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US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

reuters.com

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Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#31

Post by newacct583 »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #25
newacct583 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't what this article is about? "Some" states are "opening up", so I guess we'll get data soon as to how much economic benefit they got vs. how many lives were lost. This doesn't sound, to me, like a very ethical experiment given that the cost of waiting it out for another two-ish months is comparatively easily calculated and not terribly "doomsday" in scope. Whereas a return to the days of late March where the dea…

That's interesting, I hadn't seen calculations like that. What's the cost of waiting it out for another two-ish months?

The point is: not much more than the cost of "opening up" right now. Because "lockdown" isn't magic the government can control at a whime. People aren't going to engage in a full employment economy if they're justifiably scared of dying.

Or, possibly but not probably: the cost of opening up is vastly higher if we end up looking at 2-300k needlessly dead Americans.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#32

Post by jinushaun »

"Royal Rose, 39, owner of a tattoo studio in Greeley, Colorado, told Reuters.

Rose said she was reopening her shop after closing a month ago, not because she wants to but because bills are piling up and she feels she has no choice."

I don't think people will be rushing out to get tattoos...

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#33

Post by jedberg »

eric_b wrote: post #28
jedberg wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure what I'm supposed to see in Table 2. I see more dead than Influenza. And that's despite most everything being closed. We don't close the country for influenza. So clearly this thing is way worse .

Thanks for not even trying. What you should see if you open your eyes and your mind is that anyone under 54 is many times more likely to die from something else other than COVID. Surely even someone such as yourself could imagine a scenario where not EVERYONE needs to be locked down? Perhaps just those in the higher risk brackets?

The elderly still need to interact with society. Infected but asymptotic people are even more dangerous to them, because they can still get infected.

If the 22 year old check stand worker at the market goes to a bar and gets COVID-19 and then spreads it to the elderly patron they serve, that's bad.

How can you protect against that?

Also, they are now finding that COVID-19 causes strokes in young people. Those deaths were not counted as COVID related.

We just have no idea how this virus works or what it does to the human body.

Every health official says "stay home". I tend to agree with them.

The solution is not to "open the economy", it's for the government to step in and help people.

Why are we the only country that is begging to reopen? Perhaps it's our social safety net that needs reevaluation, not our lockdown.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#34

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

newacct583 wrote: post #31
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's interesting, I hadn't seen calculations like that. What's the cost of waiting it out for another two-ish months?

The point is: not much more than the cost of "opening up" right now. Because "lockdown" isn't magic the government can control at a whime. People aren't going to engage in a full employment economy if they're justifiably scared of dying. Or, possibly but not probably: the cost of opening up is vastly higher if we end up looking at 2-300k needlessly dead Americans.

It sounds like you're saying it's not easy to calculate and we don't know whether or not it's "doomsday" in scope.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#35

Post by IIAOPSW »

eric_b wrote: post #17
sheeshkebab wrote: post #3

“Opinion polls have generally shown a bipartisan majority of Americans want to remain at home to protect themselves from the coronavirus, despite the impact to the economy.” I’ll trust public opinion with my next health decision, it’s always spot on.

It's remarkable that people are begging their governors to take away their civil liberties. Table 2 is all a rational person should need to see to realize the quarantine is the work of fear-mongering by politicians and the media: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm (For those who need an explanation - over the last two months, the data compiled in this chart shows that for people under 54, they are v…

Fear mongering? You can literally see the exponential growth just looking at the number of digits in the first column of table 1!

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#36

Post by 616c »

eric_b wrote: post #15
Seibai wrote: post #12

It's worth noting that reopening early will also cause economic damage, and possibly more that not doing so would. People dying costs money, both in the lost productivity of the dead and reduced productivity among those emotionally affected. More people will die with an early end to lockdown than would if it was maintained for another month or two. I expect lots of grim economics research to come out of this.

Eh, we'll see. I happen to think the economic consequences are far worse than the health ones. Time will tell which of us is right. I bet if you were a small business owner who was going to fold your life's work because of the lockdown, instead of a privileged tech worker, you wouldn't be singing the same tune.

Are you a small business owner? You seem to have very strong opinions aligned with your take on their point of view, so I'm curious.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#37

Post by ptero »

Seems that both sides, lock-down-until-proven-safe and stop-all-restrictions-yesterday, at least in the US are more focused on spin than facts.

What we need is an open and honest discussion, where conflicting opinions are not ridiculed or shut down but vigorously debated. This would put a premium on clear logic substantiated by numbers and estimates on error bounds. And explanations that an average engineer can follow; not super-complicated things that require a supercomputer to run and a bunch of PhDs to interpret.

In the end it comes down to figuring out what additional risks we, as a society, are willing to accept to stave off specific erosions of personal freedoms and economic impacts. If we do not learn to make this choice consciously it will be made for us by whoever is loudest today (and swapped by whoever is loudest tomorrow).

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#38

Post by aaron-lebo »

jinushaun wrote: post #32

"Royal Rose, 39, owner of a tattoo studio in Greeley, Colorado, told Reuters. Rose said she was reopening her shop after closing a month ago, not because she wants to but because bills are piling up and she feels she has no choice." I don't think people will be rushing out to get tattoos...

You must not know many people with tattoos. ;)

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#39

Post by eric_b »

jedberg wrote: post #33
eric_b wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for not even trying. What you should see if you open your eyes and your mind is that anyone under 54 is many times more likely to die from something else other than COVID. Surely even someone such as yourself could imagine a scenario where not EVERYONE needs to be locked down? Perhaps just those in the higher risk brackets?

The elderly still need to interact with society. Infected but asymptotic people are even more dangerous to them, because they can still get infected. If the 22 year old check stand worker at the market goes to a bar and gets COVID-19 and then spreads it to the elderly patron they serve, that's bad. How can you protect against that? Also, they are now finding that COVID-19 causes strokes in young people. Those deaths…

The faster the young and less vulnerable get the disease and get over it, the faster the older folks can be let out. It's really not complicated.

This disease is too contagious to contain. The only way forward is through. Lockdowns merely delay the inevitable. Yes, some people will die. We can't stay home forever. It's not just the US that wants out, but you go on thinking like you do and enjoy your privileged bubble.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#40

Post by usaar333 »

aviraldg wrote: post #10
icelancer wrote: post #2

It'll get far worse than that, with the Western Pact of States looking to have 80% of the lockdown through at least June, with no concrete plans or metrics to open up beyond that.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California...

Those aren't really metrics - it's very subjective. e.g. I read those 6 metrics and I'm like "ok, Bay Area can lift SIP".
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