Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020 • Hacker News Board

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#241

Post by cptskippy » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 8:33 PM UTC

gamblor956 wrote: post #230

cptskippy wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Leafs and Bolts were sold out (or leased out) almost everywhere they were available before the Model 3 was released. That's not true, people were leasing Leafs for tax credits the dumping them as soon as the lease expired. There was a glut of off lease Leafs on the market as early as 2017. I picked up a 2015 Leaf with 15k miles on it for ~$14k off lease in 2017 before the Model 3 went into production. Nissan starte…

There was intense demand for the Leaf in California. The waiting list was a year long through 2016, and in LA at least there was still a waiting list well into 2017. However, Nissan only ever made a few thousand Leafs a year and only made them available in select markets. By comparison, the Model 3 went into production in 2017 and they built the 500,000th in March of 2020. BMW, VW, Toyota, and Ford have all launched…

> There was intense demand for the Leaf in California. The waiting list was a year long through 2016, and in LA at least there was still a waiting list well into 2017.

No there wasn't. Leaf sales dropped 43% from 2014 to 2015 and were even worse in 2016 for a number of reasons. The first was the Bolt was announced in early 2016 and the Model 3 in mid 2016 [1]. The second reason was the 2016 cost $5000 more than the 2015 because of a larger battery that only gave it 27% greater range (107 miles total)[1]. The third reason was that cosmetically it was unchanged from prior years [1]. The final reason was that there was an influx of cheap Leafs on the market[2].

The only waiting list in 2016 was for receiving your EV Rebate from the state[3].

The waiting list for the original Leaf was only 20,000 compared to the Model 3 which exceeded 300,000.

> BMW, VW, Toyota, and Ford have all launched new models in significantly greater numbers over shorter timeframes and with fewer employees than Tesla.

Ok? Incumbent car manufacturers who have been building cars for 50+ years can ramp up manufacturing of a new model ICE faster than a company that's just over a decade old that had to build an entirely new factory from the ground up. That should surprise no one.

So what about EVs? VW only managed to product around 30k of the ID.3 in 2020, it wants to build 300k in 2021. Ford's new Mach-E is limited to 50k units in 2021. Why? Both are due in large part to production constraints with the battery. The battery problem isn't going to go away and everyone, including Tesla is being throttled by it.

[1] https://www.autoblog.com/2016/02/05/facing-bolt-tesla-nissan... [2] https://www.autoblog.com/2016/02/16/cheap-used-nissan-leaf-e... [3] https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/energy-green/s...

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#242

Post by gambiting » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 8:38 PM UTC

MisterTea wrote: post #237

gambiting wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"if you can't turn the wheel by yourself you have no business in driving" /s It's just lane keeping. It helps immensely with focus on long trips.

I've driven from NYC to FL and back a few times (Once in a Uhaul truck) in addition to NYC Chicago. Never did I have trouble keeping lanes. If I did, it meant that I was tired or fatigued. As a responsible driver that means I pull off the road at a rest stop and rest. If you have trouble keeping lanes and are not fatigued then I suggest you put your fucking phone down or see a doctor. This new trend of passing respon…

The point is that you're not as fatigued with it. I've driven many many times between Amsterdam - Krakow(12 hour drive) and the last few times I've done it in a car that has active lane keeping. On those times I've arrived probably 50% as fatigued as in a car without it, without sacrificing any safety of the journey.

>>As a responsible driver that means I pull off the road at a rest stop and rest.

No one is saying otherwise. This technology doesn't allow you to drive further while tired. It stops you from becoming tired in the first place.

>>People need to grow up and accept responsibility.

And people need to grow up and see that some inventions are not as bad as they think they are ;-)

>>suggest you put your fucking phone down or see a doctor

I've flagged your comment because it isn't how conversations on HN should go like.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#243

Post by cptskippy » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 8:39 PM UTC

gamblor956 wrote: post #229

kjksf wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US sales of Nissan Leaf in 2016 was 14k. In 2019 it was 12k. If Nissan Leaf was sold out in U.S. it's only because Nissan decided not to make enough of them. Or they made exactly the very small amount that people were willing to buy. Bolt was even worse. They did 23k in 2017 and dropped to 16k in 2019. GM dealers were so desperate to get rid of them that at some point they offered up to $10k cash rebate. At that desp…

Like I said... The problem was that they never made enough of them because they didn't believe the market existed. Note that Tesla is also losing money on the Model 3 (and indeed, all models of Teslas) when using the same accounting practices as other automakers. Tesla only has high margins when using non-standard accounting.

Even if they made a million of the Leaf, there was never demand. Now that everyone is point that out to you, you're trying to pivot to saying that Tesla is losing money on their EVs.

Even if they are, so what? Tesla's stated goal was to shepherd in the mass adoption of EVs as quickly as possible. They only need to remain in business long enough for every major auto manufacturer to start selling EVs in mass quantities. Once that happens they can just vanish and they'll have won.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#244

Post by WanderPanda » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 8:52 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #138

vjuvvadi123 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This just sums up how tax payers subsidise EVs and some meme company takes the credit

As awful as Tesla is, all the other car manufacturing companies are far far worse. Even with massive government incentives, even with their massive war chests, even with their massive production capacity, even with their access to capital markets for big investments, even then , they didn't make the smart move and had to be shown the path by an annoying megalomaniac who gets way too much attention. So yes, I regret g…

"is denying my ability to live a car-free daily life"

Do they have police in place to watch if you own/use a car?

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#245

Post by Hypx » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 9:04 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #239

Hypx wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s the thing: Hydrogen is getting much cheaper as we speak. Cheap enough to become a real threat to companies not on board. It’s following the curve of PV solar right now and not some decades in the future. Besides, what do companies have to gain by waiting for the technology to be ready before investing? It’s weird how people here lament the lack of foresight in the car industry, and yet on this subject immediat…

Electrolyzers are expensive and capital intensive enough that we don't anticipate that green hydrogen will compete with natural-gas derived hydrogen on cost before 2030. By 2030 batteries will haven fallen dramatically in cost. It's not enough to show that electrolyzers are falling in cost, it also needs to be shown that they are falling faster than batteries, and will be able to catch up. That's the missing logical…

Except that electrolyzers have plunged in cost in way that's catching many people off guard. And 2030 is just 9 years from now. Even if what you say is true, disruption is still within a decade's time. If you wait until that event has already happened before you start investing, then it will be too late. So basically everyone has to start investing in fuel cells right away or risk being disrupted.

I don't think people fully grasp that hydrogen is made from water, and has a theoretical lowest possible cost of almost $0. A tank of hydrogen is just a dumb tank too, not a series of sophisticated battery cells. It's batteries that will have trouble keeping up on cost, not hydrogen. In fact, on a cost per range basis, the latest Mirai is already cheaper than competing battery electric cars. This suggests that the crossover point is nearly reached.

So we should stop thinking about batteries as if they have any kind of permanent lead here. The real missing logical link is ignoring the speed of hydrogen and fuel cell advancement, not the other way around.

What about the PR from big battery and electric car companies? These companies might too be dead within a decade or so. And yes, the hydrogen boosters very much say that fuel cell cars will be cheaper than battery powered cars. Toyota thinks fuel cell cars will be as cheap as the Corolla is today.

Some fuel cell cars use a capacitor instead. You only need 1-2 kWh for a passenger car for that purpose anyways. Probably anything past 100 miles will make more sense using fuel cells than batteries.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#246

Post by clouddrover » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 9:12 PM UTC

CydeWeys wrote: post #208

clouddrover wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I haven't even mentioned how Tesla is the only company that doesn't sponsor at least one (I think they all sponsor multiple) traditionally powered racing teams, whose development goes into premium powered, traditional gas powered automobiles. Not exclusively. Formula 1 and Le Mans use hybrid engines. Formula E and Extreme E are battery electric racing series. Why doesn't Tesla have a Formula E team?

Because motorsport is a giant unprofitable waste of money. The only value they get out of it is advertising their brand, and Tesla doesn't advertise. Why would Tesla spend the minimum tens of millions of dollars to get into what is at best a side diversion from their main business? They certainly have better uses for that capital and talent.

> Tesla doesn't advertise.

Of course they do. They advertised at you and it worked. It's worked so well that you're even parroting their marketing messages for them, including the myth that they don't advertise.

> Why would Tesla spend the minimum tens of millions of dollars to get into what is at best a side diversion from their main business?

Formula E doesn't cost tens of millions of dollars. Team budgets in Formula E are $10 million. And Tesla doesn't need to own a team. They can be a powertrain supplier just like other car companies are suppliers and not team owners.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#247

Post by UnpossibleJim » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 9:15 PM UTC

clouddrover wrote: post #198

UnpossibleJim wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you've hit on something that a lot of the detractors of Tesla have seemed to have forgotten. The alternatives are Ford, Chevy, Honda and Toyota. While I fully understand that Tesla is no titan of the little man and Musk is a very flawed man, compared to the titans of industry and the sins of the past that these companies are responsible for, it's a little odd that so much vitriol gets thrown toward Tesla and…

> I haven't even mentioned how Tesla is the only company that doesn't sponsor at least one (I think they all sponsor multiple) traditionally powered racing teams, whose development goes into premium powered, traditional gas powered automobiles. Not exclusively. Formula 1 and Le Mans use hybrid engines. Formula E and Extreme E are battery electric racing series. Why doesn't Tesla have a Formula E team?

All four also have off road racing teams (those were the only ones I was familiar with, sadly). I don't follow Formula 1 or Le Mans, I'm afraid.

As for Formula E, that's a great question. It seems like it should be right up their alley, but I'm almost positive AI is verboten and that would be a non starter for Tesla.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#248

Post by decafninja » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 9:16 PM UTC

clajiness wrote: post #159

albertgoeswoof wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla’s are great and all but American cars don’t exactly have a good reputation in Europe

American cars don't have a good reputation with a lot of Americans. They're generally cheap vehicles with poor build quality.

I would not lump Teslas with the rest of "American cars". Quite a few people that wouldn't touch a Ford/Chrysler/GM vehicle seem eager to give Tesla a chance.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#249

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 9:21 PM UTC

clouddrover wrote: post #246

CydeWeys wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because motorsport is a giant unprofitable waste of money. The only value they get out of it is advertising their brand, and Tesla doesn't advertise. Why would Tesla spend the minimum tens of millions of dollars to get into what is at best a side diversion from their main business? They certainly have better uses for that capital and talent.

> Tesla doesn't advertise. Of course they do. They advertised at you and it worked. It's worked so well that you're even parroting their marketing messages for them, including the myth that they don't advertise. > Why would Tesla spend the minimum tens of millions of dollars to get into what is at best a side diversion from their main business? Formula E doesn't cost tens of millions of dollars. Team budgets in Formu…

[deleted]

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#250

Post by HeadsUpHigh » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 9:26 PM UTC

clouddrover wrote: post #198

UnpossibleJim wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you've hit on something that a lot of the detractors of Tesla have seemed to have forgotten. The alternatives are Ford, Chevy, Honda and Toyota. While I fully understand that Tesla is no titan of the little man and Musk is a very flawed man, compared to the titans of industry and the sins of the past that these companies are responsible for, it's a little odd that so much vitriol gets thrown toward Tesla and…

> I haven't even mentioned how Tesla is the only company that doesn't sponsor at least one (I think they all sponsor multiple) traditionally powered racing teams, whose development goes into premium powered, traditional gas powered automobiles. Not exclusively. Formula 1 and Le Mans use hybrid engines. Formula E and Extreme E are battery electric racing series. Why doesn't Tesla have a Formula E team?

Because they are known for having fast EVs. Having a team and losing would be a hit on their reputation, but having a team and winning wouldn't change much. So they have a lot to lose and little to gain.