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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#491

Post by pansa2 »

ChrisRR wrote: post #386
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

It still surprises me that America has such a culture of leasing cars they can't afford for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month. Here in the UK if you said you were going to buy a car, most people would instantly assume you mean second hand. There's not much of a culture of buying or leasing new cars here, and even less of leasing cars that you really can't afford (outside of petrolheads anyway)

Plenty of people must be buying new cars in the UK - the average age of cars is only 8 years, and if you buy a used car it will be a UK model.

That’s quite different to somewhere like New Zealand, where the average age is twice that and almost nobody buys a brand new car - instead most cars are imported second hand from overseas.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#492

Post by peanut_is_yum »

rchaud wrote: post #354
gvhst wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I missed pretty much the same amount of school during SARS in Hong Kong in 2003. This was before any sort of remote learning was possible, I didn’t do school work for pretty much a whole semester. I didn’t feel that this held me back at all, however there were a few key differences in my end: - I was in 4th grade where school was less rigorous - I went to a private international school - While my parents were busy wo…

If you went to a private intl school, I imagine the tuition wasn't cheap. That right there is the difference. When you're paying big bucks, your parents will want to do everything to make sure you don't fall behind. I assume with that kind of education you also went on to complete a university degree of some kind. Contrast that to the public high school system in the US, where resources are lacking, and students may…

> still 5 figures a year minimum

Speaking from personal experience, if you did decently well academically in high school, you can get upwards of 16K a year in grants alone (Pell Grant ~6K, State Grant ~5K, University Grant ~5K) if your situation is documented poor based on your parent's and your tax returns.

My state school (UT Austin) charges tuition of about $5.5k/semester if you take >= 12 hours of classes a semester.

Of course, I realize this advice only applies to those who are demonstrably poor and perform decently academically. But college is (better than) free if you fall in this category.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#493

Post by MiroF »

karatestomp wrote: post #421
amyjess wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I was in third grade, we spent half the second semester learning about different kinds of whales. This is material I forgot pretty much as soon as it was over. When I graduated high school, my mom and I went through all my old elementary school material to see what we'd like to keep for sentimental value and what we're okay with throwing out to make room in the garage, and we were just overwhelmed by the sheer m…

High school: 45-50ish hours per week of class time and homework, waking up at 7:00 every friggin' morning to rush out the door, stuck in a building with little exposure to sunlight for hours on end. Work often assigned one day and due the very next. College: 25-30 hours per week of class time and homework, walks outdoors between classes, long, leisurely breaks throughout the day. Usually at most 3 early wake-up days…

I attended a low performing inner city high school and went to an ivy. I still feel that way.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#494

Post by A4ET8a8uTh0 »

soared wrote: post #422
A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote: post #39

I wish I could say I disagree, but to be perfectly honest, I was fully expecting a recession last year. As someone may have already mentioned though, between FED basically keeping the market afloat, stimulus working its way through the economy and dollar still riding as a safe haven, it is not that surprising that US economy did not crash, while a good chunk of population is at home and out of commission. The thing t…

>it is not that surprising that US economy did not crash S&P500 crashed 30% in Feb/Mar.

I do not want to make trite comments about how US economy is not the same as S&P500, but I will point that those losses were largely gained back for now. The US economy is still going ( and that is despite lockdown ). Hell, government could declare no business is essential and it would still go on in the form of black market.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#495

Post by ardy42 »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #419
thescriptkiddie wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only 52% of americans own any stock whatsoever [0], and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. [0] https://news.gallup.com/poll/190883/half-americans-own-stock... [1] https://www.nber.org/papers/w24085

All taxpayers (since they will have to make up for shortfalls) and recipients of defined benefit pensions (since they will have to accept reductions in benefits) are also indirectly exposed to changes equity prices.

> All taxpayers (since they will have to make up for shortfalls) and recipients of defined benefit pensions (since they will have to accept reductions in benefits) are also indirectly exposed to changes equity prices.

But that needs to be put in its proper context. Even if you have a small amount of stock or indirectly benefit from stock prices in some way, it'd be stupid if you let that mentally tie yourself to the stock market.

For instance, shortfalls in taxes do not necessarily need to be made up by "all taxpayers." With progressive taxation, they can be made up by some taxpayers (which will likely consist of most HN commentators, since software engineers are relatively wealthy).

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#496

Post by jb775 »

iffybookmark wrote: post #299
jb775 wrote: post #270

Is it outrageous to say we need to end this quarantine right now? At this point, the cure is worse than the disease.

Isn't covid-19 the #1 cause of death in NYC right now? And not, like, starvation? Saying the cure is worse than the disease shows a frightening lack of both empathy and objective reasoning. I don't want to construct a strawman, but I worry that what "reopen" people are really saying is "I don't care if X% of the US population dies - as long as I'm not one of them - if it means I can try to go back to normal." And try…

I think it's frightening that people like you are missing the bigger point here: X% of the population was going to die anyways, and these numbers are getting skewed out of proportion. Triggering a major recession will cause more deaths and despair over the long term. Start thinking for yourselves rather than believing everything you hear.

Hospitals are now FINANCIALLY INCENTIVIZED to lump as many patients as possible into the "Covid" column. Look at the stats on the sudden drop in historical "Other" column deaths in comparison to the "Covid" column (for this year)...they basically align perfectly....which tells you that hospitals are flagging people who were going to die anyways as "Covid" related.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#497

Post by ohazi »

jdhn wrote: post #455
mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.

> I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here.

What was that quote about society being three meals away from anarchy?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#498

Post by maedla »

nakedshorts wrote: post #33

One year ago, if you had asked me what would happen if we printed $4T+ (that's 20% of GDP for perspective) out of thin air and injected it into the economy, I would've told you massive hyperinflation and immediate collapse of the dollar. Instead, we see the US Dollar Index strengthening over the last 6 months [1]. The dominance of the United States as a global hegemonic superpower truly cannot be overstated; I'm in a…

I've been wondering what hyperinflation looks like in the 21st century. Just add some zeroes on our phone screens?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#499

Post by mc32 »

asdff wrote: post #434
mc32 wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people will not want social unrest. Social unrest leads to chaos and unpredictability. A better alternative is the less sexy but more productive political action obviously with buy in from the power brokers. Unrest is what happens in Venezuela or Yemen, etc. it doesn’t always have to be like that as those are extreme; never the less unrest is a medicine that is in most instances worse than the disease.

Not even 3 decades ago all it took was a jury verdict for anarchy and looting to sweep across LA, requiring the national guard to put down the unrest. People were breaking into stores to steal diapers. What will be the breaking point this time around?

We’ve had those flare ups before. Watts riots, early 1900s labor riots and repression.

They’ve had them in France, they’ve had them elsewhere. That’s a kind of unrest but not the kind I think we’re talking about.

I think what we’re talking about is the kind that results in overturning of the power structure. I don’t think we’re near that. I think 99.9% of the people do not want that outside of people on the extreme left and extreme right, interestingly for quite different reasons.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#500

Post by kaens »

low_common wrote: post #190
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Where do you live? That sounds apocalyptic.

this is like, basically all of non major urban area America
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