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Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

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Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#341

Post by hkmurakami »

jonahbenton wrote: post #334
smallnamespace wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're a renter and you when lease renewal time comes up and you see twice as many open units in your apartment, wouldn't you also bargain more aggressively with your landlord? Conversely, if you're a building manager and you an X% occupancy rate target, you're going to need to cut prices in order to maintain that rate if a bunch of tenants don't renew. This is pretty much textbook microeconomics 101. Going a bit…

Simple supply and demand is a one-time game model. Property is a repeated, long term subgame component of the much larger repeated long term game that is the financial system. Dynamics are completely different. One example, it makes more sense to give someone 3-6 months free at price $X than to get them in at .5 or .75 $X.

To add to this, player dynamics are quite different between big corporate landlords and small landlords.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#342

Post by ericmcer »

tjr225 wrote: post #73
fountainofage wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But cities have enduring appeal - proximity to people and culture and things to do I think this is key right here. For the foreseeable future, those things won't be any more available in an expensive city compared to an inexpensive rural area. So why buy a 1 bedroom for $2 million or rent one for $3500 a month if I can do the exact same amount of networking and see the exact same amount of museums while paying sign…

Culture and things to do include a lot more than just networking and museums. One example for instance is the vast amount of unique natural beauty surrounding the Bay Area. Even rural places that have that are also expensive- though admittedly not nearly as much so. This is generally reflected in salary though.

It is actually harder to get to if you are in SF, getting in/out/through SF is the most difficult part of bay area travel. South SF/Marin if you want to be close to the coast, or east bay if you want to be closer to the Sierras.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#344

Post by lr4444lr »

jeffbee wrote: post #162
ghaff wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If nature's your priority though, you don't live in SF or SV proper. You live in the Santa Cruz mountains, Marin, or further north along the coast or in the mountains (or in the Sierras). Those aren't cheap either in many cases of course until you really get out of Bay Area commuting range.

I don't think this is generally true. You can bike right out of San Francisco over the Golden Gate Bridge and be away from the city in minutes. You can walk or bike out of the west side of silicon valley into a huge area of contiguous parkland. If you leave San Jose in the right direction you could hike for days without seeing anyone.

You can bike right out of Philly and Boise and get the same things. Maybe even more beauty. Why should we pay SF prices for the privilege?

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#345

Post by DataWorker »

baron816 wrote: post #327
captaincole wrote: post #102

I am living in SF now and this confirms a very clear pattern that I have seen emerging, particularly of tech workers. I would say that >50% of the people I know who were living in the city have left, or are in the process of leaving. Some examples (there are countless): 1) All three of the roommates that I had are choosing to leave either permanently or temporarily. 2) A friend who works for google who is going on a…

Alternate experience: I just moved into SF a week ago from elsewhere in the Bay. I was able to get a large, modern, luxury 1BR in a decent location for under $3K + almost a 1 month concession and no deposit. Being a single, young(ish) guy, it still makes sense to be in a city. I have more space than I need now, and I can afford the rent. Maybe things aren’t that nice right now, but I’m hoping they’ll get back to semi…

What’s the decent location? Even without parking rent that seems extremely low for sf. Also luxury?

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#346

Post by fiblye »

baron816 wrote: post #327
captaincole wrote: post #102

I am living in SF now and this confirms a very clear pattern that I have seen emerging, particularly of tech workers. I would say that >50% of the people I know who were living in the city have left, or are in the process of leaving. Some examples (there are countless): 1) All three of the roommates that I had are choosing to leave either permanently or temporarily. 2) A friend who works for google who is going on a…

Alternate experience: I just moved into SF a week ago from elsewhere in the Bay. I was able to get a large, modern, luxury 1BR in a decent location for under $3K + almost a 1 month concession and no deposit. Being a single, young(ish) guy, it still makes sense to be in a city. I have more space than I need now, and I can afford the rent. Maybe things aren’t that nice right now, but I’m hoping they’ll get back to semi…

> I was able to get a large, modern, luxury 1BR in a decent location for under $3K

This sounds like a joke about just how absurd SF rents are.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#347

Post by heavyset_go »

lucidguppy wrote: post #55
ghaff wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, in the US, people had been net migrating out of many cities--including today's "elite" cities--until around the late 90s for about the previous 40-50 years. The current idea that young people all want to live in cities is relatively recent. When I graduated from grad school in the mid-80s, essentially no one from my class who went to work in the Boston area actually lived in the city.

I wonder when the country will realize that the rush hour traffic of the nation is a drag on the economy and should be addressed as serious as any emergency. We need livable towns and cities with good schools where anybody can move anywhere.

Rush hour traffic is just as bad out in suburbs, and in some ways worse, because the roads are designed for much less congestion.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#348

Post by lr4444lr »

bamboozled wrote: post #40

Have others noticed this kind of "revolt against cities" attitude lately too? I do wonder if people consider the huge advantages city living can provide? I'm reading constantly that current dream is buying a plot of land in the middle no where, signing up for StarLink and growing watermelons while trying to work a full time engineering job. The thing is though, this is all just a temporary thing, even if this pandemi…

Until COVID-19, the media trend was a relentless attack on suburbs. However long the pandemic lasts, the mass experiment in remote work is likely going to have indelible impacts. Why would profitable companies want to pay big city prices for employee salaries when the evidence for many can be just as or almost as productive using remote workers with much lower cost of living?

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#349

Post by untog »

willio58 wrote: post #149
ZanyProgrammer wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your friends are how representative of SF people? 1. Going on a road trip right now is a very bad idea 2. Most normal people don't have the ability (I guess if you're a high performer in tech?) to move to another high income English speaking country. 3. Moving to Santa Cruz is a joke if you're worried about cost of living. 4. Same with Austin.

Why is going on a road trip a bad idea? I mean bring a mask, only shop weekly and keep food refrigerated, and keep social distance.

All of those things reduce risk, they do not remove it. And given that you can be asymptomatic for two weeks there’s a very real danger of spreading the virus. And there isn’t really a good reason to be doing it right now other than “I want to” so it’s not difficult to see it as a selfish act.

(the friend travelling from city to city and staying in Airbnbs sounds considerably worse to me, though)

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#350

Post by lr4444lr »

luma wrote: post #89
paul_f wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What has changed is near universal availability of high speed wireless. Followed by a national experiment in remote working. You don't have to live in the city to have a lucrative tech job.

How long does the “high paying” part stay true when companies who need technical talent can now pull candidates from the entire world? I wonder if the move towards remote work might wind up pushing down IT wages across the board. edit: instead of downvoting, maybe help me understand why I might be looking at this wrong?

They've already had that option for many years. Mass outsourcing of U.S. high skill IT just never materialized. I suspect there's a much greater managerial gulf between Bangalore and New York than between Dubuque Iowa and New York.
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