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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#441

Post by Thorrez »

irrational wrote: post #386
kasrkin623 wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who wants to live in Georgia though? I mean this unironically, there's not much to do in terms of entertainment and opportunities for a young 20 yo vs LA or NY

Isn't Atlanta a major metropolitan city? I would assume that many of the same opportunities present in LA or NY wold be available there. I live in Portland, OR and there are tons of 20 year olds here and we are a very very tiny city.

Portland is very very tiny? It has 600k people. That's larger than Atlanta.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#442

Post by red_admiral »

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

This is the point I was about to make, but you've put it better than me.

As the traditional factory job disappears more and more, the aging population will provide a huge source of new caring/support jobs. We'll have to find a way to pay them a living wage, but then we had that problem with factory jobs in the early industrial revolution too.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#443

Post by simonh »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #429
sudosysgen wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have a good enough understanding of capitalism to know that the average person will not benefit from a shrinking labour pool. You have no clue just how devastating a shrinking population would be to an economy where the real average wage hasn't increased in 40 year.

The economy in Britain improved after the black death wiped out half the population.

That's true but I think which bit of the population remains matters.

The demographic impact of a plague is pretty much the exact opposite of economic flight. In a plague the fittest and healthiest survive and are unencumbered by the elderly and unfit, but in a demographic flight the fittest and healthiest leave. Similarly in a birth rate collapse the demographics shift towards the elderly and away from the young and fit.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#444

Post by fastball »

rickdangerous1 wrote: post #440
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure having children so you won't be lonely in old age is a good thing.

Well, you're going against the forces of history itself, when say such things. People have been thinking along these lines forever.

Part of the beauty of being human is the capacity to not do things just because our forebears did them too.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#445

Post by Apocryphon »

drukenemo wrote: post #439
bananaface wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only on Hacker News would someone post a response this patronising and argumentative. I think the point he made was fine, and I'm way glad to have heard his story. It was lovely.

I disagree and I think the comment is valid. I know many cases in which children and parents are not close emotionally or physically (live away). As they say, your mileage may vary.

It might be logically valid, but it's pretty emotionally tone-deaf to blithely dismiss a long heartfelt personal account by saying "Survivor bias. Caveat emptor." Read the room, as they say.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#446

Post by TheNorthman »

bananaface wrote: post #430
nostromo wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit like hearing a successful startup founder speak about the joys of success. It’s absolutely correct, but it’s also just one data point. Keep in mind, most of the lonely old people you see have children. And I’m not sure it’s a good, caring thing to tell childless people that they will be lonely in old age, because it need not be true.

Only on Hacker News would someone post a response this patronising and argumentative. I think the point he made was fine, and I'm way glad to have heard his story. It was lovely.

Only on Hacker News would someone post a response this patronising and argumentative. I think the point he made was fine, and I'm way glad to have heard his story. It was lovely.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#447

Post by bananaface »

snowwrestler wrote: post #187
corysama wrote: post #90

This article is quite exasperated, but doesn't say much. I'm far from an expert in this area, but here's what I've read elsewhere: We're quickly moving from the population explosion problem to the population implosion problem. No one planned it or made it happen. But, it looks like we're not actually going to overflow the planet with people standing shoulder to shoulder. Instead, the problem we're facing moving forwa…

Here are two scary storylines that get discussed pretty regularly here on HN: a) AI and machine learning will raise productivity so much that they will steal millions of jobs from people. b) Global population will eventually go into decline, which will crash the economy by killing growth. But, these two stories look far less scary when considered together. In fact they seem directly complementary, although the timing…

If AI takes jobs, it doesn't cause wealth to be redistributed, it causes wealth to flow upwards to the person who owns the AI.

That might then be redistributed, but it might also not. Whether it is or isn't is largely up to the people who have the most power. In that system, which group has the most power?

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#448

Post by ido »

onion2k wrote: post #438
gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

This isn't an uncommon point of view, and that's unfortunate. It's incredibly sad to hear people fearful of loneliness in old age, and even sadder to see people decide the solution is to oblige their children to spend time with them rather than seek meaningful cross-generational friendships with people who want to spend time with you. This is a genuine problem, and one that maybe tech could actually partially solve b…

If this is all you've taken from the above than we've read 2 very different comments. The point about lonely old people is only 1 (and i would say not the most significant) point in the argument.

I have a wife and 2 (small) children. There is nobody in the world I love more than my family - it used to be only my wife previously and now grew from 1 person to 3. This has such a profound effect on my happiness now (in my 30s) that even if I die suddenly at age 55 (long before becoming a lonely old man) it would still have been worth it.

Yes you should also have friends & if they are of various ages that's even better. You dont need tech to do that either, although it is probably difficult if you live somewhere far from other people (and some developments like fenced off suburbs with no city centers make that harder still). But that is independent of the argument if you should or should not also have kids.

You can have kids and friends!

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#449

Post by jackcosgrove »

sudosysgen wrote: post #393
creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

A reducing labor population really won't help the working class. First of all, you'll be able to kiss your retirement bye bye. Second of all, you would likely see decline of the economy in real terms. This will cause huge dysfunctions in capitalism, as there will not be an efficient way to invest.

If your retirement was predicated on a forever swelling population lifting your boat, then you actually didn't save enough to retire. Secure retirements shouldn't rely on paygo systems and infinite growth.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#450

Post by mettamage »

watwut wrote: post #395
gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

Hacker news section however is not rational nor logical whenever topic of relationships comes out.

I've seen this weird thing with some people who state they are logical and then suddenly when it is about relationships they become illogical as hell. I'm not saying I'm logical in this regard, but I find it easy to notice in others.

I simply look for a clearly wrong assumption they have (look up the 10 cognitive distortions [1]). See which one they have, propose a way to test the assumption and potential pitfalls (most of the time fear) and then tell them to test it.

The answer won't be a "no". In my experience the answer will be something like "but that's just clearly nonsense." I've noticed that they do this without any data, it's purely based on thoughts based from their teenage years and they simply don't realize it.

It's hard to be rational on all topics. As we haven't learned to be rational/logical on all topics and I do think that, to some extent, our knowledge doesn't easily spill over into other topics (Antonio's Damasio hypothesis that has a neurological basis is a pretty interesting example of that [2]).

[1] https://www.verywellmind.com/ten-cognitive-distortions-ident...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somatic_marker_hypothesis

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