Is it outrageous to say we need to end this quarantine right now? At this point, the cure is worse than the disease.
Where you live determines whether this it true or not. That's why we should have more granular policy decisions.
U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
751–760 of 877 posts
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#752Earlier quoted context omitted.
You say this like it’s a good thing? This is reflective of an economic system that isn’t functioning well. All this points to is the fact that income is highly concentrated in the hands of a few, and that opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed. I’m sure that went right over your head when you proudly decided to trumpet that nugget of information. Alas, I’m sure I’m just shouting into a void of ignoranc…
I never said it was a good thing, its merely a statistic. > opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed Sorry, I don't subscribe to this idea. I came from a blue collar family. Both parents work long hours to provide for our family. I was working when I was 12. I didn't own anything of value through HS or college. I worked several jobs to pay my way through college. I have lived a big chunk of my life below…
From one person who was born into poverty to another, I'll gladly call you ignorant because my version of your story involved me taking out a loan against my personal health in order to take a risk that either could've put me above water or doomed me.
I'm missing a lot of my teeth but it got me out of poverty. Do you think that was a good trade? Do you think it's a good thing that people have to make such decisions to survive?
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#753Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The thing that worries me is that attempting to prolong it as long as we are, we are basically setting up a stage for a greater depression Why?
Revolutions happen when the gap between public pretension and private reality becomes too large. The same could be said of stock market crashes.
Not really. They happen when whoever holds power gets weak and there is discontent simultaneously. As long as you are strong, the gap can be arbitrary large.
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#754Earlier quoted context omitted.
The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder. They're still human beings. They've been given this raw deal: For the greater good, you will now give up your job for an indefinite period of time, with no prospect of finding…
> It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder. They're still human beings. They've been given this raw deal: For the greater good, you will now give up your job for an indefinite period of time, with no prospect of finding like employment elsewhere. You have no choice, and if you refuse, you are a horrible person and in some cases you may face civil and criminal consequences. Lots of these peop…
Lots of these people (and a lot of the trumpy, NRA class at large) are bourgeoise, fwiw
Well, for one thing, in that subset there are still people getting a raw deal.
For another thing, it's a generally bad thing when people start formulating their political equations or thoughts of who's worthy to be listened to based on group stereotypes. "People like that," is just another form of, "those people," or "them."
I've been on the receiving end of stuff like that all my life, as being one of a few classes of minorities, some of it from people who might be characterized as "the trumpy, NRA class at large."
Ultimately, we're all individuals, and we're all human beings. Beware of people who rail against a group, then have you identify them by outward signs. Be especially wary, when those people start claiming to know the presence of bad thoughts in others, such that they "don't deserve" this or that. Be especially wary when the "don't deserve" starts extending to basic human rights.
In 2020, be triply wary if you are, in effect, being asked to think badly of and ignore the human rights of one particular group -- in the name of justice and human rights.
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#755Earlier quoted context omitted.
>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.
The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder. They're still human beings. They've been given this raw deal: For the greater good, you will now give up your job for an indefinite period of time, with no prospect of finding…
It would be much harder to "look down" on the protestors if their protests were backed by sanity. For every sign saying "I need to work to feed my family," you see 20 saying:
* Coronavirus is a hoax!
* Fake nurses!
* 5G cellphones cause coronavirus!
* Impeach Bill Gates!
* Vaccines are poison!
* Social Distancing is Communism!
* Freedom!!
There are reasonable arguments against the temporary shutdown, but the protesters are not part of that reasonable conversation.
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#756So I still think there's a huge disconnect between market perception of what's going on and what's actually going on. Last month I was saying "don't treat this is a temporary dip". Many have never known anything other than a bull market. The S&P 500 has rallied some ~20% since then (after a >30% fall mind you) so I've had a couple of people point to this like I'm wrong. The perception many seem to have is that everyt…
> I was also surprised to learn that S&P 500 earning shave been flat since 2014 while the market has gone gangbusters. That had to come crashing back to Earth eventually
I was also surprised recently to learn how flat earnings have been. The stock prices going gangbusters can be explained (at least partly) by earnings per share going up due to stock buybacks. If you go look, most companies have significantly fewer shares outstanding than they did in 2014.
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#757Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't covid-19 the #1 cause of death in NYC right now? And not, like, starvation? Saying the cure is worse than the disease shows a frightening lack of both empathy and objective reasoning. I don't want to construct a strawman, but I worry that what "reopen" people are really saying is "I don't care if X% of the US population dies - as long as I'm not one of them - if it means I can try to go back to normal." And try…
I think it's frightening that people like you are missing the bigger point here: X% of the population was going to die anyways, and these numbers are getting skewed out of proportion. Triggering a major recession will cause more deaths and despair over the long term. Start thinking for yourselves rather than believing everything you hear. Hospitals are now FINANCIALLY INCENTIVIZED to lump as many patients as possible…
That is why you look at excess deaths in area. And excess deaths are quite high. They make situation look worst then confirmed covid deaths.
Hospitals don't need formal covid patience. They need more testing.
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#758Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the UK there is a lot of payroll being paid by central government, plus there are interest free loans for small businesses. This is very good on the surface, however, there is a large chunk of wealth going to the rentier class. The rentseekers were encouraged under successive Tory and New Labour governments with schemes such as 'buy to let'. Now they are the only truly protected sector of society. The rich get ric…
> The rentseekers were encouraged under successive Tory and New Labour governments with schemes such as 'buy to let'. Now they are the only truly protected sector of society. The rich get richer. There's some truth to this, but I wouldn't say rentseekers are the only truly protected sector of society. My parents put their life savings into buying a block of flats in the 90s. They borrowed from every single person the…
That is unfortunate. All business has risk; becoming a property owner is no different. I anecdotally know a few people who bought second homes to rent out, and they're facing a crunch too. I don't see why, though, small-time landlords should be treated different from other small business owners when it comes to society-wide crises like these.
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#759Earlier quoted context omitted.
I never said it was a good thing, its merely a statistic. > opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed Sorry, I don't subscribe to this idea. I came from a blue collar family. Both parents work long hours to provide for our family. I was working when I was 12. I didn't own anything of value through HS or college. I worked several jobs to pay my way through college. I have lived a big chunk of my life below…
From one person who was born into poverty to another, I'll gladly call you ignorant because my version of your story involved me taking out a loan against my personal health in order to take a risk that either could've put me above water or doomed me. I'm missing a lot of my teeth but it got me out of poverty. Do you think that was a good trade? Do you think it's a good thing that people have to make such decisions t…
I think this is the crux of what drives me mad with these personal anecdotes of struggle. Is this the best we can do as a society, that a few poor people, through work and luck, can become less poor? What's the point of these stories, beyond just sharing one's personal experience? That the society we've got here is the best we can do?
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#760Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can someone explain how this works?
It doesn't. Bankruptcy courts and courts in general are pretty wise to the idea of "debts" and dubious last minute transfers to family members, close relatives, and so on. This guy is definitely not the first person to think of the idea.
Correct. You can't magically draft a senior lien. Unless it's a house in an HOA in a super lien state. Or you're the government and taxes are owed. So there are some instances where a senior lien can be recorded later, but an outstanding auto-loan - not that I'm aware of.
Skirting what's owed, playing games with manufactured leverage, getting repossessed - these are all the factors that cause people with lower credit scores to pay a lot more for their loans.