Are we living at the 'hinge of history'? • Hacker News Board

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#31

Post by flatline » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 4:59 AM UTC

fn1 wrote: post #25

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #18

I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…

> Keeping global warming below 2°C is a pipe dream I think/hope it's possible by a war-mobilization type of effort, where industries start working together for the goal. We not only have to stop all emissions to zero, but should probably start removing co2 from the atmosphere as well: https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/carbon-dioxide-remov... https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/wanna-limit-global-w... But th…

If anything I think the global pandemic has shown how unprepared we are to come together globally and utilize technology to solve hard problems. Maybe something good will come from all of this in that direction and we will learn from our mistakes.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#32

Post by daliusd » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 5:01 AM UTC

libraryofbabel wrote: post #16

Probably only true if we allow the “hinge” to be a process that spans several centuries, perhaps starting around 1800 with the beginnings of industrialization and gathering pace in the 20th century. If we look at the 21st century so far, it just hasn’t been... that interesting! Indeed some scholars of technological change (to take just one metric) actually think the pace of change has slowed. The 20th century gave us…

IMHO iPhone (or smartphones) are under valued. Yes, they do not give you more (like antibiotics give more life or nuclear more energy) but they absolutely help you to lose less time (e.g. navigation that helps you to avoid traffic jams and get lost in unknown place). That replicated in billions of people changes the world’s pace drastically.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#33

Post by guram11 » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 5:01 AM UTC

Yes, if a pandemic that spread over the world in such short period of time has not rewrite our historical standards and understandings, our own existence will already hinge on destruction

this virus will remain with us for years to come like influenza etc, we can only hope after this "wake up call" we're actually ready for the next time when a real "bio-terror" is unleash upon the world again

and then also there's fake news, a harder problem than the virus itself, which we also learned are more disruptive and needs to be contained just as well

Remember WHO told us wearing mask is useless? Remember WHO told us this will not become a pandemic? Remember WHO told us all that shit in WUHAN is under control? all this propaganda fake news is a slap in our face that no one can do anything about

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#34

Post by raz32dust » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 5:02 AM UTC

dougmwne wrote: post #7

I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.

Boring? I certainly disagree with that. Stable is also questionable. Prosperity - one should not take for granted. The world is much more connected today, and most of our prosperity and stability comes from people with varying interests finding ways to work together and trust each other. Sparks in one part of the system can bring down the whole system much more easily.

The pandemic, when combined with widespread misinformation and mistrust, increasing inequality and climate change makes for a potent combination and people are right to be worried.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#35

Post by theplague42 » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 5:02 AM UTC

SpiritRising84 wrote: post #30

abraxas wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody serious sees the Coronavirus as an existential threat to humanity unless it mutates in a way that really enables it to wipe out most humans. Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. The rise in nationalism and authoritarianism around the world…

>The rise in nationalism and authoritarianism around the world is another phenomenon that could unleash forces of global conflict It seems inevitable to me, as the forces catalysing this movement are only radicalising and accelerating. Another $500bn to blacks announced yesterday, by a man the media would have us believe is a White supremacist? An organisation which has been practically invisible for half a century d…

The irony...

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#36

Post by Aperocky » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 5:02 AM UTC

fn1 wrote: post #25

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #18

I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…

> Keeping global warming below 2°C is a pipe dream I think/hope it's possible by a war-mobilization type of effort, where industries start working together for the goal. We not only have to stop all emissions to zero, but should probably start removing co2 from the atmosphere as well: https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/carbon-dioxide-remov... https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/wanna-limit-global-w... But th…

We can talk about scrubbing Carbon from the atmosphere once we have hydrogen fusion (read: infinite energy).

Before that, it's just not feasible or possible in a human society.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#37

Post by gertlex » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 5:02 AM UTC

fn1 wrote: post #25

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #18

I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…

> Keeping global warming below 2°C is a pipe dream I think/hope it's possible by a war-mobilization type of effort, where industries start working together for the goal. We not only have to stop all emissions to zero, but should probably start removing co2 from the atmosphere as well: https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/carbon-dioxide-remov... https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/wanna-limit-global-w... But th…

My covid takeaway is to be more certain than before that:

> [a war-mobilization type of effort, where industries start working together for the goal] is a pipe dream.

I'd love to be convinced otherwise. While technically possible, I'm wary of the social/economic/political aspects not being surmountable.

(Edit: Your comment was edited while I pondered mine, and now includes mention of the social, etc. aspect :) )

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#38

Post by bit_logic » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 5:04 AM UTC

The next few decades can be claimed as the hinge of history due to two reasons, climate change and genetic engineering. There have been many wars and changes in the past, but now is the first time that our technology has basically reached worldwide geoengineering scale. We are fundamentally changing the climate of the entire world, that has never happened before in human history.

Throughout all of human history, the human has not changed. If you somehow time traveled a human baby from 10k BC to present day, they would grow up and fit in with no issues. Now the very nature of what is human could change due to genetic engineering. Again, this has never happened before in human history.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#39

Post by michaelbrave » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 5:10 AM UTC

dougmwne wrote: post #7

I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.

Covid isn't necessarily the primary concern but one crisis among many. Arguably most civilization collapses happened in times when there were too many crises at once, that individually could be handled but all at once or in close succession become overwhelming. A current example of this would be that with climate change we face increase in temperatures causing wildfires on the west coast, deadly heatwaves in the southwest and hurricanes along the Atlantic. Due to Covid hospitals are already overwhelmed so injuries from hurricanes are harder to deal with, making not massive events worse than the sum of their parts. Combine this with governments unwilling to take action and who actively dismantle the preparations already in place and it is worth being concerned.

Calling this a prosperous time is also flawed, for who? The middle class is nearly gone, freedoms are being eroded, racial tensions are still high, the world order is destabilizing as many governments lean into more dictator-like structures. I genuinely want to understand what you see to give you hope because right now I'm failing to find much to grab onto.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#40

Post by dgellow » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 5:10 AM UTC

Aperocky wrote: post #36

fn1 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Keeping global warming below 2°C is a pipe dream I think/hope it's possible by a war-mobilization type of effort, where industries start working together for the goal. We not only have to stop all emissions to zero, but should probably start removing co2 from the atmosphere as well: https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/carbon-dioxide-remov... https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/wanna-limit-global-w... But th…

We can talk about scrubbing Carbon from the atmosphere once we have hydrogen fusion (read: infinite energy). Before that, it's just not feasible or possible in a human society.

Don’t we already have close to infinite energy with nuclear fission? With almost zero impact on the atmosphere’s CO2.