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Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

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Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#21

Post by sandworm101 »

aeternum wrote: post #11

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

There were a great many other close calls. Rarely did it boil down to one person, but all sorts of things brought us dangerously close. And those are only the ones we know about. Who knows what mistakes have never been made public.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200807-the-nuclear-mist...

>>As it happens, on this occasion there was no imposter – at least, not a human one. The figure skulking around the fence is thought to have been a large black bear. It was all a mistake. But back at Volk Field, the squadron was still unaware of this fact. They had been told there would be no practice runs, and as they boarded their planes, they were entirely convinced that this was it –World War Three had begun.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#22

Post by Robotbeat »

chubot wrote: post #4

Subjectively it feels sorta true for a 40 year old, but I bet it pales in comparison to WW2. Large portions of many nations perished, and their kin had to rebuild society. Nuclear weapons were deployed for the first time. The fact that we even recovered from it is amazing (although some didn't, certainly). I live in the US because my grandparents' generation lost the war. And the US has a generation named after the e…

Agreed. Every great power today was profoundly molded by it. America & Soviet Union became the sole superpowers. It basically decided the communist government of China. It eventually set free the other next great powers, such as India and Nigeria, from colonial rule. The impact on technology was equally profound. The computer, radar, the jet, the turbo pumped liquid rocket, the drone, the atomic bomb...

I mean, an entirely new source of energy was first harnessed (really the first since the invention of fire) and the first human made object was sent (briefly) into space...

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#23

Post by cmehdy »

abraxas wrote: post #17
dougmwne wrote: post #7

I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.

Nobody serious sees the Coronavirus as an existential threat to humanity unless it mutates in a way that really enables it to wipe out most humans. Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. The rise in nationalism and authoritarianism around the world…

There's a possibility that the third sentence you wrote is tightly coupled with the second one.

On a personal level I mainly agree with you (we're on track for much worse than the RCP2.5 that everyone is barely even attempting to make goals for), but the complexity of the system seems to bring people to vastly disagree about this somehow.

I think what really has become a turning point of our civilization in the last few decades is that specialization and the complexity of the world are absolutely entirely outside of the reach of any single person. The expansion of diversity and knowledge in the last few hundred years is much like the expansion of the universe, in that we can't seem to be able to beat it at all in terms of speed no matter what we do.

Any sci-fi device that could perhaps offset that eventually (e.g. a future neuralink-thing being able to "upload" knowledge into you) is not the kind of thing I would bet my savings on in terms of time constants when compared to much more immediate events like climate change wrecking our modern civilization.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#24

Post by hiharryhere »

Hingey times are defined in retrospect. I do think covid provides an easy event for future historians to point to as the narrative of this time is written.

As people living through it we know the reality is far more complicated - there are wars, rising popularism, the rise of China, a hyperactive media and a million other factors. COVID will be the convenient way to explain the big changes to the world order that are already underway, just as we were taught the assassination of Franz Ferdinand kicked off World War I.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#25

Post by fn1 »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #18

I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…

> Keeping global warming below 2°C is a pipe dream

I think/hope it's possible by a war-mobilization type of effort, where industries start working together for the goal.

We not only have to stop all emissions to zero, but should probably start removing co2 from the atmosphere as well:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/carbon-dioxide-remov...

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/wanna-limit-global-w...

But there are a lot of social issues going along with this: Up to 8% of greenhouse-gas emissions come from concrete, so building things.

I cannot imagine a world without construction, there are so many business processes and jobs involved with that.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#26

Post by Camas »

abraxas wrote: post #17
dougmwne wrote: post #7

I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.

Nobody serious sees the Coronavirus as an existential threat to humanity unless it mutates in a way that really enables it to wipe out most humans. Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. The rise in nationalism and authoritarianism around the world…

>according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model.

Obviously not true.

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emis...

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#27

Post by bsenftner »

Silly concept; the present is perpetually the most important time in history because it is the only time we can do anything. The past is cemented by what happened, and the future is not here. There always is re-writing history, but then again that is achieved in the present. The present is the only time that can matter, because it's the only time we have agency.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#30

Post by SpiritRising84 »

abraxas wrote: post #17
dougmwne wrote: post #7

I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.

Nobody serious sees the Coronavirus as an existential threat to humanity unless it mutates in a way that really enables it to wipe out most humans. Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. The rise in nationalism and authoritarianism around the world…

>The rise in nationalism and authoritarianism around the world is another phenomenon that could unleash forces of global conflict

It seems inevitable to me, as the forces catalysing this movement are only radicalising and accelerating. Another $500bn to blacks announced yesterday, by a man the media would have us believe is a White supremacist? An organisation which has been practically invisible for half a century declared a terrorist organisation for its hypothetical position of supporting its own people, while armed hordes of the more melanin variety wreak havoc across the country demanding total capitulation by all power structures - and getting it.

We are all supposed to ignore the devastating effects of multiracialism, critical theory (regarding race, gender, sexuality, and so forth) while our cities burn, our monuments are torn down, and our people are vilified in every advertisement, movie, employment opportunity, or even violently assaulted in the street?

It simply cannot stand. A people will only take so much. Unfortunatelyy, I'm quite sure those in politics and media who seem hellbent on ensuring this fate understand this very well.

As a proudly White man in 2020 with a beautiful White family, what do I have to fear from war that is not assured by the trajectory of the status quo? At least war offers me hope.

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