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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#431

Post by manquer »

ggggtez wrote: post #235
manquer wrote: post #197

One aspect this article does not address at all is the massive sex ratio imbalance in India and China (for different reasons) at around 1,100 men for every 1000 women. This means there are 100 million girls less today in these countries alone, finding a suitable partner becomes harder and there are lesser number of couples will be there in the first place who can have kids The 2.1 replacement is perhaps not adequate…

Miscarriages are not births. If the birth rate remains at 2.1 you can have as many miscarriages as you want, and the population will still increase. The same with Hikkikomori, and gay people. As long as there is 2.1 children born for every woman, then the population will increase. The only factor which you mention that is correct is that in a society that murders female babies, then yes, you will need more than a 2.1…

Yes , you are right that any one having a family will need to have a large one.

Just like China one child policy effect will be visible in another 20 years suddenly and drastically, it will be similar for gender. population will not change gently , it will be a cliff .

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#433

Post by imtringued »

young_unixer wrote: post #30
_bxg1 wrote: post #10

There's a short-term problem of society becoming "top-heavy", where there might not be enough young to pay for the continued care of the old. But in the long run this seems like a win. I wonder what impact it might have on climate projections.

A big part of that problem is that most nations have a pension system where the active work force pays for the pension of the elder instead of each person paying their own pension by saving/investing troughout their lives.

That money is worthless if it is not backed by a young labor force that can produce what the pensioners need. There are not many things that you can buy during your 30s and keep using in your 80s.

Think of a reverse Corona virus that only kills the young. Retirees have lots of money but the shops and factories are closed.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#434

Post by alecco »

Inverted population pyramid causes many problems. All the ponzi-like schemes for pensions will collapse. There will be a massive influx of sub-saharan African immigrants in the Western world as they are the only ones still making babies. Latin America holds up, mostly. But there's already internal mass migrations in the millions.

China has been investing a lot on on designer babies, artificial womb, and cloning technologies.

It's going to be... interesting to see how it all develops.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#435

Post by simonh »

mirimir wrote: post #412
nostromo wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit like hearing a successful startup founder speak about the joys of success. It’s absolutely correct, but it’s also just one data point. Keep in mind, most of the lonely old people you see have children. And I’m not sure it’s a good, caring thing to tell childless people that they will be lonely in old age, because it need not be true.

I have another data point. A dear friend died last month, after about two weeks in hospice. She had no children, but she did live in a large cohousing community. We did our best to manage visitors, but sometimes there were 5-10 people waiting to spend time with her. Which stressed the staff, and annoyed other residents. So anyway, children aren't the only path.

Quite right, but living in any community involves making compromises along with the benefits. I think the bottom line is community is an achievement that takes effort and compromise to attain.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#436

Post by bananaface »

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

The problem with the economic line of thinking is:

Why do peasants in Africa have more children than Lawyers in New York? Builders in Arkensas have more kids than tech workers in San Francisco?

Poor people in general have more kids than rich people. It doesn't fit the data.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#438

Post by onion2k »

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

This isn't an uncommon point of view, and that's unfortunate. It's incredibly sad to hear people fearful of loneliness in old age, and even sadder to see people decide the solution is to oblige their children to spend time with them rather than seek meaningful cross-generational friendships with people who want to spend time with you.

This is a genuine problem, and one that maybe tech could actually partially solve by bring adults of different ages together in ways that build friendships rather than accepting the only way to not be lonely is to rely on your family.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#439

Post by drukenemo »

bananaface wrote: post #430
nostromo wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit like hearing a successful startup founder speak about the joys of success. It’s absolutely correct, but it’s also just one data point. Keep in mind, most of the lonely old people you see have children. And I’m not sure it’s a good, caring thing to tell childless people that they will be lonely in old age, because it need not be true.

Only on Hacker News would someone post a response this patronising and argumentative. I think the point he made was fine, and I'm way glad to have heard his story. It was lovely.

I disagree and I think the comment is valid. I know many cases in which children and parents are not close emotionally or physically (live away). As they say, your mileage may vary.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#440

Post by rickdangerous1 »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #400
gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

I'm not sure having children so you won't be lonely in old age is a good thing.

Well, you're going against the forces of history itself, when say such things. People have been thinking along these lines forever.
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