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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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211–220 of 642 posts

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#211

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

> What do you suppose happens when, for example, Saudi Arabia can no longer feed itself? It just peacefully and gently starves to death?

Won't somebody think of the poor Saudi family?!

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#212

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

Why would us HN readers (or perhaps you just meant is Americans?) need to have a plan for what happens to KSA if oil exports drop? They have their own plan for that, which is why they’ve invested so much into diversifying their economy.

Because we live on Earth. Saudi Arabia is a strategic ally in the Middle East. We need to have a plan for the future when the geopolitical landscape shifts and incentives change. Nobody exists in a vacuum, our interests are intertwined with everyone else's.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's sad to see people downvote correct information. For context, the US consumes ~12TWh of electricity daily, so 500 GWh per hour. Global lithium ion battery production is around 300 GWh per year. While it's true this is projected to rise exponentially, the amount dedicated to storage is minuscule compared to the scale required to fulfill even one hour of energy storage [1]. This has prompted people to propose more…

Nuclears not some secret unexplored concept at this point. If it were competitive it would be competing. Its costs are too high, not due to regulations due to the sheer amount of resources involved in mining, refining, and operating. Not to mention initial construction.

It's doing much better in terms of actually being used as a large portion of countries electricity generation, as I demonstrated above. But more importantly, the reality is that nuclear isn't competing against renewables it's competing against a fossil fuel grid that's supplemented by renewables. Germany, the poster child for renewables, still emits 10x the carbon dioxide per watt of electricity as France.

Let me put it more bluntly. Renewables are indeed cheaper on a per-watt hour basis. But that's more than offset by the need to deal with intermittency. Batteries are great for cars, but they exist at nowhere near the scale required to decarbonize with a wind and solar generation base. More exotic proposals like thermal storage, hydrogen, or the Sabatier process remain in prototyping and academic stage. The cost of storage is a non-answer, because there's no real plan to build this storage.

Renewables make in a stopgap mitigation plan but we have no feasible way of building a grid that's powered completely or even mostly by renewables. If our plan is to decarbonize the energy sector, renewables do not offer a solution. Hydroelectricity, and geothermal power do, but those are geographically limited. Nuclear energy is the only source that can feasibly replace fossil fuels as a consistent, geographically independence, and carbon-free energy source.

TL;DR:

* Industrialization happened because we figured out we could heat water and push a piston (and later, spin a turbine). Modern society is built off the ability to produce mechanical and electrical energy from thermal energy.

* It's a lot easier to heat water and spin a turbine with a carbon-free source of heat, than to try and capture energy from sun and wind and store massive amounts of energy to overcome intermittency.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#215

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

Well, not just countries but whole industries/sectors are going to collapse. It's not like we're going to retrain an oil driller to be software engineer.

Yes, the ecological benefits shine. But we need to prepare for the sociopolitical and socioeconomic fallout. Given how prepared we've (not) been for addressing climate change, it's difficult to imagine we'll be prepared for the unintended consequences of renewables. What leader or elected official is going to be that messenger?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#216
post #12

The article says the world relies on fossil fuel for energy because it's cheaper. That's true. It doesn't mention that the world relies on it because it's reliable. It doesn't disappear for 6 months of the year, or stop producing for 3 out of 5 days or during peak demand periods. Make renewables cheaper and more reliable and they will replace fossil fuels in a snap. Cheaper is not enough if it doesn't do the job.

Related question: what's the spot price for solar power at 1am? How cheap is it then?

Using lithium ion batteries, that solar would cost $81-$140/MWh, which is pretty much the same price as coal (compare the final slide to the first slide):

https://www.lazard.com/perspective/lcoe2020

But batteries get cheaper every year, so check back in 2021 for even cheaper prices. Most observers expect lithium ion storage to be cheaper than natural gas within a decade. And when you amortize the nighttime storage costs with the cheap daytime solar, natural gas is barely holding on in some markets. If we had a carbon tax that came close to internalizing the externalities, I don't think NG would be running for much longer.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#217
post #173
post #125

Personal anecdote - my house has two sets of solar panels on the roof - the first was installed in 2017, the second was just installed last month. In 2017 my 6kw system cost $24,000 before any incentives (by SolarCity). In 2020 my 7.8kw system cost $15,000 before any incentives (by Tesla). Of that $15k, $4.3k was for the panels themselves, $2k for the inverter, $1k for mounting hardware, and $8k for installation. It'…

I'll add some anecdata from Australia. My neighbour had a 5kW system put on, single-phase inverter, about three years ago - for ~ A$7000. I've just put a deposit down for installation of 12kW of panels with a 10kW three-phase inverter for A$7400 Same provider, though I haven't compared breakdown of costs (I'm assuming very similar installation / labour costs).

How do you find a provider? Feel like sharing who you used and some details?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#218
post #125

Personal anecdote - my house has two sets of solar panels on the roof - the first was installed in 2017, the second was just installed last month. In 2017 my 6kw system cost $24,000 before any incentives (by SolarCity). In 2020 my 7.8kw system cost $15,000 before any incentives (by Tesla). Of that $15k, $4.3k was for the panels themselves, $2k for the inverter, $1k for mounting hardware, and $8k for installation. It'…

From my perspective those costs are massive. I'm considering building a whole house from bricks which will cost $30-$40k. I probably won't spend $15k for electricity for all of my life. I don't understand western economy. You've got extremely costly electricity and you're claiming that solar power is good. It might be true for you, but it won't ever come to me at those prices. I'm paying $0.03 for kW⋅h. I'm spending…

Where do you live that you pay $0.03/kWh?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#219

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

> What do you suppose happens when, for example, Saudi Arabia can no longer feed itself? It just peacefully and gently starves to death? Won't somebody think of the poor Saudi family?!

There are, in case you didn’t know, other people in that country.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A powerful Saudi Arabia has not been a force for good in the world so I don't know why I'm supposed to worry about it.

The land itself isn't going anywhere. The sands of Saudi Arabia won't sink below the sea. The physical country will still exist. But what kind of government, what kind of state, can afford to govern that space and provide for its people, without oil revenue?

It will be like any other country in the world. We should hardly feel sorry that they’ll no longer be ridiculously pampered and looked after by an underclass of mistreated immigrants. They have enormous opportunities, both in other available resources and in a capital overhang, to make their way.
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