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Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

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Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every place has the right to self determination, but secessionists tend to be treated as criminals. When the Southern states left the union, the world's oldest democracy went to war to prevent it. So it's a bit hypocritical of the US govt imo.

Taiwan doesn’t want to secede, rather their claim is that China is unlawfully occupied.

That was the ROC government's position at one point (I think it isn't anymore since 1991), but the situation with the popular opinions is considerably more complicated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan#Pos...

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US placates Beijing to try to delay or avoid Beijing just going ahead and invading and taking it by force (if China ultimately believes there is no other path). The US can't stop China from taking Taiwan. 20 or 30 years ago it would have been very difficult to stop that, today it's impossible. The US isn't even ready yet for that confrontation, it needs to deploy a massive number of ballistic missiles along the i…

Yeah, I'm scared of Chinese military strategy, especially social engineering and psyops, but I still see enough sloppy military execution that I remain confident in overall US superiority. Look at how much trouble they've had building and attempting to operate an aircraft carrier. I think they finally figured out how to manufacture bearings for ballpoint pens in the last couple years. For both of these things, it's b…

IMO The ballpoint anecdote has been severely misinterpreted by western media. The narrative seems to be lol China only learned to make ball point pen recently, when really it was Premier LiKeQiang politicized importance of precision manufacturing for national security, and 2 years later Chinese industry developed tungsten carbide manufacturing capabilities for advanced munitions. There was no economically sensible reason for domestic ballpoint manufacturing, the entire market dominated by Japan and Swiss was only worth 20M. Zero rationale for Chinese industry to coordinate tons of resources for this project outside of national security. The TLDR should be China is scarily efficient at pursuing national security goals.

Chinese military modernization is explicitly designed to counter US in Taiwan invasion scenario. They have no other security commitments, the goal is singular and funded by a budget that is equivalent to 87% of Pentagons by PPP. China doesn't have hundreds of bases, expensive pensions, legacy system to maintain. Last year alone they seem to have figured out most of the pressing turbojet issues as well as completed enough space infrastructure for full maritime surveillance persistence in SCS. These were the largest deficiencies western analysts had to doubt Chinese capabilities. Basically, any piece on Chinese military capabilities from 2+ years ago is out of date. That's how fast things are moving.

>social engineering and psyops

As far as I'm aware, there is no credible research to demonstrate Chinese conducts large influence operations in English abroad. It's mostly limited to mandarin targeting Chinese diaspora. That said, things will certainly be interesting if China actually decided to invest heavily in this capability. English fluency is still somewhat valuable resource in China, it's not being wasted to troll western net. But pool of English literacy is growing massively in recent years and there will be a surplus ready for weaponization.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US placates Beijing to try to delay or avoid Beijing just going ahead and invading and taking it by force (if China ultimately believes there is no other path). The US can't stop China from taking Taiwan. 20 or 30 years ago it would have been very difficult to stop that, today it's impossible. The US isn't even ready yet for that confrontation, it needs to deploy a massive number of ballistic missiles along the i…

Yeah, I'm scared of Chinese military strategy, especially social engineering and psyops, but I still see enough sloppy military execution that I remain confident in overall US superiority. Look at how much trouble they've had building and attempting to operate an aircraft carrier. I think they finally figured out how to manufacture bearings for ballpoint pens in the last couple years. For both of these things, it's b…

Self-reply: I realize some of that came off as political, but that wasn't my intention.

I am interested in what military tactics and strategy a hypothetical non-traditional war with China might look like. Especially if China decided to strike-first with an art-of-war, covert and/or subversive type attack on society/ culture (and not military).

I guess my overall point is:

I'm more concerned with lack of parity in the non-traditional and non-military cultural warfare possibilities that a conflict with China might present.

Not so-much with overall military capabilities, even as military-tech approaches parity.

And that the US will once again find itself "fighting it's previous war."

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#135

I didn't have "Taiwan" on my list of outgoing presidential pardons. Glad to see us moving towards normalization, but weird to wait until the last week of the administration to play that card.

The cynical read for “why wait until the last week” is to make China/US relations even more difficult for Biden. The Trump admin doesn’t have to deal with fallout.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#136
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Try to make Biden's admin life far more difficult. Pompeo has 2024 presidential dream.

Former SoS, Harvard Law School, top of West Point Grad, a deeply principled, extremely hard working man. We could and will be experiencing a lot worse the next 4 years.

And arguably the worst secretary of state.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/mike...

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#137
post #14

I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that t…

> Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way

Would you say the same thing for the Hawaiians?

A lot of them want independence from the colonial United States. They want their nation and its territory back.

So, using your logic, would you grant them their wish?

I think not.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#138
post #14

I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that t…

> Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way Would you say the same thing for the Hawaiians? A lot of them want independence from the colonial United States. They want their nation and its territory back. So, using your logic, would you grant them their wish? I think not.

If Hawaiians elect a state government with that goal, and then pass a referendum with high turn out I'd be open to considering it.

But it's a false equivalency anyway given that:

1. No such efforts are underway.

2. Taiwan is not presently part of the PRC.

3. Taiwan merely seeks de jure recognition of its de facto independence.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US placates Beijing to try to delay or avoid Beijing just going ahead and invading and taking it by force (if China ultimately believes there is no other path). The US can't stop China from taking Taiwan. 20 or 30 years ago it would have been very difficult to stop that, today it's impossible. The US isn't even ready yet for that confrontation, it needs to deploy a massive number of ballistic missiles along the i…

>The US can't stop China from taking Taiwan. Can’t or won’t? Certainly the US do a lot of damage to the mainland if they chose to engage in a hot total war. A nuclear barrage of Chinese military facilities and supply lines would shut down an amphibious assault. I imagine that the US can still do tremendous damage with conventional bombing and ballistics as well, though not without cost. Both of these are basically MA…

> A nuclear barrage of Chinese military facilities

Do you really want to entertain this ridiculous idea?

A nuclear assault on Chinese soil, would invite a nuclear retaliation on American soil.

Do you really want to lose Los Angeles or New York City, to a nuclear ICBM?

And if it comes that, then both sides should just launch all their nukes, and see who is left afterwards to pick up the pieces.

America is now a nuclear wasteland. And all because some people couldn’t swallow their pride, and realize that Taiwan is not their core interest.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#140
No American administration ever thought "let's placate Beijing because we are too scared of them getting angry". Every time the decision to compromise with Beijing was made based on a certain trade-off.

This is no different today. The US military and civilian experts believe that if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing will use its military to take control of Taiwan, regardless of the US involvement. US presidents do not want several million people to die for the cause of Taiwan independence. Of course, most presidents do not care much about Chinese or Taiwanese deaths, but they do care that this will hurt the US economy and business interests; and depending on how things play out, thousands of Americans may also die, which is bad for reelection.

In other words, the US administrations do not want Taiwan to declare independence. They do, however, like to use Taiwan as a pawn in their games with China, just like they would use an aircraft carrier near the Chinese coast. They also like to use Taiwan as a pawn in the internal US political wars, for example by creating difficulties for the opposite party before that party takes over the White House.

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