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Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

reuters.com

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Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#141

Post by henrikschroder »

TylerE wrote: post #130
ImaCake wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel that the asymptomatic thing is more wishful thinking in places where infection control has failed. Other countries have shown that you can contain the spread of Covid19, even if there are asymptomatic (or more realistic, low symptom severity) cases.

How do we KNOW it's controlled? Asymptomatic people are not, as a rule, tested, so actual infection rates could be massive.

No country except Iceland or South Korea knows how many are infected, everyone else's numbers are horribly wrong.

But death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie. Sure, different countries are counting deaths differently, making it hard to compare them to each other, but the trajectories don't lie. And if you look at growth trajectories, no country is experiencing uncontrolled exponential growth at this point: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-daily-deaths-trajec...

If deaths are on a downward trajectory, it means that infections have been on a downward trajectory for weeks. And that's how we can know that it's controlled, without knowing how many have it or have had it, while being asymptomatic.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#142

Post by tsimionescu »

gnopgnip wrote: post #107
scarface74 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Especially once you consider all of the pre-existing conditions that make you ineligible to be in the military.

There are a lot of people who have pre existing conditions and have no idea, even in the military. There was a marine recruit who died during basic training because of a heart defect, it wasn't an issue his whole life and it didn't come up as a problem during the in depth physical you get before hand.

Sure but that is irrelevant. It is absolutely certain that the rate of most diseases associated with increased Covid19 risks is much lower in the active army than in the general population, even if it is not 0.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#143

Post by usaar333 »

ashtonkem wrote: post #131
usaar333 wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough, but would there be a reason it would be different? And even if it were, is that actually relevant? Anyway, here's some IFR estimations for covid by Imperial college: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... You see significantly higher multipliers by age group than for flu. As one example, they are guessing teenagers have 1/17th the mortality rate of say a 40 year old. For flu (goi…

There is absolutely plenty of reason for the infection rate to be different by demographic: we closed schools down . We don’t do that for the flu.

We also don't Shelter in place for flu. Bay Area school closure date is 1 day before SIP.

Sweden and Iceland never closed schools for young kids. Data doesn't look any different.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#144

Post by Jommi »

btilly wrote: post #27

This figure does not surprise me. It is in line with Iceland finding that 50% of people they tested were asymptomatic. However as https://www.propublica.org/article/what-we-need-to-understan... notes, in other samples about 75% of people who were asymptomatic at the time of the test went on to develop symptoms. So the fact that these sailors are currently asymptomatic does not mean that they will remain so. See https…

Yeah, I think we should be more careful with using the word "asymptomatic" as that is quite different from "presymptomatic".

AFAIK COVID seems to have some case where people are purely "asymptomatic", but with this current hot topic of symptoms or not, lots of articles are writing about presymptomatic people they assume will be asymptomatic. Confusing.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#145

Post by __s »

gnopgnip wrote: post #107
scarface74 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Especially once you consider all of the pre-existing conditions that make you ineligible to be in the military.

There are a lot of people who have pre existing conditions and have no idea, even in the military. There was a marine recruit who died during basic training because of a heart defect, it wasn't an issue his whole life and it didn't come up as a problem during the in depth physical you get before hand.

Existence doesn't exclude filtering beyond filtering every case

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#146

Post by gpm »

ashtonkem wrote: post #133
gpm wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more likely that cases/infections is skewed by age, because we test severe cases more than mild cases, than infections as a whole is skewed by age. Assuming infections are uniformly distributed, or rather have a similar distribution to the flu, seems entirely reasonable until we have good data suggesting otherwise.

There is no reason to believe that infections aren’t skewed by age. We took a wide range of preventative measures that are completely unique within living memory, such as closing down most schools and colleges. Until we’ve actually done statistical analysis on who got sick, any predictions based on historical trends are largely invalid.

Sure, but there is also no reason to believe that they are. There is however very good reason to believe that testing is skewed by age.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#147

Post by mabbo »

azinman2 wrote: post #109
bhouston wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need widespread antigen testing in a place like Italy or NYC or Sweden. Would be so informative.

Some percent of confirmed recovered cases never develop antibodies it seems.

Then how did they recover? If your body has no antibodies to the virus then why would the virus ever stop spreading within you?

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#149

Post by ashtonkem »

usaar333 wrote: post #143
ashtonkem wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely plenty of reason for the infection rate to be different by demographic: we closed schools down . We don’t do that for the flu.

We also don't Shelter in place for flu. Bay Area school closure date is 1 day before SIP. Sweden and Iceland never closed schools for young kids. Data doesn't look any different.

That’s a good argument.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#150

Post by grandmczeb »

dboreham wrote: post #139
TylerE wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we KNOW it's controlled? Asymptomatic people are not, as a rule, tested, so actual infection rates could be massive.

By lack of a pile of bodies.

If there’s a lot of uncounted asymptotic cases the IFR is correspondingly lower.
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