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Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

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Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#81

Post by renewiltord »

michaelbrave wrote: post #39
dougmwne wrote: post #7

I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.

Covid isn't necessarily the primary concern but one crisis among many. Arguably most civilization collapses happened in times when there were too many crises at once, that individually could be handled but all at once or in close succession become overwhelming. A current example of this would be that with climate change we face increase in temperatures causing wildfires on the west coast, deadly heatwaves in the sout…

> Calling this a prosperous time is also flawed, for who? The middle class is nearly gone, freedoms are being eroded, racial tensions are still high, the world order is destabilizing as many governments lean into more dictator-like structures.

- It is a prosperous time for far more than ever before. Within the last thirty years, a new world power has risen and raised 400 million people out of poverty in an unprecedented act of economic engineering with no military conquest to enable it. Never before has this been done. Its neighbour during this time has simultaneously raised 180 million people out of poverty. During this time neither nation has fought its neighbour. Before this massive reduction of human unhappiness, the loss of the median American's third car pales.

- Absolute measures of human standards of living have continuously increased. They are not going down. The major world economies have all improved continuously. You will need to define the middle class and why that measurement is meaningful to you. If Bezos gets Mars and I get a piece of American land the size of San Francisco, our relative inequality will have increased, but I will take that trade every day.

- Racial tensions were way higher in the past. Black people were segregated! In South Africa, they had apartheid. And a little farther back and Japanese-Americans were in concentration camps. In California, the fourteen thousand Army National Guard troops suppressed race riots.

- The world order is being destabilized as America withdraws the shield that preserved Pax Americana. This is true. But that was a subsidy to (or perhaps an investment in) the world, a tide that raised all ships, and America's more than anyone else's. America prospered with world trade. By these actions, America weakens herself. But that's geopolitics. The sands shift with the wind. We shall see what happens. Other generations faced greater threats.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#82

Post by ekianjo »

abraxas wrote: post #17
dougmwne wrote: post #7

I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.

Nobody serious sees the Coronavirus as an existential threat to humanity unless it mutates in a way that really enables it to wipe out most humans. Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. The rise in nationalism and authoritarianism around the world…

> Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model.

Except that most models are piss-poor at predicting anything and that they only cherry pick the ones that happen to make it with new data.

On top of that, climate change is a slow moving disaster, and we are typically good at mitigating long term changes (at least way better than urgent crises). Scientists calling for the end of the world at every opportunity will look ridiculous 100 years from now.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#83

Post by tasuki »

nullsense wrote: post #57

I think 2015 was the peak of human civilization, and it's been going downhill ever since. It seems like with climate change and loss of biodiversity the next 3 decades will see a steep decline in world wide stability.

The peak of what aspect of human civilization? And why 2015?

[Edit: I find it highly unlikely the peak of human civilization, whatever it means, should happen during my lifetime. Surely the Romans in 100BC might have thought the same as you do? Why do you think there won't be people in 2222 who think the same?]

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#84

Post by simonh »

aeternum wrote: post #11

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so.

It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the consequences of using it. Nobody 100 years ago had the slightest clue that the industrialisation at the time could cause global warming, for example.

As for examples of pivotal moments, WW2 is a good example. We came very close to the world being completely dominated by Orwell style authoritarian one party states. A boot stamping on a human face, forever. It might even still happen. With social engineering and modern surveillance technology as used in China, we could end up in a super-stable oppressive regime with no way out.

Nuclear annihilation is another example. We came scarily close several times as you pointed out.

Global warming is a huge issue, it may even be too late to stop massive changes in our environment that will last thousands of years and shape human history and global biology permanently.

Genetic engineering could change who and what we are as a species in ways that might be hard or impossible to undo. It’s not any one of these that create the hinge either though, it’s all of them happening together.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#85

Post by renewiltord »

fn1 wrote: post #25
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #18

I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…

> Keeping global warming below 2°C is a pipe dream I think/hope it's possible by a war-mobilization type of effort, where industries start working together for the goal. We not only have to stop all emissions to zero, but should probably start removing co2 from the atmosphere as well: https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/carbon-dioxide-remov... https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/wanna-limit-global-w... But th…

You will never do this easily. If I run a developing nation there is absolutely no way I accept that you, a developed nation with a century of pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, will merely accept a reduction of your annual emissions. I will pump as much CO2 as necessary to raise my population into prosperity and until you have taken out enough GHG to match my historic emissions you're going to have to either take me with guns and bombs or you're going to have to pay me.

You don't want to do the first because future millions of people are not worth the lives of present millions. And you're not going to do the latter because you can't afford it. You burnt too much to get here.

So guess what? You're fucked. I'm not going to help you for free.

It's like Europe giving Brazil shit over the Amazon. Buddy, you guys clear cut your forests. Your absolute forest cover doesn't matter. You've killed so many of your forests. Brazil has 60% forest cover. Germany has 30%. You cut your trees to build cities. And I can't? No, raze your cities or pay me for 400 years of treelessness.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#86

Post by dvdkhlng »

Camas wrote: post #26
abraxas wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody serious sees the Coronavirus as an existential threat to humanity unless it mutates in a way that really enables it to wipe out most humans. Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. The rise in nationalism and authoritarianism around the world…

>according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. Obviously not true. https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emis...

>> according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model.

> Obviously not true.

I think GP was referring to predictions of climate sensibility to changes in CO2 concentration appearing to track the predicted worst-case [1]. He was not referring to the predictions of CO2 concentration per se.

And the predictions about CO2 rise you refer to are not very comforting anyway. If the 2 degree line is crossed, as predicted by these data, then a cascade of tipping points [2] will likely put the earth into a permanently "hot" climate state.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/13/climate-...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_...

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#87

Post by sharken »

aeternum wrote: post #11

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

Avoiding the atomic war in 1983 is a much larger historic event without a doubt.

If anything the current time marks the point where politicians were given too much control of otherwise free countries.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#88

Post by XorNot »

chubot wrote: post #4

Subjectively it feels sorta true for a 40 year old, but I bet it pales in comparison to WW2. Large portions of many nations perished, and their kin had to rebuild society. Nuclear weapons were deployed for the first time. The fact that we even recovered from it is amazing (although some didn't, certainly). I live in the US because my grandparents' generation lost the war. And the US has a generation named after the e…

This is all an argument that there were perceptually worse times before, so how could it be bad now?

WW2 setup an era defined by one very unusual property: the absolute dominance of the United States and it's economy as the global hegemon.

But the US is not adapted to the notion that what it achieved from that era was a set of historically unique advantages that are not a property of "American exceptionalusm" but rather what you get when you're one of the few nations on the planet which didn't have its cities bombed.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#89

Post by lrem »

simonh wrote: post #84
aeternum wrote: post #11

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…

I'm afraid democracies are inherently unstable. Athenian lasted 200 years and got swallowed up by Macedonian autocracy. Roman lasted 500 years and got overthrown by the army. Polish lasted 350 years and the parliament voted to allow neighbouring empires to divide the country. The US is at 250 years and people are seriously worried about it devolving into either Gilead or Cyberpunk any moment now.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#90

Post by dvdkhlng »

ekianjo wrote: post #82
abraxas wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody serious sees the Coronavirus as an existential threat to humanity unless it mutates in a way that really enables it to wipe out most humans. Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. The rise in nationalism and authoritarianism around the world…

> Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. Except that most models are piss-poor at predicting anything and that they only cherry pick the ones that happen to make it with new data. On top of that, climate change is a slow moving disaster, and we are…

> On top of that, climate change is a slow moving disaster, and we are typically good at mitigating long term changes (at least way better than urgent crises). Scientists calling for the end of the world at every opportunity will look ridiculous 100 years from now.

I wish I could share your optimism. Climate change may be a slow moving disaster, however it is more a "high latency" moving disaster. In the sense that once the symptoms start hurting us, it will not be possible to administer any control inputs that will effect the course of climate change within an acceptable period of time.

And while we may be good at mitigating long term changes, I think "existential crisis" kind of long term changes may not have any modes of mitigation that would be acceptable to the current generation of humans (like accepting that 90% of world population just won't have a chance of long-term surivival).

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