Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

Post by roel_v » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:44 AM UTC

feral wrote: post #128

alexbanks wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a thing I've been thinking about a lot. We're quick to say "We're not testing enough", but also quick to throw statistics around "disproving" the amount of asymptomatic cases. I am on the side of "It's probably orders of magnitude widespread than most countries think", and the number of totally asymptomatic cases is actually far far higher. You can't test only the old and the already sick and then accurately…

Humanity's understanding of this disease is much more sophisticated than the two comments above this would imply. Researchers are not stupidly looking at Diamond Princess and getting confused because the population is old. Rather it's a powerful dataset because it enables us to quantify the asymptomatic people of all ages, because people were tested fairly exhaustively before being allowed leave, regardless of sympto…

Post by youareostriches » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:46 AM UTC

Loughla wrote: post #22

manifestsilence wrote: post #9

So people who are fit enough to pass active duty basic training tend not to have symptoms. Solution: put everyone through basic training?

Solution: put everyone through basic training. Corequisite Solution: make everyone be 18-34 years old.

Post by glofish » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:49 AM UTC

inamberclad wrote: post #29

glofish wrote: post #4

I find this to be good even excellent news. It is quite possible the virus is not nearly as dangerous and lethal as people fear. If the young have nothing to worry about the prospects are pretty good. The best way to reach herd immunity is to have lots of immune people around you.

In the future, you might have a lot of immune people around you. Right now, however, it means you have a lot of invisibly sick people around you.

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 12:53 AM UTC

robbiep wrote: post #184

henrikschroder wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No country except Iceland or South Korea knows how many are infected, everyone else's numbers are horribly wrong. But death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie. Sure, different countries are counting deaths differently, making it hard to compare them to each other, but the trajectories don't lie. And if you look at growth trajectories, no country is experiencing uncontrolled exponential growth at this point…

Austria did a relatively large scale antibody sample of its pop (0). Seems to discredit the notion that infections are vastly different than modelling. (0) https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/less-than-1-of...

Post by paul_f » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 1:02 AM UTC

cameldrv wrote: post #173

btilly wrote: post #27

This figure does not surprise me. It is in line with Iceland finding that 50% of people they tested were asymptomatic. However as https://www.propublica.org/article/what-we-need-to-understan... notes, in other samples about 75% of people who were asymptomatic at the time of the test went on to develop symptoms. So the fact that these sailors are currently asymptomatic does not mean that they will remain so. See https…

Agree on the asymptomatic/presymptomatic thing. Also, I'd imagine the doubling time on an aircraft carrier is a lot shorter than in normal society. There are a lot of people packed into very small spaces. Suppose the doubling time on an aircraft carrier is 5 days. That means half your infections are in the 5 day presymptomatic window.