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Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#371

Post by hairytrog »

jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

Developing countries have youth immunity. When you convolve covid hospitalization / IFR as function of age with age distribution, developing countries have no risk whatsoever from COVID. that's why Brazil and India are nearing herd immunity with basically no serious medical infrastructure saturation. Median age in Africa is 19... No fks given. Covid vaccine is just for old people/developing countries.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#372

Post by gizmo »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #305
lbeltrame wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The latest data (preprint, not peer reviewed etc etc) mention memory B and T cells up to 8 months after recovery from the illness. This means that an immunity of one year is probably likely. This would be probably enough to quench the spread, but not to eradicate the virus.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even be traced, get a false positive. Or to put it differently, people have to be called 50 times and get tested and self-isolate 50 times before they actually test positive. And for younger people 80% of cases are completely inconsequential. You might think 50 contacts is unrealistically high, but most people still go to work, to school, see friends, use public transportation, etc.

Covid19 would also be over if people with symptoms would just stay home. But that's clearly not happening either. We've got to be realistic about how people behave in the real world.

Mutations aren't a serious concern. Because when viruses mutate it's the strains that are more infectious and less lethal that win out.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#373

Post by stu2b50 »

317070 wrote: post #321
justforyou wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pfizer stated it's intention to delay release of findings until after the election. This is not a surprise.

Do you have a source for this? I am curious if this is true.

Quick Google seems to indicate it's true.

>Pfizer said it will wait until after the US election to file its COVID-19 vaccine with the US regulator, as it awaits important safety data to become available.

https://pharmaphorum.com/news/pfizer-to-wait-until-after-ele...

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#374

Post by evandijk70 »

3dbrows wrote: post #5

At the time of writing (2020-11-09 12:04 UTC) the article uses "90% of people" and "90% protection" interchangeably. I assume it means "90% of individuals achieve immunity", rather than "individuals achieve 90% immunity". EDIT: See child comment re: Pfizer press release. EDIT 2: See [1] for said press release, which has more detailed information than the BBC article. [1] https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/pre…

Note that they provided 'Confirmed COVID-19 in Phase 2/3 participants without evidence of infection before vaccination [ Time Frame: From 7 days after the second dose of study intervention to the end of the study, up to 2 years ]'

as their primary outcome in their study registration

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04368728

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#376

Post by mxcrossb »

benlumen wrote: post #145
zpeti wrote: post #17

Seems like a good time to buy shares in whoever manufactures industrial sized extra cold freezers.

Good time to buy shares in almost anything that's not related to online meetings or home deliveries, to be honest. Stock markets are skyrocketing.

I saw some claims on Twitter that zoom took a hit, though there’s enough random noise in the market that I never know what to believe

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#377

Post by bluGill »

chinathrow wrote: post #315
sekai wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ebola was localized. COVID-19 is not You could easily localize COVID-19, just make a vaccination passport. No entry to a country if you're not vaccinated. > How many locations globally have this level of refrigeration Almost all developer countries, urban centres, where majority of people live anyway.

> Almost all developer countries, urban centres, where majority of people live anyway. At -80C? Edit: There are hardly storage places right now for these temperatures. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byW1GExQB84

You can buy dry ice at your local grocery store. You can probably buy a cooler to put it in. And you get a week to use it after thawing, so if there is a break in the supply chain you only need to detect it and announce a vaccination clinic to that area. There might be some small town that gets 100% vaccination early on just because the truck broke down nearby and so local doctors were suddenly called upon to vaccinate their whole town just to use doses that couldn't be shipped any farther.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#378

Post by lbeltrame »

Eric_WVGG wrote: post #304
jryle70 wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So those who claim that Russian vaccine is only on the 1/2 phase spread an outright lie. Russian vaccine was announced back in August, when it was only on phase 1/2. In contrast phase 3 Pfizer/biontech had been well under way at that time. Russia announced a not fully tested vaccine, proudly called it "Sputnik V". The exact words Putin used when announced it was: "As far as I know, a vaccine against a new coronavir…

Does anyone know if the Russian vaccine is “live,” “deactivated,” or his new RNA type?

Neither. It is made of two replication-deficient human adenoviruses, Ad5 and Ad26, IIRC, which carry part or the entire spike protein (I need to check, I don't remember).

One shot is with Ad5, the other with Ad26. This is done because Ad5 is a "known" adenovirus by most population, that means that a sizable fraction has antibodies against it.

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