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Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

abc7news.com

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Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#61

Post by boomboomsubban »

As the article doesn't provide any of the actual numbers of these events, Walnut Creek has 35 confirmed coronavirus cases. The county has 1155 cases and 33 deaths.

Suicides is a rare cause of death, usually around .01%. Unless the actual totals are also mentioned, I'm always skeptical of articles attributing some huge change in the rates to some phenomenon. If my really terrible math is correct, this could he around 10 more suicides over this period, which an overworked medical staff may have played a factor in.

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#62

Post by TeMPOraL »

deathgrips wrote: post #60
TeMPOraL wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Businesses are losing customers not because the government imposed a lockdown, but because people think they can stop the pandemic and avoid death by staying away. Though there's probably not going to be much enthusiasm from the media towards exploring this idea, since it puts the economic damage etc squarely on their heads. Perhaps let's first explore the question whether they were right . Epidemiology 101 seems t…

I'd like to remind people that the pandemic does not significantly increase the risk of death for healthy people under 50. It makes little sense to force young people to stay at home and get fired when the healthy are at little risk of dying and such a lockdown will not completely eliminate a pandemic.

I thought that by now we wouldn't have to go over this every time.

- This coronavirus spreads asymptomatically, which means people under 50 mingling with each other are deadly threats to people over 50. In particular, to their parents, grandparents, aunts, and neighbors.

- The chance of dying is low for young people, the chance of suffering serious damage to lungs and other internal organs that takes months to recover is a bit higher (some of it may be permanent, but that's yet to be determined).

- The chance of dying for everyone goes up several times if the medical system gets DDoSed by COVID patients.

EDIT:

> It makes little sense to force young people to stay at home and get fired

One of the most important effects of the lockdown being done top-down by governments is that employers can no longer fire people who wanted to protect themselves, their families and their communities from getting sick. Leaving this choice entirely to individuals is in practice equivalent to forcing them to choose between staying safe and having a job.

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#63

Post by TeMPOraL »

jxramos wrote: post #39
DanBC wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't draw too many conclusions from the article, but a rise in the rate of suicide would not be a surprise. We know that economic uncertainty, isolation, or lack of access to support all increase deaths by suicide.

Yep, it's interesting we're absorbing costs in known areas to unknown costs in unknown areas. I'd say focus on the known, and get more skeptical about the worst case scenarios we're comparing against. As always the "compared to what" question is sometimes not even an entity in reality for comparison but a hypothetical, maybe driven by fear.

Arguably, we know even less about by how much exactly "economic uncertainty, isolation, or lack of access to support" increases suicide rates than we know about how deadly the virus is.

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#64

Post by mehrdadn »

lern_too_spel wrote: post #40
watwut wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why was this downvoted? It is true that there is difference between "it is illegal to go outside" and "a lot changed, but you still can go for walk or sport".

It is not illegal to go outside in California either. Walking, running, bicycling, etc. are encouraged.

In case anyone's looking for a specific link:

"It’s okay to go outside to go for a walk, to exercise, and participate in healthy activities as long as you maintain a safe physical distance of six feet and gather only with members of your household. Below is a list of some outdoor recreational activities: Athletics, Badminton (singles), ..."

https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/...

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#65

Post by ardy42 »

ponker wrote: post #16
mehrdadn wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say that as if we've known this since January or something... and as if you have inside knowledge of what those people are investigating right now. Do you? The news on this has just come out. Maybe give them a chance to react before judging?

No, 3+ weeks ago it was obvious that we did “flatten the curve,” healthcare systems would not collapse, NYC would not need 30,000 ventilators, and that is when the stay at home orders should have been lifted. We’re not going to burrow underground until we have a vaccine, so the time is long overdue to start restoring our mental health and economic well being. Those at high risk can isolate further, but the general po…

> No, 3+ weeks ago it was obvious that we did “flatten the curve,” healthcare systems would not collapse, NYC would not need 30,000 ventilators, and that is when the stay at home orders should have been lifted.

That doesn't make any sense. You're basically advocating for stopping treatment as soon as progress is seen, not when the treatment is successful. It'd be like an oncologist saying:

> Good news! Your tumor is starting to respond to the chemo, and we've seen a reduction in its rate of growth, so we're going discontinue treatment.

The stay at home orders shouldn't be lifted when the curve is flattened, but when the capability is known to exist to keep it flat without the orders.

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#66

Post by greenyoda »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #61

As the article doesn't provide any of the actual numbers of these events, Walnut Creek has 35 confirmed coronavirus cases. The county has 1155 cases and 33 deaths. Suicides is a rare cause of death, usually around .01%. Unless the actual totals are also mentioned, I'm always skeptical of articles attributing some huge change in the rates to some phenomenon. If my really terrible math is correct, this could he around…

Suicide is not such a rare cause of death. In the U.S., suicide is the second most common form of death among young people, after accidents:

> According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) WISQARS Leading Causes of Death Reports, in 2017:

> Suicide was the tenth leading cause of death overall in the United States, claiming the lives of over 47,000 people.

> Suicide was the second leading cause of death among individuals between the ages of 10 and 34, and the fourth leading cause of death among individuals between the ages of 35 and 54.

> There were more than twice as many suicides (47,173) in the United States as there were homicides (19,510).

Source: https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/suicide.shtml (see Table 1 for the statistics)

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#67

Post by ponker »

ardy42 wrote: post #65
ponker wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, 3+ weeks ago it was obvious that we did “flatten the curve,” healthcare systems would not collapse, NYC would not need 30,000 ventilators, and that is when the stay at home orders should have been lifted. We’re not going to burrow underground until we have a vaccine, so the time is long overdue to start restoring our mental health and economic well being. Those at high risk can isolate further, but the general po…

> No, 3+ weeks ago it was obvious that we did “flatten the curve,” healthcare systems would not collapse, NYC would not need 30,000 ventilators, and that is when the stay at home orders should have been lifted. That doesn't make any sense. You're basically advocating for stopping treatment as soon as progress is seen, not when the treatment is successful. It'd be like an oncologist saying: > Good news! Your tumor is…

That assumes we go to pre-lockdown behaviors when the order is lifted. Data show that this is not true, that social distancing and work from home started before the orders and will continue after they are lifted. Lifting them allows people to make their own choices.

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#68

Post by [deleted] »

noobaccount wrote: post #50
TeMPOraL wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only many, many thousands of people die due to economic issues, that's still a huge win over what the virus would have done if left to run through the country at full speed. Economic problems would've happened anyway. Global supply chains were already in disarray even before March, as China essentially lost two months of manufacturing output, container ships stopped sailing, and the whole chain was pushed into osc…

I immediately know two things about you: 1. You don’t live alone. 2. You have a job. I think we’re all a little short on empathy these days.

[deleted]

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#69

Post by dang »

DXA9zE wrote: post #21

Note that the Netherlands was not "locked down." Only certain places of business have been suspended, like brothels. People go about their lives as normal.

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23269780.
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