11–20 of 315 posts
In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...
I think something like this can only be determined in retrospect. The importance of a specific event usually makes little impact at the time it occurs, and reverberates through the future. It's only upon looking back that we can see how important it was.
Was Nietzsche world-renowned when he was actively writing, or Einstein when he made his discoveries?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
And it was probably true for most of them. The stakes for humanity keep rising, so "now" is usually the most important time in history.
I mean stakes have been pretty high when Mongolians were invading Europe and China, when Hitler was invading everywhere, etc etc.
But you could argue too that post nuclear has been continually the highest stakes by far.
I have a hunch every society in the past thought that.
As far as I know, it's only really since the enlightenment/industrial revolution, that people feel like the future is going to be better. The idea that the past was the golden age, where Humans were much more advanced, knew more, Had better technology, etc, seems to be the common position in history.
Im not sure about the feeling that society was"hungry" ala the article, but I suspect that feeling is connected.
I was educated at my university that the hinge of history was actually World War I. Hundreds of millions died in horrific new waus, the world centralized around a pole of power, and basically the world has only been getting better since.
https://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-50-55-blu...
If we look at the 21st century so far, it just hasn’t been... that interesting! Indeed some scholars of technological change (to take just one metric) actually think the pace of change has slowed. The 20th century gave us flight, the Haber-Bosch process, nuclear weapons, antibiotics, space flight, computers, the Pill, the Internet. The 21st? The iPhone? Meh.
Think long term. Expect a humdrum next decade and an interesting next century.
I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.
Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model.
The rise in nationalism and authoritarianism around the world is another phenomenon that could unleash forces of global conflict which might lead to cataclysms like a nuclear war or another world war at least.
Of course pivotal moments in history can only be declared as such in hindsight. But the forces leading up to them usually gather steam decades before. It looks as we have no shortage of those in our time.
I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in the future. Keeping global warming below 2°C is a pipe dream IMO, and the big question remains to be seen of whether we see big positive feedback loops that result in greatly increased warming (8°C or so). If that happens, WWII will look inconsequential by comparison.
I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...
I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.