When death rates are measured based on outcomes, as in one either recovers, or is dead, the risk is 3 to 7 percent depending on where you are in the world.
(Dead people)/(recovered people) = (death rate)
Doing the math based on infection ignores the fact that many cases are in progress, outcome unknown. This makes for much smaller numbers, and a less realistic risk perception based on lack of data for the scope of risk being evaluated.
Flat out, we do not yet know whether active cases will turn bad. This also means death rates can and will change over time too. By tracking outcomes we can understand the impact of science and policy, as well as mother nature and how the virus itself continues to mutate.
Further, there is a secondary risk of ongoing, potentially chronic, complications. People may recover, but are changed significantly. Data on that is harder to boil down.
My own outcome is profound fatigue. It is significant and appears very slow to improve. Being sick was no joke. Being more tired for months on end now isn't either.
And I am fortunate, due to fatigue being among the more mild of the potential bad outcomes we know about today.
Surviving the virus does not always mean returning to normal.
Those governments acting to prevent harm are on stronger ground than many may be aware of.
The health care system costs will be serious and endure for a long time, even by measures of what governments consider a long time. In the US, that will be acute, due to our current policy. Other nations are well justified in many of their policies for this reason alone.
Health care impact translates into increased death rates from other causes. Flatten the curve is about that as much as it is being able to manage the death rate direct from COVID down.
Right now, death is understated and poor health outcomes more seriously missing from the policy discussion, as are the timelines and potential costs, efficacy of our potential remedies.
This mess is here with us for a long time. A poorly managed, non global discussion only makes it all worse across the board, risks, costs, quality of life, etc.
It is time to realize COVID is more likely to transition to endemic than we are to return to life and business as it was last year.
That will be true for humans on this planet period.