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US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

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Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#171

I implore anyone to check out ‘Trade is War’ by Yash Tandon: “ Globalization has reduced many aspects of modern life to little more than commodities controlled by multinational corporations. Everything, from land and water to health and human rights, is today intimately linked to the issue of free trade. Conventional wisdom presents this development as benign, the sole path to progress. Yash Tandon, drawing on decade…

Can we please stop flagging comments like these? It's annoying and imho should lead to revoking flagging privileges for everyone part of the "ring". Deplatforming by mass-flagging is shit on Twitter and it's shit on HN as well.

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#172
post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All national security has a cost, access to TSMC is obviously national security issue, and appears US is positioning itself to reduce the cost of access to TSMC and increase it for China. National security is an ends, not a means; its ultimate form is shapelessness, not a strict definition.

I'll ask again, is there any example of international trade dispute/conflict that would not be about 'national security' with this understanding? Can you give one? Or does this intentionally and consciously reconceptualize all attempts to get advantage in international trade, or a business advantage for domestic corporations over foreign ones, as 'national security'?

Here’s a recent example:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/wtos-first-ruling-national-sec...

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#173
post #57

What is it that is actually preventing this from escalating to a hot war? It feels like we are just waiting for China to manufacture enough warships and nukes or killer drones or AGI with spiking neural networks or whatever can give them an edge so that a real war can start. It's even a war in the comments section. I don't think it's safe. How do we really know it can't progress to some kind of overt military activit…

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Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's fair-ish for Australia (but then again, Australia is part of the five eyes, so essentially a part of US global policy), but less so for the US. I believe most people see US China in conflict, they don't really consider China Australia, Vietnam or Japan.

The world (and the west) is not us only

Absolutely, I just wanted to point out that e.g. China Australia is most likely not considered it's own conflict, but rather a subconflict of China US, as Australia is part of the US bloc, just like every other Western nation and close allies in Asia.

China Russia would be considered a different conflict, as few people believe that Russia would be acting as a proxy for the US.

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#175
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It actually was fast tracked by the trade war. Government mandated domestic development of certain things after the US made it clear to China that they're not trustworthy trading partner. Not that China is, but kind of besides the point. I'm not sure why that's besides the point? The U.S. for years worked to invest in China and build them as a great trading partner and the CCP continued to just steal trade secrets…

Let's put it this way: China is a huge country, that has been very well governed in the past 30 years. Its people are proud, smart, ingenious, and they're working a lot for a lot less than their western counterparts. Given this, and given it lasts, it was inevitable for China to overtake the US in technology, economic power and importance on the world scene. Sooner or later, even playing by all the rules. Was the US…

Oh no doubt about that. It's just sad for the whole planet that they've chosen the path they've chosen (genocide, etc.) inb4 "but the U.S." .

Given that, I just don't think it makes much sense to engage with China unless the calculation is strictly that it benefits the U.S. (and the west in general). Like, if U.S. companies don't get access to the Chinese market then that means Chinese companies don't get access to the U.S. market, for example. To put it another way, from my current understanding I would say we should maintain U.S. hegemony at all costs short of nuclear war (or anything atrocious like that). Despite recent setbacks and general anxiety about U.S. actions over the last however many years, The U.S. has proven since WWII that it's a trustable world leader.

Although I'd certainly counter your claim that a "rise" is inevitable. Being large doesn't necessarily translate into anything. I think it's only a matter of time before the U.S. global reach is diminished, and China will certainly fill that void, but it won't solely be filled by China, especially in the Pacific.

Countries in Europe will also have to make tough choices. Is NATO still viable? Is it outdated? Should the U.S. pull out? For now those are easy decisions, but when push comes to shove the U.S. is strong-willed enough to do something like back out of NATO if they insist on integrating with Chinese systems. I don't think there will be a lot of having your cake and eating it too for the continent. Yet another disappointment.

From a tech perspective this will have quite the impact. China will eventually develop viable operating systems, but will you buy a laptop with one? Some are concerned about the NSA, but at least I can sort of fight the system. What if I'm from Cambodia? Do I want the Chinese spying on me instead or do I have more faith in the Americans?

Lots of questions and uncertainty here, in my view, except that the U.S. needs to pick up its toys and go home when it's being put at a disadvantage.

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doub't her detainment had anything at all to do about Canada, so in this case Canada was, it appeared merely toeing the US line, rather than having a specific stake in the matter. Really though the crux of the matter is wether Meng is held due to a real criminality as per Canadian/US law, or is being held as a political move, and signals from both US and Canadian administration has been confusing in this regard. So…

Canada does have a stake in the matter as Huawei hacked Nortel to steal their IP and then undercut all their business deals causing nortel to go bankrupt to the detriment of 94,000 employees and every single Canadian that owned just about and stock market fund. It is embarrassing that we haven’t banned Huawei products in Canada yet.

Nortel was hit by the tech bubble bursting, then engaged in financial fraud.[1][2] Blaming Huawei for Nortel's failure is a pretty massive rewrite of history.

1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nortel-files-for-bankruptc...

2. https://www.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSN1936265020080619

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#177
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a couple of points a) The deal china made with US companies is bring us your technology and we will manufacture for you cheaply. b) Giving technology as part of a deal and then retroactively calling it stealing is, well, strange. c) America because what it was because it "stole" technology from Europe during the industrial revolution. American companies understood what they were getting into and what the de…

> America because what it was because it "stole" technology from Europe during the industrial revolution. A falsehood. The US was one of the primary innovators during the industrial revolution, along with Germany, Britain and France. In the oil/mining, steel, railroad/transport, electricity, building, manufacturing, automobile, farming and communication segments the US held its own when it came to invention in the 18…

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Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#178

pretty shocking how biased these hn comments are against china. it's clear the US has lost leadership in the crucial technology of 5g and is trying everything it can to stop the leader, huawei. while i'm no china-phile, the US actions is just silly and will have far reaching consequences that will just quicken the demise of our technological prowess. and if you're gonna argue from the point of view that huawei broke…

> pretty shocking how biased these hn comments are against china.

And it took only a few years of media campaigns- the first one I remember was the announcement of spy chips in China-made boards, which turned out to be fake. It's scary how quickly you can steer public opinion to suit your needs.

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#179
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the danger of being the patsy. I think more and more people should try to transact business at an arm's distance with China in this kind of environment. The opposite is true as well. Your average Chinese businessperson should think long and hard about transacting any business with the US that requires their physical presence in the US. All nations have way too many laws. You will be in violation of one of them…

At least in a democracy with a free press, you (the average person) can try to start a news frenzy and bug your elected government representatives to apply pressure on your behalf.

I would argue that the US is not a representative democracy, and that it does not have a free press.

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#180
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll ask again, is there any example of international trade dispute/conflict that would not be about 'national security' with this understanding? Can you give one? Or does this intentionally and consciously reconceptualize all attempts to get advantage in international trade, or a business advantage for domestic corporations over foreign ones, as 'national security'?

Here’s a recent example: https://www.csis.org/analysis/wtos-first-ruling-national-sec...

Can you explain that example in your own words, and what you think makes it not an issue of national security? Or is your position just, hard to say, whatever the WTO says?

What the WTO determines has changed over time, and can depend on the balance of power. The WTO knows that if it keeps making rulings that countries just ignore, it loses power and legitmacy, it has to try not to push too hard.

But your opinion is whatever the WTO decides is correct?

To me, if the penalties against Huawei are really about negotiations over a government subsidy for a TSMC plant, I'd expect the WTO to rule against the US, if it was playing 'fair'. Which doesn't mean it will.

Here's an example of the WTO ruling against the US in a trade dispute with China, and the US retaliating to try to weaken the WTO.

https://www.ft.com/content/131a55ea-a84a-11e9-984c-fac8325aa...

Here's an expert writing on "Why Limiting U.S. Tech Exports to Chinese Companies Like Huawei Is a Risky Strategy",

https://itif.org/publications/2019/05/23/why-limiting-us-tec...

China has been working on challenging actions against Huawei specifically at the WTO; although it has to be careful because they know the WTO's rulings can be effected by politics, and the US (especially current administration) may not abide by the WTO ruling anyway, they need to try to remain on good terms to avoid escalating trade war, regardless of what the WTO might ultimately rule (which can take a while too).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/05/29/huawei-go...

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