Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 89 posts

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#11

Post by newacct583 »

brightball wrote: post #9

We have to find a way to get to a new normal, where we can go about our daily lives with some reasonable level of safety measures. It’s simply not sustainable to maintain a shut down long term.

Isn't what this article is about? "Some" states are "opening up", so I guess we'll get data soon as to how much economic benefit they got vs. how many lives were lost.

This doesn't sound, to me, like a very ethical experiment given that the cost of waiting it out for another two-ish months is comparatively easily calculated and not terribly "doomsday" in scope. Whereas a return to the days of late March where the death count was doubling twice a week very much... is.

Now... in practice? The "lockdown" won't really be released like that in these states, because people aren't going to be willing to travel or dine even if it's "legal". So these states will probably see a moderately worst outbreak and see moderately better results, and we'll all get to continue these arguments forever.

Probably. Or it could be a total disaster. I wouldn't bet on that result, exactly, but I wouldn't be shocked if it happened either.

For evidence: consider pork production. That is an "essential" industry. It's never been "locked down". Yet per the news today I see that 25% of the industry is effectively shut down by viral outbreaks anyway. That's what we should expect if we insist people go to work -- unexpected, uncontrolled outbreaks in locations and businesses and industries. We're not going to get to anything resembling a normal economy.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#12

Post by Seibai »

It's worth noting that reopening early will also cause economic damage, and possibly more that not doing so would.

People dying costs money, both in the lost productivity of the dead and reduced productivity among those emotionally affected. More people will die with an early end to lockdown than would if it was maintained for another month or two.

I expect lots of grim economics research to come out of this.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#13

Post by downvoteme1 »

r00fus wrote: post #7

Opening up does at least one thing: removes the ability for workers to claim unemployment benefits if the employer also opens up. More zero-hour contracts? You betcha.

Even if the employer opens up, they will not call all of their workers back. So the workers who are not called back can still claim unemployment .

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#14

Post by sojournerc »

Seibai wrote: post #12

It's worth noting that reopening early will also cause economic damage, and possibly more that not doing so would. People dying costs money, both in the lost productivity of the dead and reduced productivity among those emotionally affected. More people will die with an early end to lockdown than would if it was maintained for another month or two. I expect lots of grim economics research to come out of this.

Where I am in Colorado the decision to re-open is being made at the county and city level based on local information

Rural areas that are less impacted may reopen with little risk. More urban areas need to be more careful.

I don't think it's necessary to spread fear about reopening. Hopefully your local authority is well-informed enough to make good decisions regarding reopening.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#15

Post by eric_b »

Seibai wrote: post #12

It's worth noting that reopening early will also cause economic damage, and possibly more that not doing so would. People dying costs money, both in the lost productivity of the dead and reduced productivity among those emotionally affected. More people will die with an early end to lockdown than would if it was maintained for another month or two. I expect lots of grim economics research to come out of this.

Eh, we'll see. I happen to think the economic consequences are far worse than the health ones. Time will tell which of us is right. I bet if you were a small business owner who was going to fold your life's work because of the lockdown, instead of a privileged tech worker, you wouldn't be singing the same tune.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#16

Post by maxerickson »

sojournerc wrote: post #14
Seibai wrote: post #12

It's worth noting that reopening early will also cause economic damage, and possibly more that not doing so would. People dying costs money, both in the lost productivity of the dead and reduced productivity among those emotionally affected. More people will die with an early end to lockdown than would if it was maintained for another month or two. I expect lots of grim economics research to come out of this.

Where I am in Colorado the decision to re-open is being made at the county and city level based on local information Rural areas that are less impacted may reopen with little risk. More urban areas need to be more careful. I don't think it's necessary to spread fear about reopening. Hopefully your local authority is well-informed enough to make good decisions regarding reopening.

I live in a rural region of ~300,000 people with less than 100 reported cases. 2000 negative tests.

The last I heard one of the county public health officials say anything, it was that they don't have enough testing to know what is going on in the community.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#17

Post by eric_b »

sheeshkebab wrote: post #3

“Opinion polls have generally shown a bipartisan majority of Americans want to remain at home to protect themselves from the coronavirus, despite the impact to the economy.” I’ll trust public opinion with my next health decision, it’s always spot on.

It's remarkable that people are begging their governors to take away their civil liberties.

Table 2 is all a rational person should need to see to realize the quarantine is the work of fear-mongering by politicians and the media:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

(For those who need an explanation - over the last two months, the data compiled in this chart shows that for people under 54, they are vanishingly unlikely to die from COVID. It shows that there is no rational reason that people under 54 should be locked down.

The flu killed 5x more people under 24 in the last two months than COVID did)

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#19

Post by JonathonW »

happytoexplain wrote: post #8
icelancer wrote: post #2

It'll get far worse than that, with the Western Pact of States looking to have 80% of the lockdown through at least June, with no concrete plans or metrics to open up beyond that.

No concrete plan to open up? Isn't that exactly what you want in a pandemic situation? You can only forecast such a thing so far ahead.

A "concrete plan" in this situation would include milestones (based on infection rates and the like) for easing restrictions and for re-imposing them if things regress, rather than specific dates, which can't really be forecast.

For example, here's Nashville's phased-reopening plan: https://www.asafenashville.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Ro... ... It's based around phased reopenings of businesses as specific periods of time elapse with an improvement in metrics.

Post reply on HN