Earlier quoted context omitted.
The latest data (preprint, not peer reviewed etc etc) mention memory B and T cells up to 8 months after recovery from the illness. This means that an immunity of one year is probably likely. This would be probably enough to quench the spread, but not to eradicate the virus.
I'd happily take a shot a year for a decade in return for getting rid of lockdown.
Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
771–780 of 1001 posts
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#772Earlier quoted context omitted.
Flu has a unique capability to recombine that allows it to mutate more readily than other viruses. Hoping that the more simple coronavirus will be less fortunate. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_shift
Ability to recombine is not unique to the flu. SARS-CoV-2 is suspected to have been formed through a recombination event in vivo. [1] Mutation rates can also be manipulated through selective pressure e.g. vaccine-based herd immunity. For example, a vaccine-resistant polio virus has recently emerged. [2] [1] https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/27/eabb9153 [2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/11/1411041…
A perfect example of why we won’t be able to eradicate Coronavirus. Polio was an easier target with stronger reasons to wish it gone, and we have failed.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#773Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?
-80C storage is an issue, you are definitely right, but it is a common requirement for many biological samples and protein-based drug therapies. -80C lab freezers are not that expensive and all over the place. I used to work in biotech and, at one company, all of our intermediate drug substance storage was -80C. we had freezers big enough to drive a forklift into; one such a freezer could store millions of doses... a…
(That's -112 F, for anyone else wondering.)
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#774Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?
Not so good: Safety data is for 2 months only
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#775Earlier quoted context omitted.
At least this one has a decent looking 'n' value. The BBC also address this in part > There are still questions - how long does immunity last, does the vaccine work as well in high-risk elderly people, does it stop you spreading the virus or just from developing symptoms? I'd rate the news as "vibing" on a scale of clickbait to party for the world
The current n=94. The real n=43.5k data apparently will come later. Article doesn’t specify when, but “hopes” to have enough of the larger n analyzed to submit to regulators by 3rd week of November.
I'm not suggesting Pfizer is up to something nefarious, just that the biomedical literature is littered with studies with N 40k in some ways is irrelevant if none of those participants have the processes in play. It's more like recruiting N >40k to get N=94 to study.
I'm also not suggesting with 90% effectiveness that there's probably no effect, just that my guess is a true value of 60% isn't outside the realm of possibility once you consider all the factors that could be in play besides the random sampling variation that's assumed by their tests.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#776https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25033844&p=2
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25033844&p=3
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25033844&p=4
(Once we've rolled out some long-suffering performance improvements, all of this should blissfully disappear, including this sort of comment. Thanks for your patience.)
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#777Given we can't even get people to wear masks, regardless of efficacy I think we mainly have an education issue and half the country voted for "fuck that let's die." I think we need to spend as much time/money on a social campaign with mask mandates, social distancing, quarantine, contact tracing.
I liken it to the war on drugs, which used fear-mongering and propaganda to convince people that drugs are bad and that we need to lock up people that are making decisions regarding their own bodies and minds. Instead of educating people on the unbiased pros/cons of recreational and medical drug use, so that people are actually informed about the decisions they're making. Instead, we have a war on drugs that is fueled by corruption and labels non-violent offenders as criminals.
When it comes to the pandemic, there is a similar approach of fear-mongering and forced coercion. Those that refuse to wear a mask may just be people that have everyone's interest in mind because they believe they are rebelling against government trying to get more power, which they think is worse in the long-term.
I respect the mask requirements when, for example, entering the grocery story, but I also feel uncomfortable by the forced coercion, re-goalposting, and increase in government power. I believe the best approach forward is setting a good example and informing people on all aspects of the facts without bias.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#778Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…
Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…
If only it worked that way! It doesn't, of course.
A random walk can lead anywhere in the adjacent landscape. That includes moving up in lethality without moving down in infectiousness. What you have written here is plausible-sounding nonsense; if it were true, the 1918 flu would never have occurred.
The good news is that influenza is almost pathologically mutation-prone, and coronaviruses are not.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#779Earlier quoted context omitted.
The variations are enough to have differences in infectiousness and to allow us to trace the spread a bit, but as far as we know immunity to any of them is immunity to all of them.
I think someone should clarify the strands vs. genetic variations here. Because the reports from Denmarks Mink fiasco indicated that antibodies were not as effective on the mutation that appeared there short time ago. This would contradict the one-fits-all immunity argument.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#780Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…
Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…
Of course it helps to get the actual rate so close to 0 that the contact tracers are not overloaded