Might also be important to note that sailors on an aircraft carrier are primarily college-aged.
Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
121–130 of 544 posts
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Netherlands has 3.3k deaths vs 29k confirmed cases, which would give a CFR of ~10% I.e. the Netherlands aren't testing much. A 10x reduction there brings it back to the CFR range we see in countries with bigger testing programs. I'm not a specialist but have been following this for a while, and have yet to see evidence the IFR for this isnt around 0.5-1% (assuming decent healthcare). That's what we saw in the Dia…
My current bet is younger healthy people are more likely to be asymptomatic. And older people much less so. Theodore Roosevelt with likely a young population, most are asymptomatic. Diamond Princess much older population most are symptomatic.
This is a thing I've been thinking about a lot. We're quick to say "We're not testing enough", but also quick to throw statistics around "disproving" the amount of asymptomatic cases. I am on the side of "It's probably orders of magnitude widespread than most countries think", and the number of totally asymptomatic cases is actually far far higher. You can't test only the old and the already sick and then accurately assess likelihood to develop symptoms. Your sample is totally wrong.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
We need widespread antigen testing in a place like Italy or NYC or Sweden. Would be so informative.
Germany and Finland are doing this. Here are some results already completed in a German town showing that 14% of people tested positive for antibodies... https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-1...
That study did their research in a town that was already infected, meaning that our understanding of the infection rate for Covid-19 is probably lower than reality.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#124All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting (after all, increase the denominator, the % goes down). The countries with the lowest death rates are also the countries that did the most comprehensive testing. Ditto for this aircraft carrier. Of course governments and outlets are fearmongering lest they be accused of not doing enough, but this thing…
No amount of lowering the IFR will change what has happened and is happening in New York, Italy and Spain
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
This reasoning seems like it needs data. Do we have any proof that Coronavirus immunity is similar across different viruses? Why should we expect that things that have the same name have the same immune response? This is a pretty cavalier take when lives are at stake.
Literally every health authority including the WHO is assuming immunity will be a thing...
Please show me the data you have so we can have a shared understanding of the facts. Until then, there is no reason to continue this discussion.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#126There are multiple, dynamic risk-factors being discovered, treatment options, and different genomes of this species of virus circulating. 1) Being overweight is a major risk-factor for requiring critical care, and most US military folks aren't weight-enabled. 2) Being older is another risk factor. Also, most US military folks aren't well-aged either, typically in their 20's-30's. 3) Having type A blood group is a pot…
> 5) SARS-CoV-2 as a species maybe drifting genetically towards more communicability but less virulence. H1N1, HIV and others have also shown this pattern.
This is not true for either of those diseases.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#127All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting (after all, increase the denominator, the % goes down). The countries with the lowest death rates are also the countries that did the most comprehensive testing. Ditto for this aircraft carrier. Of course governments and outlets are fearmongering lest they be accused of not doing enough, but this thing…
Explain the bodies piled up on hospital hallways.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
My current bet is younger healthy people are more likely to be asymptomatic. And older people much less so. Theodore Roosevelt with likely a young population, most are asymptomatic. Diamond Princess much older population most are symptomatic.
This is a thing I've been thinking about a lot. We're quick to say "We're not testing enough", but also quick to throw statistics around "disproving" the amount of asymptomatic cases. I am on the side of "It's probably orders of magnitude widespread than most countries think", and the number of totally asymptomatic cases is actually far far higher. You can't test only the old and the already sick and then accurately…
Humanity's understanding of this disease is much more sophisticated than the two comments above this would imply.
Researchers are not stupidly looking at Diamond Princess and getting confused because the population is old.
Rather it's a powerful dataset because it enables us to quantify the asymptomatic people of all ages, because people were tested fairly exhaustively before being allowed leave, regardless of symptoms, and because we've had enough time for many of the cases to play out.
The diamond princess data revealed a large number of asymptomatic cases in China, the absence of which were skewing the detected cases in China much older.
Anyway, you don't need to think anything complicated about correcting for ages, etc
You can just look at the data from the Netherlands where they conclude they have 3% population infection, by looking at the random serological testing, and then look at the number of confirmed deaths they have, and do the very simple math.
It's very hard to do that and then say we're missing say 10x higher numbers of asymptomatic cases all over the place.
This blog post I wrote a while back is Ireland specific but has figures on CFR and IFR I think are still valid, and references to the academic articles I got them from: https://medium.com/@fergal.reid/predicting-the-impact-of-cor...
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#129Earlier quoted context omitted.
if the US has 33K deaths and the death rate is 0.6% then the US must have at least 5 million cases. If the death rate is lower (most likely around 0.3%) then it means 10 million infections. Also a good news actually.
Those death rates in US are optimistic in my opinion. What if the actual rate is higher because of worse health in impoverished demographics, or the simple fact people might avoid healthcare because of its prohibitive costs?
Lots of people in NYC are getting dragged out of their homes in body bags that will never get tested.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/teams-retrieving-280-bodies-day-1...
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
bingo It seems like most everyone keep glossing over the fact that if you have a disease that doubles its infection count every x days, and it takes around x days to show symptoms you would always expect about 50% of infected to be asymptomatic at the time of testing
I feel that the asymptomatic thing is more wishful thinking in places where infection control has failed. Other countries have shown that you can contain the spread of Covid19, even if there are asymptomatic (or more realistic, low symptom severity) cases.
How do we KNOW it's controlled? Asymptomatic people are not, as a rule, tested, so actual infection rates could be massive.