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The global fertility rate is falling

bbc.com

421–430 of 881 posts

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#421
post #40

My wife’s theory is that there will be a lot of babies born in about 6 months (9 months after the quarantine started), but only for first time parents. Being quarantined with a child is the absolute best birth control.

Do people who spend more time together have more sex? I would have assumed the opposite.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#423
This is old news, bit glad it's getting mentioned I guess. Confused that the BBC seem to be running it as if it's new.

And it's astounding that they somehow put an overall negative spin on it. The problems of an ageing population seem miniscule compared to the problems of resource scarcity and climate change.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are failing to account for the gender imbalance. Consider an extreme gender ratio where for the 2.1 born for an average woman, there are 2 males and 0.1 females. This means that every generation will have 10X less women.

You can still grow, like India clearly shows, the woman just need to give birth more times.

the effect of will be only felt few generation later , lesser giving birth to lesser girls when all other things are equal means 2.1 will not work .

For example If you start with a population of 100 (50 couples )and every next gen there are 9 boys to 1 girl and fertility ratio is 2 then your third gen will have only 20 kids as there will be only 20 women in the second gen . The fourth gen will have only 4 kids and there may not a 5 gen.

Either balance has to be fixed or replacement ratio of women has to be 1 not all kids , to sustain a 1:10 ratio of gender means 10 kids per female so there will be 1 girl kid

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#426
That Dr Murray is a spin doctor too. The argument is that its good for the environment. And he says yes but the social problems. Well it doesn’t change the fact that it is one of the best ways to preserve natural environment, and somehow I think dealing with ageing society, especially with assistance of technology is an easier problem than global environmental disasters such as climate change etc. He also says it would take a few centuries for humans to disappear. I would like to see the calculations he’s done as they seem wrong.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#427
post #411

Serious thought/question: I think everyone can agree that reproduction is how you advance your gene pool to the next stage of the human species. Does this mean people who don't want kids are effectively weeding themselves out? And is this somehow a function of survival of the fittest (or natural selection) in action?

Yes, in theory all the people who refuse to reproduce will be gone and are replaced by the children of those who want to reproduce. Over the long term this problem will fix itself. However, I personally believe that the population will level out instead of keep shrinking forever until reproductive pressures fix the problem by force.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#429
post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are thinking very short term and in a very narrow range of conditions around our current economic situation. We have never seen economic conditions remotely close to what we would see if the population were actually shrinking.

We have a good enough understanding of capitalism to know that the average person will not benefit from a shrinking labour pool. You have no clue just how devastating a shrinking population would be to an economy where the real average wage hasn't increased in 40 year.

The economy in Britain improved after the black death wiped out half the population.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#430

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

This is a bit like hearing a successful startup founder speak about the joys of success. It’s absolutely correct, but it’s also just one data point. Keep in mind, most of the lonely old people you see have children. And I’m not sure it’s a good, caring thing to tell childless people that they will be lonely in old age, because it need not be true.

Only on Hacker News would someone post a response this patronising and argumentative. I think the point he made was fine, and I'm way glad to have heard his story. It was lovely.
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