Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020 • Hacker News Board

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#231

Post by jokethrowaway » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 7:52 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #138

vjuvvadi123 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This just sums up how tax payers subsidise EVs and some meme company takes the credit

As awful as Tesla is, all the other car manufacturing companies are far far worse. Even with massive government incentives, even with their massive war chests, even with their massive production capacity, even with their access to capital markets for big investments, even then , they didn't make the smart move and had to be shown the path by an annoying megalomaniac who gets way too much attention. So yes, I regret g…

This is because large manufacturers and large governments don't like risks.

Crazy rich individuals do.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#232

Post by epistasis » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 7:58 PM UTC

Hypx wrote: post #224

throwaway-8c93 wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The automakers' behavior makes much more sense once you assume they did their homework, and came out with the same conclusion as everyone else: that the future of personal transport is in battery electric vehicles, and that future implies lower service revenue, slower upgrade cycle, fewer possibilities for brand differentiation, obsolescence of their patent portfolio and large layoffs. Based on that conclusion, they…

I would insist that the future is really fuel cell cars. Battery electric will be a short-term transitional class of vehicle. Most car companies need to plan for the real future pretty soon now.

I can't imagine any future where that seems remoter plausible. Hydrogen requires 2x as much energy according to anything we know right now. Unless the hydrogen capital expenses have a way of getting cheaper than lithium ion capital expense, then there's little chance of this ever happening.

So when you say "pretty soon now," you must mean 2040 at the earliest. There's certainly a chance, when you look at the progress of PV solar over the past 40 years, for example, but it is hugely speculative and a long term bet, not a short term one.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#233

Post by epistasis » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 8:00 PM UTC

throwaway-8c93 wrote: post #193

epistasis wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As awful as Tesla is, all the other car manufacturing companies are far far worse. Even with massive government incentives, even with their massive war chests, even with their massive production capacity, even with their access to capital markets for big investments, even then , they didn't make the smart move and had to be shown the path by an annoying megalomaniac who gets way too much attention. So yes, I regret g…

The automakers' behavior makes much more sense once you assume they did their homework, and came out with the same conclusion as everyone else: that the future of personal transport is in battery electric vehicles, and that future implies lower service revenue, slower upgrade cycle, fewer possibilities for brand differentiation, obsolescence of their patent portfolio and large layoffs. Based on that conclusion, they…

Sure, but that makes them far far worse world citizens than Tesla, a company that I have little love for.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#234

Post by CydeWeys » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 8:02 PM UTC

Hypx wrote: post #226

CydeWeys wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That strategy was only the best if you assumed someone like a Tesla wouldn't come along. However, a Tesla did come along, and as a result, Tesla now controls an ungodly fraction of the total worldwide automaker value. Basically, it was a bad strategy, as it was practically inevitable that at some point someone would "defect" and do BEVs. Not only did the automakers use a bad strategy, but they failed to pivot from th…

The problem is that Tesla is also another Kodak. Companies need to start investing in fuel cell technology or face another disruption. The future might be companies like Hyundai or Toyota, who are investing in "all-of-the-above" technologies rather than betting everything on one idea.

To put it charitably, it is not a widely held viewpoint that pressurized hydrogen tanks and fuel cells are a superior automotive technology to batteries.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#235

Post by Hypx » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 8:14 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #232

Hypx wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would insist that the future is really fuel cell cars. Battery electric will be a short-term transitional class of vehicle. Most car companies need to plan for the real future pretty soon now.

I can't imagine any future where that seems remoter plausible. Hydrogen requires 2x as much energy according to anything we know right now. Unless the hydrogen capital expenses have a way of getting cheaper than lithium ion capital expense, then there's little chance of this ever happening. So when you say "pretty soon now," you must mean 2040 at the earliest. There's certainly a chance, when you look at the progress…

That’s the thing: Hydrogen is getting much cheaper as we speak. Cheap enough to become a real threat to companies not on board. It’s following the curve of PV solar right now and not some decades in the future.

Besides, what do companies have to gain by waiting for the technology to be ready before investing? It’s weird how people here lament the lack of foresight in the car industry, and yet on this subject immediately reject any kind of forward planning.

Finally, most of the negative stuff you heard is probably marketing or propaganda from businesses that don’t want to see fuel cell succeed. “2x more energy” is a misleading claim, as fuel cells are technically batteries and should close the gap eventually. Plus, you save energy by avoiding heavy batteries, do better in cold weather, and need less raw materials during production.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#236

Post by conjecTech » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 8:16 PM UTC

INTPenis wrote: post #38

anthony_r wrote: post #6

BTW, as of late Tesla isn't at all the big leader over there: https://eu-evs.com/marketShare

I'm hearing more and more electric cars pass me in traffic and about half of them are not Teslas. (Sweden) I have no numbers to back this up, just observations of a cyclist commuter in Malmö. Edit: According to this absolutely awful website[1] it's up to 113,790 EVs in Sweden in 2020. And according to this[2] much better website jan-nov in 2020 saw 93k gasoline driven cars vs. 21k EVs. So we're not even close to Norw…

Looks like the market share for electric hit 50% in December for Sweden if you count Plug-in Hybrids[1]. So a bit more optimistic! Clean Technica does great reporting for these numbers.

[1] https://cleantechnica.com/2021/01/05/sweden-hits-record-50-e...

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#237

Post by MisterTea » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 8:16 PM UTC

gambiting wrote: post #197

mhh__ wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ABS and power steering are a totally different kettle-of-fish to the car actually steering itself.

"if you can't turn the wheel by yourself you have no business in driving" /s It's just lane keeping. It helps immensely with focus on long trips.

I've driven from NYC to FL and back a few times (Once in a Uhaul truck) in addition to NYC Chicago. Never did I have trouble keeping lanes. If I did, it meant that I was tired or fatigued. As a responsible driver that means I pull off the road at a rest stop and rest.

If you have trouble keeping lanes and are not fatigued then I suggest you put your fucking phone down or see a doctor. This new trend of passing responsibility to technology has got to stop. It's fueld by greed, built on human laziness and fostered by stupidity. People need to grow up and accept responsibility.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#238

Post by Hypx » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 8:17 PM UTC

CydeWeys wrote: post #234

Hypx wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that Tesla is also another Kodak. Companies need to start investing in fuel cell technology or face another disruption. The future might be companies like Hyundai or Toyota, who are investing in "all-of-the-above" technologies rather than betting everything on one idea.

To put it charitably, it is not a widely held viewpoint that pressurized hydrogen tanks and fuel cells are a superior automotive technology to batteries.

Which is why the disruptive risk is so high here. There’s already enough fuel cell cars out there that we know pressurized hydrogen tanks work safely. That so many people ignore or dismiss this fact is potentially leading many companies in the wrong direction.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#239

Post by epistasis » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 8:26 PM UTC

Hypx wrote: post #235

epistasis wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't imagine any future where that seems remoter plausible. Hydrogen requires 2x as much energy according to anything we know right now. Unless the hydrogen capital expenses have a way of getting cheaper than lithium ion capital expense, then there's little chance of this ever happening. So when you say "pretty soon now," you must mean 2040 at the earliest. There's certainly a chance, when you look at the progress…

That’s the thing: Hydrogen is getting much cheaper as we speak. Cheap enough to become a real threat to companies not on board. It’s following the curve of PV solar right now and not some decades in the future. Besides, what do companies have to gain by waiting for the technology to be ready before investing? It’s weird how people here lament the lack of foresight in the car industry, and yet on this subject immediat…

Electrolyzers are expensive and capital intensive enough that we don't anticipate that green hydrogen will compete with natural-gas derived hydrogen on cost before 2030.

By 2030 batteries will haven fallen dramatically in cost. It's not enough to show that electrolyzers are falling in cost, it also needs to be shown that they are falling faster than batteries, and will be able to catch up.

That's the missing logical link, and I haven't seen even the most optimistic hydrogen boosters produce numbers that show it to be possible. Definitely not before 2030.

There is a massive hydrogen PR push right now from natural gas companies with the hope that they can eek a few more years out before transitioning to the modern renewable economy. But even those folks don't say that fuel cell is going to be cheaper than typical passenger vehicle sized batteries.

Every single hydrogen powered vehicle is already going to have a battery in it, to manage variable output. The question is, if hydrogen machinery gets cheaper than battery, at what range capacity does it make sense to include both battery and hydrogen. If it's at 1000 miles, 500 miles, or 300 miles, or 100 miles, and that all depends on the cost ratio of the two, and hydrogen being significantly cheaper than battery.

Re: Electric cars make up 54% of cars sold in Norway in 2020

#240

Post by dschuler » Tue, Jan 05, 2021, 8:30 PM UTC

CydeWeys wrote: post #212

dschuler wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is no "zero carbon diesel". There is, it’s called biodiesel. It’s certainly possible to be net zero carbon with synthetic fuels.

And it's insanely expensive and thus not ever going to be remotely economically feasible. The only reason it might falsely appear to be so now is because it is heavily subsidized (way more heavily subsidized than EVs are).

Economic feasibility is a different question, but we can say the same thing about EVs in Norway - they're not currently economically feasible there without significant incentives. That doesn't mean technology can't catch up.