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Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#811

Post by Bluestein »

eric_b wrote: post #531
bufferoverflow wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

This disease will never be "eradicated" and it is not helpful to use that word to discuss policy decisions. Sars CoV-2 has numerous animal reservoirs and an incredible transmission rate. It will never be gone from this Earth. We will get vaccines and we will come up with better treatments negating its effects, but this coronavirus is here to stay. It will be a fifth endemic human coronavirus.

Case in point, these poor things ...

"Denmark to cull millions of minks after mutated coronavirus spreads to people"

- https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/05/denmark-to-cull-millions...

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#812

Post by tachyonbeam »

mrozbarry wrote: post #618
tinus_hn wrote: post #582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well that settles it then. We’ll just wait for a few more years to see what the long term side effects are.

I know you say that in mockery, but I'd rather be in isolation for longer and have a better idea what the long term of this looks like. Most other vaccines have the same process.

[dead]

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#813

Post by tempestn »

robot wrote: post #729
jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

no significant side-effects _for now_.

The mechanism of action is known, so potential side effects are largely predictable. I'm not an expert, but I don't see any reason to think there would be unexpected long term side effects from this sort of vaccination. Is there reason to think otherwise?

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#815

Post by freewilly1040 »

samatman wrote: post #778
gizmo wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

> Mutations aren't a serious concern. Because when viruses mutate it's the strains that are more infectious and less lethal that win out. If only it worked that way! It doesn't, of course. A random walk can lead anywhere in the adjacent landscape. That includes moving up in lethality without moving down in infectiousness. What you have written here is plausible-sounding nonsense; if it were true, the 1918 flu would n…

The oft-cited theory about 1918 is that WWI upended the traits that were selected for in the virus. Whereas in peace time a more serious case would reduce the mobility of the victim, in war a serious infection would result in the patient (a soldier) being transported off the front lines, spreading the more serious version of the virus more.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#816

Post by Animats »

rrrrrrrrrrrryan wrote: post #809
Animats wrote: post #788

Earlier quoted context omitted.

-80C is dry ice (frozen CO2) temperature. So you can carry vaccine vials around in a cooler with a block of dry ice. Pfizer has a dry ice shipping container good for 10 days. FedEx can ship that. Then the vaccine can be stored at refrigerator temperature for maybe 5 days. Dry Ice costs maybe $3/Kg. The SF bay area has dry ice delivery.[1] Lagos, Nigeria has dry ice delivery.[2] Bismark, North Dakota has a dry ice pla…

It's still more difficult and expensive than the alternative. It's not a big deal for the first world, but poorer nations may hold out for future vaccines that remain stable at higher temperatures and only require a single dose.

Base technology first, then convenience features.

Merck is working on a one-dose pill, but that's not expected before mid-2021.

There's micro encapsulation for vaccines.[1][2] The vulnerable active molecule can be put inside a coating that is stable in storage but dissolves after injection.

[1] https://www.academia.edu/33376119/Microencapsulation_of_Vacc...

[2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/immunology-and-microbio...

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#817

Post by tempestn »

3327 wrote: post #793
jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

The study is suspect end points. I cannot elaborate - too long. I will let the virologist PHDs weigh in here to take this point forward. Tldr: i have a team in a top institution. There are gaps and the news is TGTBT.

What's the point of even commenting if you're too busy to so much as string together a few coherent sentences?

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#818

Post by alexduggleby »

datenhorst wrote: post #651
tuna-piano wrote: post #153

For those wondering how their vaccines will be distributed among countries during the next year when supply is constrained... it seems complicated. Pfizer is a US company, but has at least one key ingredient from Austria, is made with technology from Germany, has manufacturing in US+Europe, etc. Pfizer's CEO answered this question this morning on CNBC. Pfizer has two separate manufacturing divisions- one in the US (M…

Do you have more information about the ingredient from Austria?

Polymun from Klosterneuburg (near Vienna) are suppliers of Lipid-Nanoparticles used for mRNA vaccines.

Translated from: "Bei der Impfstoff-Entwicklung von Pfizer und Biontech mischt auch die Klosterneuburger Firma Polymun mit. Die heimischen Experten liefern wichtige Teile für die Vakzine zu. Als eines von nur wenigen Unternehmen weltweit ist Polymun auf die Herstellung von Lipid-Nanopartikeln spezialisiert. Diese werden für die Herstellung von mRNA-Impfstoffen gegen Covid-19 gebraucht, da die verwendete mRNA ein geeignetes Transportvehikel braucht, um in den Körper eingeschleust zu werden."

Source (German): https://kurier.at/wissen/gesundheit/biontech-plant-zulassung...

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#820

Post by brandmeyer »

bitcurious wrote: post #743
redisman wrote: post #728

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course yes. Every person on earth will want this vaccine eventually. If the US wants to play games, they have tens of billions of units to sell elsewhere.

At this point this is obvious, but it took the pandemic getting out of hand to create the demand. When SARS hit many companies invested in vaccines and demand vanished. The purpose of the government guaranteed buy is to move up the timeline of when R&D starts.

In principle, yes, that would have been a good example of government intervention to stabilize market expectations. However, in practice that isn't what happened.

First, this is a line of research that began in January well before the pandemic actually got out of hand. Researchers started developing a vaccine as soon as there were indications that the transmission rate and fatality rate would be high.

Second, Operation Warp Speed was announced in early April. This was already long after the pandemic had gotten out of hand.

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