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US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

reuters.com

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Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#51

Post by devmunchies »

Seibai wrote: post #12

It's worth noting that reopening early will also cause economic damage, and possibly more that not doing so would. People dying costs money, both in the lost productivity of the dead and reduced productivity among those emotionally affected. More people will die with an early end to lockdown than would if it was maintained for another month or two. I expect lots of grim economics research to come out of this.

you underestimate the boom that vacuums can create. It can give new companies, entrepreneurs, or employees the opportunity to fill the void, often more creatively than before.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#52

Post by shirro »

Just another Pearl Harbor/9-11 for the US. They could have responded early and mitigated this like Australia/NZ/Taiwan but now there is massive community spread there is no right answer. You open things up and more people die. You close them down and people likely die from poverty related things. The only sane solution was to act early and prevent this.

Why even have intelligence services, scientific expertise, governments, infectious disease agencies and emergency plans if they are all ignored until it is too late. I don't understand how so many countries messed this up.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#53

Post by mewpmewp2 »

Seibai wrote: post #12

It's worth noting that reopening early will also cause economic damage, and possibly more that not doing so would. People dying costs money, both in the lost productivity of the dead and reduced productivity among those emotionally affected. More people will die with an early end to lockdown than would if it was maintained for another month or two. I expect lots of grim economics research to come out of this.

Depends. In the conditions where coronavirus killed strictly only the old and weak and it had 2 percent death rate it would on average kill people around 2 years before their actual deaths. Let's just say everyone who would have died at 88 will now die at 86 instead.

This means that any costs are just advanced 2 years.

But since those 86 year olds do not provide value to the economy at this point, only consume resources, it will probably offset that by some margin. 2 years worth of resources and care.

Very simplistic way to look at this, but it could also make sense even if not only the elderies die. There is a possibility it is a net positive for the economy.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#54

Post by sfkdjf9j3j »

eric_b wrote: post #39
jedberg wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The elderly still need to interact with society. Infected but asymptotic people are even more dangerous to them, because they can still get infected. If the 22 year old check stand worker at the market goes to a bar and gets COVID-19 and then spreads it to the elderly patron they serve, that's bad. How can you protect against that? Also, they are now finding that COVID-19 causes strokes in young people. Those deaths…

The faster the young and less vulnerable get the disease and get over it, the faster the older folks can be let out. It's really not complicated. This disease is too contagious to contain. The only way forward is through. Lockdowns merely delay the inevitable. Yes, some people will die. We can't stay home forever. It's not just the US that wants out, but you go on thinking like you do and enjoy your privileged bubble…

Can I suggest you remove the personal attacks from your comments in here? It's hard to read your argument in good faith when it's full of insults.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#55

Post by germinalphrase »

ptero wrote: post #37

Seems that both sides, lock-down-until-proven-safe and stop-all-restrictions-yesterday, at least in the US are more focused on spin than facts. What we need is an open and honest discussion, where conflicting opinions are not ridiculed or shut down but vigorously debated. This would put a premium on clear logic substantiated by numbers and estimates on error bounds. And explanations that an average engineer can follo…

We don’t have a (publicly facing) political system that rewards nuance.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#56

Post by mikem170 »

betterattrib wrote: post #29
eric_b wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's remarkable that people are begging their governors to take away their civil liberties. Table 2 is all a rational person should need to see to realize the quarantine is the work of fear-mongering by politicians and the media: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm (For those who need an explanation - over the last two months, the data compiled in this chart shows that for people under 54, they are v…

Help me understand your position. I look at table 2 and see almost 30k people that died DESPITE a nationwide lockdown. Given what we know about the virus, that number would've hit 2M-4M had we not had the lockdown. What am I missing?

I think the idea is that as more data comes in it looks like this virus is not as bad as was first feared. There is no current data supporting a U.S. death toll of 2-4 million.

And a lockdown at this point doesn't save any lives, it only postpones the inevitable spread of the virus. It is not reasonable to stay in lockdown for a couple years until there is a vaccine, not for a virus that kills only 1 of 500 people.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#57

Post by jedberg »

eric_b wrote: post #39
jedberg wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The elderly still need to interact with society. Infected but asymptotic people are even more dangerous to them, because they can still get infected. If the 22 year old check stand worker at the market goes to a bar and gets COVID-19 and then spreads it to the elderly patron they serve, that's bad. How can you protect against that? Also, they are now finding that COVID-19 causes strokes in young people. Those deaths…

The faster the young and less vulnerable get the disease and get over it, the faster the older folks can be let out. It's really not complicated. This disease is too contagious to contain. The only way forward is through. Lockdowns merely delay the inevitable. Yes, some people will die. We can't stay home forever. It's not just the US that wants out, but you go on thinking like you do and enjoy your privileged bubble…

There is no evidence that getting the disease prevents you from getting it again. Furthermore there are currently four known strains, so you’d have to get it four times if you even can get immunity.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#58

Post by newacct583 »

mewpmewp2 wrote: post #41
newacct583 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is: not much more than the cost of "opening up" right now. Because "lockdown" isn't magic the government can control at a whime. People aren't going to engage in a full employment economy if they're justifiably scared of dying. Or, possibly but not probably: the cost of opening up is vastly higher if we end up looking at 2-300k needlessly dead Americans.

But further lockdown can also mean more deaths from low economic activity. How do you know which deaths are worse?

Is there any reasonable modelling that puts worst case US recession deaths in the hundreds of thousands? I saw a pretty spun looking number in (I think) The Federalist back in March that claimed a staggering 40k deaths if we didn't open up right away. Needless to say that spin didn't survive reality well, that's not only the median worst case of the viral outbreak it's the status quo.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#59

Post by jedberg »

tdhoot wrote: post #49
jedberg wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point of that is to counteract the claims of politicians that Americans want to return to normal. They don't. Health officials have been saying to stay home all along. It's politicians that are saying it's ok not to. I don't know about you, but I'd rather take advice from health officials instead of politicians.

I'm not saying health officials are wrong, but they're rightfully focused primarily on health implications. Politicians should be responsible for determining policy -- balancing economic, legal, and health considerations after listening to experts.

Politicians are supposed to represent the people. The majority of people want to stay home.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#60

Post by ImprovedSilence »

eric_b wrote: post #50
IIAOPSW wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fear mongering? You can literally see the exponential growth just looking at the number of digits in the first column of table 1!

You know 7,600 people die every day in the US right? 2.8M a year. We don't shut anything down for those. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm Im not saying COVID isn't a big deal. I'm saying the response was an overreaction. We need perspective on the actual severity. If the serological studies coming out are accurate, the total number of deaths is likely ~250k max. That's an alzheimers + suicides. National po…

>> If the serological studies coming out are accurate

That's a BIG optimistic assumption to make. And every optimistic assumption that's been made relative to COVID has only fucked us over further. I'm not sure I'm ready to buy into that yet, cuz if it's off and the CFR is tipped the other way, we could be talking up to 30M deaths, not just 250k...

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