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The global fertility rate is falling

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#391

Post by nostromo »

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

This is a bit like hearing a successful startup founder speak about the joys of success. It’s absolutely correct, but it’s also just one data point.

Keep in mind, most of the lonely old people you see have children. And I’m not sure it’s a good, caring thing to tell childless people that they will be lonely in old age, because it need not be true.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#392

Post by arp242 »

kijin wrote: post #339
arp242 wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In many areas the shortage of housing isn't really one of space, lack of housing, or population, but rather that everyone wants a house in the same urban areas, mostly due to the availability of jobs. If you want a house in Ireland for example, then the country-side is dirt cheap, but if you want one in Dublin or Cork then be prepared to pay through the nose. The situation seems similar in most countries. I'm not sur…

Urban areas usually have a younger population than rural areas do, so I think it's safe to assume that a dramatic change in the number of young people will affect housing prices in cities more than in rural areas. For example, that block of crappy houses near the university would be worth a lot less without a steady stream of students to rent them out to.

I think it's a bit more complex than that, houses decay over time and need replacing and upkeep. If we want sufficient housing in 50 years we need to maintain the upkeep as well, which will probably only be done according to "supply and demand", so there may still be a shortage just because many houses won't be maintained sufficiently.

In quite a few cities you already see quite a lot of housing just left derelict even though there's a housing shortage.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if a larger part of the then-old people will want to keep living in the city, as that's where they've been living their entire lives (which differs a bit from today's old population).

I don't know ... it's really hard to predict these things. It could very well be the case that you're right, but personally I wouldn't really bet on population decline significantly reducing the pressure on the housing situation. It seems more of an economical/policy issue to me than a population issue.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#393

Post by sudosysgen »

creato wrote: post #345

It is disturbing that people take for granted that this is an economic problem. This thread is full of people lamenting the fact that we could support X times as many people as we do now if we all just sacrifice Y. When I look around the world today, I think the biggest resource that is lacking is economic opportunity. Huge swathes of people are desperate, angry, and depressed, I think because there is no opportunity…

A reducing labor population really won't help the working class.

First of all, you'll be able to kiss your retirement bye bye.

Second of all, you would likely see decline of the economy in real terms. This will cause huge dysfunctions in capitalism, as there will not be an efficient way to invest.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#394

Post by sudosysgen »

creato wrote: post #375
fiblye wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The demand for labor will go up, the supply will go down. Bad for the investor class looking for profits, good for reducing economic inequality. People will be able to profit from labor again. I'm not so sure about that. Loads of wealth is consolidated at the top, both in terms of economic class and age. People who got their jobs and attained management positions after barely graduating high school are demanding ba…

You are thinking very short term and in a very narrow range of conditions around our current economic situation. We have never seen economic conditions remotely close to what we would see if the population were actually shrinking.

We have a good enough understanding of capitalism to know that the average person will not benefit from a shrinking labour pool. You have no clue just how devastating a shrinking population would be to an economy where the real average wage hasn't increased in 40 year.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#395

Post by watwut »

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

Hacker news section however is not rational nor logical whenever topic of relationships comes out.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#396

Post by sudosysgen »

enitihas wrote: post #316
dragonwriter wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> now if we could just get the robots to pay social security It's called “taxing capital” and we can (logically; whether we have the political will is a different question.)

Political will quickly arises if there is loud public demand for it.

US economic policy has an almost null correlation with public demand (and interest, really.)

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#397

Post by gedy »

cbsks wrote: post #40

My wife’s theory is that there will be a lot of babies born in about 6 months (9 months after the quarantine started), but only for first time parents. Being quarantined with a child is the absolute best birth control.

I thought so too, but birth control is so common, day after pill, etc that I don't think it will matter much, unlike the old days. I'd love to be wrong though.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#398

Post by sudosysgen »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #263
corysama wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I fully expect the Indian and Chinese population coming into wealth will go through a period of fairly outrageous conspicuous consumption. I have a hope that it will be fast-forwarded compared to the past 70 years of American history. Hopefully after a decade-long warmup and another decade of settling in, the novelty will wear off and there will be a move away from focusing on "More Stuff!" and toward focusing on "Le…

If those experiences involve moving mass long distances (such as flying to South America and hiking the Andes), then it’s all the same. I don’t see any environmental reprieve short of drastic reductions in consumptions, including travel.

Good thing that high-speed rail and other land transport infrastructure is being built in order to connect the entirety of Eurasia and eventually Africa, with sufficient throughput to feed multiple US economies.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#399

Post by inopinatus »

JackFr wrote: post #371
inopinatus wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contraception is not dysfunction. There is no cultural elite brainwashing me into believe otherwise. I can arrive at this position all on my lonesome, simply by rejecting the appalling prejudices of the Catholic church (and many other religions), misogynists in general, and bigoted authoritarians (but I repeat myself); both on the basis of the crushing harm they have inflicted over the centuries, and the colossal was…

How’s the water?

I don't mention water.

edit: poking around, this seems to be some reference to an American college commencement speech. I'm not an American, so I didn't get the cultural allusion, sorry.

Point of fact, I don't swim in your water at all. Any assumptions you may choose to make about the cultural perspective, skin colour, second language, religious tradition(s), countr(ies) of birth/residence/affiliation/upbringing, nationality of parents and/or in-laws, immigration status, education, newspaper subscriptions, food and musical preferences, or political leanings influencing my worldview are likely flat wrong.

Contraception is not dysfunction, and this is neither a parochial, nor (what-americans-call-"liberal") liberal assertion.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#400

Post by tonyedgecombe »

gregfjohnson wrote: post #357

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

I'm not sure having children so you won't be lonely in old age is a good thing.
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