Earlier quoted context omitted.
State level data is collected using the exact same methods. In many places people with symptoms are told to self isolate until they have difficulty breathing etc. This makes state level data a highly biased sample. There are a few population studies for very specific areas, but no widespread statewide sampling anywhere. PS: The US has ~50,000 Coronavirus deaths. Assuming a very optimistic mortality rate of 0.5% sugge…
Your 'very optimistic mortality rate' makes a number of assumptions about the rate of asymptomatic cases, the population which experiences asymptomatic cases, etc. It ignores data coming out which suggest that interventions like ventilators may be harming more than helping. Making any assumptions about the mortality rate with the abysmal state of testing in the US and around the world is guesswork. Making assumptions…
The US has an older and sicker population than SK, and in NYC an overworked healthcare system. So, a 1% US mortality rate discounted to 0.5% due to recent infections not having time to die is extremely optimistic. It would also mean testing was only discovering 10% of cases.
PS: Many more people are exposed without having sufficient infections to trigger long term immunity. But, it’s herd immunity or deaths/long term issues we care about making such cases irrelevant as their still at risk.