by strogonoff »

nsajko wrote: post #131
strogonoff wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan doesn’t want to secede, rather their claim is that China is unlawfully occupied.

That was the ROC government's position at one point (I think it isn't anymore since 1991), but the situation with the popular opinions is considerably more complicated. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan#Pos...

Fair point, I stand corrected.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#147

Post by throw384742 »

dirtyid wrote: post #90
someperson wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to believe it was only a matter of time until China is militarily able to take Taiwan. But it's not true: amphibious landings are notoriously difficult. Taiwan only has a few, easily defended beaches that can host an a landing. The rest of the coastline is jagged and rocky, and the Taiwan Strait hosts many typhoons and bad weather. For what it's worth, even the US would struggle to invade Taiwan militarily.

I respond below why invasion is not necessary, reunification through whatever means is preferable, but ultimately Chinese goals is for Taiwan not to be a strategic liability, and for that they can glass Taiwan into Yemen indefinitely without landing a single boot on the ground if US/Taiwan relation ever threatens Chinese security. US goal is to contain China, that's extremely difficult medium/long term without war, e…

Intermarriage between Mainland Chinese and Taiwanese is extremely high.

Among my Taiwanese friends, almost a third are married to Mainlanders (and even more have dated).

Even if this doesn't lead to reunification, at the very least it'll maintain the status quo.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#148

Post by snowwrestler »

The purpose here is to set a fire that the Biden administration has to deal with. That’s why it’s getting done on the way out the door and not when the President took office 4 years ago, or Pompeo was confirmed 2.5 years ago.

It’s not likely to work; line staff will ignore this and wait to see what Blinken says. But now Republicans can try to portray a policy consistency as kowtowing to China.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#149

Post by beerandt »

dirtyid wrote: post #132
beerandt wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I'm scared of Chinese military strategy, especially social engineering and psyops, but I still see enough sloppy military execution that I remain confident in overall US superiority. Look at how much trouble they've had building and attempting to operate an aircraft carrier. I think they finally figured out how to manufacture bearings for ballpoint pens in the last couple years. For both of these things, it's b…

IMO The ballpoint anecdote has been severely misinterpreted by western media. The narrative seems to be lol China only learned to make ball point pen recently, when really it was Premier LiKeQiang politicized importance of precision manufacturing for national security, and 2 years later Chinese industry developed tungsten carbide manufacturing capabilities for advanced munitions. There was no economically sensible re…

1) >As far as I'm aware, there is no credible research to demonstrate Chinese conducts large influence operations

I didn't mean to imply that they currently do. (Or don't. Idk.) Just that it's an area of major concern, where we'll be vulnerable as a country and lack parity.

But as you say, interesting possibilities.

2) >IMO The ballpoint anecdote has been severely misinterpreted...

I'm aware, but it's still a very relevant case-study. I'm not making fun of them- Manufacturing is hard.

You're correct, in that it was a lack of high precision, high quality manufacturing, and yes, they are catching up quickly...

But there's still a gap (for now) in this area, especially when 1) there is institutional knowledge required to make something correctly, and 2) said knowledge is non-public, a trade-secret, or similarly-restricted, and 3) no one has opened a factory to willingly transfer such knowledge to Chinese factory workers.

I believe one example is in industrial tooling, but I don't know if that's still true.

More abstractly:

When so much industrial knowledge in a country has come from external sources... Find out what they haven't had to learn on their own.

What capabilities will be missing or disadvantaged within their war-machine? Exploit them.

-Obviously China has its own ability to research and invent things (on its own), and I'm not implying that can't. But we're taking about competitive advantage and looking for weaknesses here.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#150

Post by seanmcdirmid »

verroq wrote: post #100
baby wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t 3) already done? I thought this link implied 1 & 2, if not this is disappointing :(

Taiwan (Republic of China) maintains a claim to territory currently occupied by the CCP (People’s republic of China). And vice versa for the CCP.

You mean the KMT that set up after they were kicked out of the mainland and took Taiwan right? They also claim all of (outer) Mongolia and basically whatever the Qing dynasty had when it fell. There CPC doesn’t claim Outer Mongolia and its borders are mostly settled with a few conflicts in India and the SCS.
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